Dostal - Long term thoughts

[pilldoc]

So I snagged him off the waiver wire last week. He currently site 5-1 with a young Ducks team who appears to have some grit.
Not sure how long Gibson is out. When he comes back does Dostal sit or with the way he is currently playing he has earned a time share with Gibson.

Does he steal the crease from Gibson this year? I no longer have NHL center ice. (family trying to save $$) so I can't watch any Anaheim games.

What is everyone thoughts ....does he have the goods to become an above average goalie in the NHL this year or next?

Appreciate you letting me pick your collective brains.

Best

[RizzeeDizzee]

To me, there's a lot to like. His Really Bad Start percentage last season was tiny, even though his GAA was sky high. And his GSAA was barely negative, plus his Quality Start percentage was quite good. And if you look at the 22 other instances of a goalie appearing in 15+ games with a GAA of 3.75+ in a season dating back to 2000-01, as occurred with Dostal last season, only three had a SV% of .890+, and none, other than Dostal, was above .900. That's skill on display. And this season he seems to have stepped up even more. I like him more than Levi or Kotchetkov, for what it's worth, and I think Anaheim is fully prepared to hand him the keys to the kingdom if he outplays Gibson.

[Belexus75]

another one at G that will most likely be in the good and bad category. So many Gs are great few months then bad then great again and i think he will be in that boat. I also think he is slowly stealing the crease.

I think if you approach this with caution and count for around 30 W and .910 percentage he maybe able to keep you happy year after year starting lets say 2 years from now. But if you expect top 5 G , you will be disappointed imo. I own him in 3 leagues and im happy with him atm but i learned over the years to really temper my expectations when it comes to Gs

[pilldoc]

To me, there's a lot to like. His Really Bad Start percentage last season was tiny, even though his GAA was sky high. And his GSAA was barely negative, plus his Quality Start percentage was quite good. And if you look at the 22 other instances of a goalie appearing in 15+ games with a GAA of 3.75+ in a season dating back to 2000-01, as occurred with Dostal last season, only three had a SV% of .890+, and none, other than Dostal, was above .900. That's skill on display. And this season he seems to have stepped up even more. I like him more than Levi or Kotchetkov, for what it's worth, and I think Anaheim is fully prepared to hand him the keys to the kingdom if he outplays Gibson.

Yeah ...that is how I was feeling ....was looking for some validation to see if I was thinking this through properly. I declined a trade offer:

His Johansson
For mine Dostal

As I stated I turned it down with the following note ....

I know Gibson is "supposed to be" the #1 goalie with the Ducks, but we all know 1) he has a history of getting hurt and 2) despite any early success he will eventually implode. With Dostal in the wing I'm sure the Ducks would love to trade Gibson but that horrendous contract makes that impossible. (after this year 3 x $6.4 millon ..yikes!)

However, Gibson now is listed with the good ol' Upper Body Injury. Dostal will get the starts and IMO if he keeps playing well will eventually make it an equal time share and possibly take over as the #1 starter ...especially if the Ducks can sucker some one in taking Gibson's contract.

Johansson is just a place holder until Vasi comes back sometime within the next 4-6 weeks. Dostal IS the future in Anaheim.

Finally looking at the stats ...there really is not that much of a difference between the two.

Both are 4-1. (I posted that before Dostal got his 5th win)

Dostal has a better quality start % despite starting 3 less games.

Dostal has a better EV SV% (.937 vs .919)

Johansson has a beter SH SV% at .925 which is a tad high IMO......


So yeah I was trying to get a pulse on what other feel about him ....

thanks

[pilldoc]

another one at G that will most likely be in the good and bad category. So many Gs are great few months then bad then great again and i think he will be in that boat. I also think he is slowly stealing the crease.

I think if you approach this with caution and count for around 30 W and .910 percentage he maybe able to keep you happy year after year starting lets say 2 years from now. But if you expect top 5 G , you will be disappointed imo. I own him in 3 leagues and im happy with him atm but i learned over the years to really temper my expectations when it comes to Gs

Yup ... At this point I not expecting the 2nd coming Roy, but I agree hoping he can get me anywhere 30-34 Wins / year will keep me happy.

Appreciate your insight ....

[stevegamer]

I prefer Dostal to Gibson, and I don't think it's very close. I'd be surprised if Gibson is starting when he returns if Dostal is playing reasonably well, unless they are trying to tank (Gibson will help with that) or they are trying to deal Gibson (I'm sure they are, but bad expensive goalies generally have no takers).

Gibson has the contract & experience/tenure. Dostal has literally everything else. Look at how bad Gibson has been - there's a reason they couldn't get him dealt, yet the Kings managed to deal Petersen. It's the contract and the health.

[Daydream Nation]

Johansson has a beter SH SV% at .925 which is a tad high IMO......


So yeah I was trying to get a pulse on what other feel about him ....

thanks

Not sure what podcast I heard this on but the goalie stat guru stated how SH SV% is a stat that fluctuates from year to year and to be skeptical of a goalie that has a high or low SH SV% since regression to the league norm is likely. 5 on 5 SV% is the stat to use for comparison. For what it's worth.....

[stevegamer]

Not sure what podcast I heard this on but the goalie stat guru stated how SH SV% is a stat that fluctuates from year to year and to be skeptical of a goalie that has a high or low SH SV% since regression to the league norm is likely. 5 on 5 SV% is the stat to use for comparison. For what it's worth.....

That's what I've heard, with one exception. There are goalies who can repeatedly suck shorthanded.

[berni67]

I have Dostal on my farm. Pretty high on him, with an Anaheim team that will look great in future. It’s time to get him if you got place on your team.

[joe jones]

agreed - the time to get him is now

[javo16]

Would you drop Skinner/Korpisalo for Dostal ?

[tweetdrivr]

Would you drop Skinner/Korpisalo for Dostal ?

I would not make that swap. As Gibson is back Dostal isn’t going to play as much as either Korp or Skinner.

[RizzeeDizzee]

Not Skinner, but Korpisalo......maybe. Korpisalo is a bad goalie, period. Hard stop. But Ottawa probably doesn't want to give up on him as yet.

[joe jones]

Would you drop Skinner/Korpisalo for Dostal ?

Depends on whether you need starts or just quality starts.

[VincentVega]

Gibson has the big contract for 4 more years. I don't see how he doesn't play significant time unless he really stinks or gets traded.