Is SH% the biggest marker of unsustainability? What % does production become 'unsustainable'?

[TheUntradeables]

If I have a player who's shooting at 27.7%, should I try to sell high? Or just hold onto him and hope it stays high? I've seen people suggest that anything over 15% is sustainable?

[LuigiC173]

18% is suspect, 25% and beyond is entirely unsustainable. Great example this year is Reilly Smith who started the year producing like a superstar shooting 25%. Now look at him down to 10%. Elite shooters can sustain higher % but almost 28% will regress to the mean.

[TheUntradeables]

18% is suspect, 25% and beyond is entirely unsustainable. Great example this year is Reilly Smith who started the year producing like a superstar shooting 25%. Now look at him down to 10%. Elite shooters can sustain higher % but almost 28% will regress to the mean.

So I should sell high on Sam Reinhart? Or just hold and hope?

[rataylor22]

Dynasty? One year? Cap league? Lots of details necessary to answer the question properly. Reinhart, at this point, is unlikely to significantly regress this year. But he’s also unlikely to ever repeat this year.

[TheUntradeables]

One year no cap - std h2h yahoo cars league.

[rataylor22]

Unless you can get like Draosaitl, McDavid, Kucherov, etc. A true top 10-15 player, I would keep Reinhart

[LuigiC173]

Reinhart in a contract year adds extra motivation to produce but as said above don't expect this ever again.

[Belexus75]

in one year league you keep hot players and hope they dont get Aleberta treatment at -50C!

nobody will get you what he is really wort atm....ill be surprised if he ever comes within 20 points of this years production again...shows you how special he is and how lucky you are that you drafted him.

In one year league players like him is what wins you, in most leagues GMs are knowledgeable and everybody can draft well in early rounds. Its later round gems that win championships. Im assuming you drafted him later than 5th round?

[rufio.85]

Impossible he keeps the same shooting % pace in the second half. If you can flip him for a guy like Draisaitl in a one-year setting, I would do it.

But like others said, it’s a long shot and you might as well enjoy the ride while it lasts.

[senryu]

For evidence, we can look at a recent case study on the subject:

https://forums.dobbersports.com/show...the-regression

[skinnypete88]

Late post here but as has been said, you will likely not get a superstar in return for him so best just to sit back and enjoy the ride.

As a side note on SH% and sustainability, his average from the three seasons prior to this is 16%.

If he were to be shooting at that rate this season he would be down to around 20 goals and not the 34 goals he's at now.

However if we take that 20 goals and his 24 assists in 46 games played, he's still at a 0.96 pace which is better than the 0.82 pace he had last season.

The point is, even if he has an 8% drop in shooting percentage (which is big) he is still performing better than last season and you should reasonably expect a near point-per-game pace for the remainder of the season. Anything else is a bonus.

[lucafen4]

There's a case to ride Reinhart for the season - see Kuzmenko

But he's running 13% above his career average. hell, 32 SH% in last 10 games (11 goals 35 shots) so he's actually doubling down.

You want a royal return for Reinhart in a 1yr league. Like Marner and another stud due for serious positive regression