Kuzmenko... Where is the regression?

[Toews Took My Girl]

Prime candidate for coming back to earth after those lofty shooting % numbers last year.... Kuzzy with 12pts on the year already.... maybe this guy combined with linemates/deployment is actually a legit 75pt floor type of player.

[tweetdrivr]

His sh% has regressed. Last season he shot 26.8%. This season so far it’s 15%. More reasonable. His shot rate hasn’t changed and he is pacing for about 23 goals. (Vs 38 last year). He’s getting more assists. He’s pacing for 67 assists right now. His secondary assist rate is at 44%, which is a little high, but he also plays with Pettersson. His PDO is at 1071, so he’s getting lucky. But right now he’s pacing for 90 points. So I’d say your 75 pt floor is reasonable. Still a small sample size, but looking promising.

[RizzeeDizzee]

How about 90% of the time he's been on the ice so too has the NHL's leading scorer who's averaging just under two points a game? Is he doing better than I'd pegged him? Absolutely - I'll own that. But the popcorn vendor likely would have 10+ points by now under the same circumstances.

[Feenom]

Helps a ton when you play on the hottest team and with the hottest player in the league. 75 points easy if he keeps playing with EP.

[senryu]

Prime candidate for coming back to earth after those lofty shooting % numbers last year.... Kuzzy with 12pts on the year already.... maybe this guy combined with linemates/deployment is actually a legit 75pt floor type of player.

Things may change, but if we look hard, maybe squint a little bit, we can see some regression.

[Axeman33]

A few healthy scratches hasnt helped his lackluster season. What's he on pace for this season now? 12 goals?

[random-d]

[CaveatEmptorer]

The doomsaying around kuzmenko was waaaaay over the top. I think anyone paying attention saw he wasn't going to get 38 goals again and but there actually was a lot of optimism around things like his deployment- which of course you need to account for- which was the argument on the ide that regression wouldn't hot so hard. Citing deployment as the scapegoat for a missed projection is... an interesting take- might be a little copiium? You're probably looking at his floor which is a 70ish point player who might struggle to get 20 goals. If that has value in your league i sure hope you didn't drop him- that'll certainly play in my league.

I actually do believe there's upside by next year if im honest. Some players that come from the KHL need time to acclimate to the NHL before they really pop- especially playmaker who rely on skill. There is precedent....

[BloodSport]

Can I get an update? He was offered to me for Berggren and Sheary.

I don’t follow Vancouver but I’m seeing he’s being made a healthy scratch.

[CHunter]

Back on a line with Mikheyev and EP....I would keep Kuzmenko...

[Happy Hour]

Benefit of a couple more months and a trade to Calgary - what say you now ?

I'm thinking buy low here for next season but anybody have a thought on this ?

[rataylor22]

The doomsaying around kuzmenko was waaaaay over the top. I think anyone paying attention saw he wasn't going to get 38 goals again and but there actually was a lot of optimism around things like his deployment- which of course you need to account for- which was the argument on the ide that regression wouldn't hot so hard. Citing deployment as the scapegoat for a missed projection is... an interesting take- might be a little copiium? You're probably looking at his floor which is a 70ish point player who might struggle to get 20 goals. If that has value in your league i sure hope you didn't drop him- that'll certainly play in my league.

I actually do believe there's upside by next year if im honest. Some players that come from the KHL need time to acclimate to the NHL before they really pop- especially playmaker who rely on skill. There is precedent....

Saying someone's floor is 70 points, when they needed an insane shooting percentage to hit 70 points to begin with and who is currently pacing to hit 40 points is.....a drastic misunderstanding of floor projections.

Kuzmenko's ceiling is closer to 70 points than his floor.

[Bubba55]

Since this was first posted things have certainly changed a bit. Kuzmenko's NHL rookie season was a huge success, moreso than a lot of us would have thought, including me for sure. However, things pretty much did a 180 on Kuzmenko and he went from burning real bright to healthy scratches and then, to top things off, a trade right on out of Van City. So, what happened? I honestly don't know, but there are certainly some major big time red flags here with the way all of this played out. Kuzmenko was positioned to succeed by the Canucks, his deployment was as good as it gets, and he did respond. What happened this year I'm not sure, but his fall out of favour was hard and fast. IMO, Kuzmenko is not a PPG player, I didn't think that before he hit the NHL and I still don't think that, in fact, far from it. At 28 years of age, he is as good as he is going to be and I'm not afraid to state that I think his rookie season will be by far his best in the NHL. Agreed, a 70 pt Ceiling rather than a floor seems to be the case and based on this year a 40 pt floor also seems about right. I'll give Kuzmenko the benefit of the doubt and say he could hit 55 pts with the Flames next year, but I also think that is pretty optimistic. I'll finish by saying that Kuzmenko's contract runs out next year and if he is not happy and eating cake in Calgary (which seems a good bet IMO) he is a big-time good bet to bolt back to Mother Russia. Sorry, not a Kuzmenko fan.

[Feenom]

I agree, what a difference a season makes. I also think he’s headed home.

[Tiramisu]

I think he COULD have worked out but yea hes headed home. Not one but TWO teams decided he didn't play a structured enough game to even warrant deployment in the top six. I also always got the impression that as hard as Van fought to land Kuzmenko- he was still a "throw in" in that trade by the time Tocchet decided he was done with him- in fact I sort of think they had to sweeten the pot just to include him. Kuzmenko was never treated like a core piece or even the way the habs used Monahan- he had a few games on the topline and then demoted.

Is he a bad player? Heck no! Tbh im not even sure hes a natural.goal scorer but with Boeser playing hurt or scared or whatever he was doing they needed a guy to score whatever way they could and he turned himself.into a tip in amd greasy goal machine. Hes a great guy for the room- he leaves it all on the ice for the team...

He just doesn't play defense. And it looks.like he's not going to learn how. The funny thing is there are so many teams that could insulate him properly where that wouldn't be an issue- but now that the book is out on him hes done. He may get one more crack but it'll just take one bad game before hes the scape goat again. I own him but I believe his fantasy days are done- if his name was John Hynes from Peterborough he might get another crack but let's be real here.

Its a shame though- the kid has real talent....