Would you rather have Sorokin or Swayman ROS?

[jd2665]

Working out a trade deal with a guy who has both and I’m not sure which to target.

[sweetcelly]

Sorokin, you must be jokin.

[senryu]

Why? Sorokin is splitting time now just about as often as Swayman and Swayman has performed much better. SorokinÂ’s preseason hype is the only reason itÂ’s still difficult for me because Swayman has been the better goaltender so far this year.

Goal seems to be the most frequent position where a player who was great one can completely lose it the next.

Sorokin has played 604 minutes for the Islanders. Varlamov has 358. Ullmark has more minutes played than Swayman. The premise that Sorokin and Swayman have had the same deployment is demonstrably false; Sorokin is the #1 for the Islanders and Swayman is a 1B for the Bruins.

The post uses the phrase "Sorokin's preseason hype" as if last season did not exist. Sometimes, we look at past performance to give us an indication of what a player might do in the future. Last year, Sorokin finished 2nd in the Vezina, 9th in the Hart. Swayman did not finish ahead of Sorokin in either voting. That suggests that there may be some demonstrated level of production apart from "hype."

All that being said, Swayman =has= outperformed Sorokin this season. That's worth something. Boston is better than the Islanders. Sorokin isn't playing as well as he did last year. Varlamov has outplayed Sorokin. Is Sorokin hurt or is something affecting him? Hard to say. His 5 on 5 save percentage is actually better than it was last year. But his power play save percentage is markedly lower than his career average. He's giving up PP goals twice as often as he normally does. Power play save percentage tends to stay around an established percentage; so we should expect that to positively regress. If Sorokin's power play performance had been in line with career norms, his GAA drops to 2.58 or so, which is pretty good. And if you're thinking if Swayman is having the opposite thing happening, where his power play save percentage is wildly better than his career norms and would among the best to ever happen in NHL history, well, you'd be right!

It is up to you whether you're going to go on small sample sizes where underlying numbers suggest Sorokin will get back up to his normal and Swayman will get back down to his normal. Even so, puck luck and all that might still result in Swayman being better for this season. Goalies are voodoo. Still, in the same way that I believe that Travis Sanheim isn't likely to outscore Connor McDavid, I believe that Sorokin by year's end will probably be more valuable than Swayman.

Given that Swayman has never performed as well as Sorokin did last year; Sorokin has the contract to cement him as the team's #1 goalie, and that underlying numbers suggest Sorokin will be better and Swayman will be worse, I'll put my bets on Sorokin. Could be wrong, we'll have to see. I don't believe that Swayman is going to put up the best save percentage in NHL history.

[Grapes]

^ excellent analysis by senryu and bang on. Sorokin for me this year and going forward l

[jd2665]

Sorokin has played 604 minutes for the Islanders. Varlamov has 358. Ullmark has more minutes played than Swayman. The premise that Sorokin and Swayman have had the same deployment is demonstrably false; Sorokin is the #1 for the Islanders and Swayman is a 1B for the Bruins.

The post uses the phrase "Sorokin's preseason hype" as if last season did not exist. Sometimes, we look at past performance to give us an indication of what a player might do in the future. Last year, Sorokin finished 2nd in the Vezina, 9th in the Hart. Swayman did not finish ahead of Sorokin in either voting. That suggests that there may be some demonstrated level of production apart from "hype."

All that being said, Swayman =has= outperformed Sorokin this season. That's worth something. Boston is better than the Islanders. Sorokin isn't playing as well as he did last year. Varlamov has outplayed Sorokin. Is Sorokin hurt or is something affecting him? Hard to say. His 5 on 5 save percentage is actually better than it was last year. But his power play save percentage is markedly lower than his career average. He's giving up PP goals twice as often as he normally does. Power play save percentage tends to stay around an established percentage; so we should expect that to positively regress. If Sorokin's power play performance had been in line with career norms, his GAA drops to 2.58 or so, which is pretty good. And if you're thinking if Swayman is having the opposite thing happening, where his power play save percentage is wildly better than his career norms and would among the best to ever happen in NHL history, well, you'd be right!

It is up to you whether you're going to go on small sample sizes where underlying numbers suggest Sorokin will get back up to his normal and Swayman will get back down to his normal. Even so, puck luck and all that might still result in Swayman being better for this season. Goalies are voodoo. Still, in the same way that I believe that Travis Sanheim isn't likely to outscore Connor McDavid, I believe that Sorokin by year's end will probably be more valuable than Swayman.

Given that Swayman has never performed as well as Sorokin did last year; Sorokin has the contract to cement him as the team's #1 goalie, and that underlying numbers suggest Sorokin will be better and Swayman will be worse, I'll put my bets on Sorokin. Could be wrong, we'll have to see. I don't believe that Swayman is going to put up the best save percentage in NHL history.

That all makes sense. I was legitimately asking why. This might just be an incorrect perception, but one thing that made me nervous is that I feel like goal is the position that most often has a drastic change in performance from year to year. I remember Carter Hart did a few years back, Binnington after their cup win, Gustavsson right now. ThatÂ’s why I asked though, to hear what everyone elses thoughts were on it

[Daydream Nation]

Sorokin has played 604 minutes for the Islanders. Varlamov has 358. Ullmark has more minutes played than Swayman. The premise that Sorokin and Swayman have had the same deployment is demonstrably false; Sorokin is the #1 for the Islanders and Swayman is a 1B for the Bruins.

The post uses the phrase "Sorokin's preseason hype" as if last season did not exist. Sometimes, we look at past performance to give us an indication of what a player might do in the future. Last year, Sorokin finished 2nd in the Vezina, 9th in the Hart. Swayman did not finish ahead of Sorokin in either voting. That suggests that there may be some demonstrated level of production apart from "hype."

All that being said, Swayman =has= outperformed Sorokin this season. That's worth something. Boston is better than the Islanders. Sorokin isn't playing as well as he did last year. Varlamov has outplayed Sorokin. Is Sorokin hurt or is something affecting him? Hard to say. His 5 on 5 save percentage is actually better than it was last year. But his power play save percentage is markedly lower than his career average. He's giving up PP goals twice as often as he normally does. Power play save percentage tends to stay around an established percentage; so we should expect that to positively regress. If Sorokin's power play performance had been in line with career norms, his GAA drops to 2.58 or so, which is pretty good. And if you're thinking if Swayman is having the opposite thing happening, where his power play save percentage is wildly better than his career norms and would among the best to ever happen in NHL history, well, you'd be right!

It is up to you whether you're going to go on small sample sizes where underlying numbers suggest Sorokin will get back up to his normal and Swayman will get back down to his normal. Even so, puck luck and all that might still result in Swayman being better for this season. Goalies are voodoo. Still, in the same way that I believe that Travis Sanheim isn't likely to outscore Connor McDavid, I believe that Sorokin by year's end will probably be more valuable than Swayman.

Given that Swayman has never performed as well as Sorokin did last year; Sorokin has the contract to cement him as the team's #1 goalie, and that underlying numbers suggest Sorokin will be better and Swayman will be worse, I'll put my bets on Sorokin. Could be wrong, we'll have to see. I don't believe that Swayman is going to put up the best save percentage in NHL history.

Outstanding post. If it wasn't for Ulmark, I would prefer Swayman. I think Swayman becomes Boston's #1 next season and he's a top 10 or better goalie.

Is the price the same for both?

[senryu]

That all makes sense. I was legitimately asking why. This might just be an incorrect perception, but one thing that made me nervous is that I feel like goal is the position that most often has a drastic change in performance from year to year. I remember Carter Hart did a few years back, Binnington after their cup win, Gustavsson right now. ThatÂ’s why I asked though, to hear what everyone elses thoughts were on it

You are 100% right in feeling that goalie is the position that has the most drastic change. And it is entirely possible that something is off with Sorokin, the Islanders defense, or both, this year. It has happened before and could be happening now. Your citations to past goalies who fell off cliffs are all spot on. That's the game, though. I wish I knew what would happen!