Trade for Brady Tkachuk (Kaprizov + Nurse)

[LawMan]

Got offered a reasonable trade I am seriously debating.

League in signature.

My Brady Tkachuk for K. Kaprizov and D. Nurse.
I would drop Ryan Strome.

Relevant information:
12 teams head-to-head.
I am in first in PIMs, SOG, HITs,
10th in A, 7th in Points.

Also, currently only have 3 D-men, I float between 3 and 4 (roster 4) depending on weekly schedules.
This seems like a fair deal, but Kaprizov has unperformed so far this year, is he a 90+ point player or the 70 point player he is currently?

Do you like this trade for me? Thanks.

[senryu]

If you normalize Kaprizov's shooting percentage to career rates, you get 5 more goals, bringing his line to 30 games, 15 goals, 17 assists. His PDO is a little under 100, so I don't think there are a lot of unrealized assists. Time on ice is the same as last year when he was 67 games, 75 points. That seems like the standard rate, about 90 points/year.

For one year, it's all about the difference between your floating player and Nurse. How much of an improvement is there between Nurse and floating player? Will you still be expected to be 1st in PIM, SOG, and Hits if you do this? Are you that far ahead? Will your main competitors be able to get you in those categories if you do the deal?

At first glance, my inclination is to say no, because Tkachuk seems like the best parts of Kaprizov and Nurse put together. I don't feel like you're buying low on Kaprizov here, you're buying at the price we would have expected in September.

[Belexus75]

i dont think you can just assume that normalized shooting percentage for Kaprizov adds 5 points. You can assume it adds 5 goals but it could take 2-3 assists away. Its similar argument i had other way with Kuzmenko, just cause shooting percentage was about to regress didnt necessary mean points will be much less as he would pile up more assists.

[senryu]

i dont think you can just assume that normalized shooting percentage for Kaprizov adds 5 points. You can assume it adds 5 goals but it could take 2-3 assists away. Its similar argument i had other way with Kuzmenko, just cause shooting percentage was about to regress didnt necessary mean points will be much less as he would pile up more assists.

You're absolutely right, but the more-accurate way to perform the exercise involves a play by play investigation of every shot missed by Kaprizov and tracking where the puck went, identifying who was on the ice, and then making predictions as to what might have happened differently. For the purposes of giving guidance as to the degree to which Kaprizov has been hurt by shooting percentage, I'm using a shortcut, which may have less accuracy than video review and educated guesses about what might have occurred. But I think the possible drop in accuracy is limited, such that we can still make an informed guess that Kaprizov would probably have more goals than he does now, probably about 5 of them. Among the five missed shots that "normally" would have turned into goals, perhaps 1 or more of them would have turned into an assist. I don't have the math skills to make an accurate assessment of that.

Is there an established algorithm that translates X number of missed shots usually results in Y number of assists? That sounds like an interesting project.

[LuigiC173]

unless the return is Leon Draisaitl or Connor McDavid there is no way I am moving Tkachuk in a league with SOG, HIT, PIM.

[Belexus75]

You're absolutely right, but the more-accurate way to perform the exercise involves a play by play investigation of every shot missed by Kaprizov and tracking where the puck went, identifying who was on the ice, and then making predictions as to what might have happened differently. For the purposes of giving guidance as to the degree to which Kaprizov has been hurt by shooting percentage, I'm using a shortcut, which may have less accuracy than video review and educated guesses about what might have occurred. But I think the possible drop in accuracy is limited, such that we can still make an informed guess that Kaprizov would probably have more goals than he does now, probably about 5 of them. Among the five missed shots that "normally" would have turned into goals, perhaps 1 or more of them would have turned into an assist. I don't have the math skills to make an accurate assessment of that.

Is there an established algorithm that translates X number of missed shots usually results in Y number of assists? That sounds like an interesting project.

it would ....

i dont disagree with your assessment of Kaprizov as a player, i think he is much better than he showhn and i also think he will have much better second half but i just dont agree with linear comparison of shot% to points. Never works exactly like that...

[finnys_fanatsy]

unless the return is Leon Draisaitl or Connor McDavid there is no way I am moving Tkachuk in a league with SOG, HIT, PIM.

I’m not getting into normalized nothing. This is my answer here

[Stanley]

I’m not getting into normalized nothing. This is my answer here

Same here.

Brady is exactly what we all want in these leagues. Doesn't Brady + Strome pretty much equal or better Kaprisov + Nurse for offense anyway?

[kkek]

unless the return is Leon Draisaitl or Connor McDavid there is no way I am moving Tkachuk in a league with SOG, HIT, PIM.

This. Tkachuk is too valuable.

[lucafen4]

I would not trade Brady.

He gives you Gudas hits and PIM while giving you Stamkos production.

He is the new multi-cat Ovechkin. The white-whale of multicat

[LawMan]

Thanks all.
I needed to have some sense talked into me. When I crunch the numbers Brady is 4th best skater IMO (McDavid, Drai, Matthews) but its hard to get over that he is only a 70 point player.

Brady has not been traded.

[lucafen4]

Thanks all.
I needed to have some sense talked into me. When I crunch the numbers Brady is 4th best skater IMO (McDavid, Drai, Matthews) but its hard to get over that he is only a 70 point player.

Brady has not been traded.

Didn't he have 83 points last year?

he is also 6'4" 225lbs and at 389GP.
Buckle up.

(when he was drafted - scouting reports were saying Brady had the higher ceiling of the brothers)