15 Fearless Forecasts for 2023-24 (vote and list yours!)

[RizzeeDizzee]

It's amazing that I've been doing these forecasts dating back to 2015, after the venerable Jeff Angus departed. I've had some bumpy roads along the way but anyone who followed these for 2022-23 saw me do quite well. Here's hoping I can seize upon that positive momentum for 2023-24.

First, my usual disclaimer. I try for these forecasts to be bolder than other predictions, while still being grounded in reality and supported by evidence, which you can see if you read the accompanying column that will run on opening day. So basically, I think all of these have logic to back them up, but I'm going in expecting to get some wrong.

Your task here is to vote for any and all you think will occur. If somehow you believe none of the 15 will happen, there is a 16th "None of the above" choice. What I'd also like to see if for all of you to add your own forecasts, as that way we can all check back at the end of the season to see how we fared.

And as usual, please list which you voted for and why. I won't list mine, because obviously I voted for them all!

Here is a list of all the forecasts, as I don't think I'll have room to fit all of the words in the poll choice spaces for some of them:

1) Andrei Kuzmenko will score at a 50 point or lower pace
2) Ilya Sorokin will become the first goalie since 2014-15 to have a double-digit shutout total
3) LA will have no skater score above a 75 point pace, but nine or more score at a 50+ point pace
4) Buffalo will make the playoffs despite no goalie who both wins 25 games and has a GAA under 3.00
5) Timo Meier and Evander Kane will both produce at a 55 point pace or lower
6) At least one of Jamie Drysdale and Scott Perunovich will score at a 55+ point pace
7) Connor Bedard will score at a pace either above 90 points or below 55 points
8) Jack Eichel will score at a 100+ point pace
9) Connor McDavid will have more games with 5+ points than with zero points
10) Rasmus Dahlin will score at a 100+ point pace
11) Sean Durzi will score at a 55+ point pace
12) William Eklund will score 35+ goals if he plays 65+ games
13) Mattias Maccelli will score at a 45 point pace or less
14) Tage Thompson will lead the NHL in goals
15) Blake Wheeler will have the highest scoring pace of any 2023 UFA who plays 60+ games

Have fun, be safe, and best of luck in your leagues!

[loppantorkel]

Voted for the Timo/Kane and the Durzi predictions only.

Forecast: N Danielson gets exactly 60p and finishes third in the Calder race, behind Fantilli and Bedard.

[ross10019]

Voted:

- LA skaters (frankly the 75 part could easily happen, it’s the 9 50+ that’s dicier)
- Buffalo goalies
- Maccelli (sophomore slump and too much competition)

My fearless forecast:

- Matheson 60+ pace and Suzuki 75+ pace

[forsbergfan]

I voted for Maccelli and Eichel. I expect a huge year from Eichel. Finally healthy, and had tremendous chemistry with Barbashev and Marchessault during the playoffs. Maccelli should drop for a number of reasons, sophomore slump, lack of solid linemates (outside of the first line which he won't be on).
I think a lot of these predictions will get awfully close, but just miss out. I expect a monster season from Dahlin, however expecting 100 point pace is pushing it. Drysdale could pace for 50, I think 55 is a bit too high just yet. Buffalo might have no starters get 25+ wins, but I think the GAA will be better than 3.00.

My fearless prediction for 2023-24: The New York Rangers do not make the playoffs. I say this with a heavy heart as I'm a Rangers fan. I don't like the coaching hire, I think dealing for Tank and Kane last year ruined the younger guys' development, and I don't buy that Laffy and Kakko will take the next step, which is basically what their season depends on. Already some injury concerns, Kreider could take a big step back. I think they made a mess of what should have been a dynasty. Jeff Gorton is awesome, teams should learn not to let him go.

[audiopile]

I dont want it to happen to Meier but I can see the Meier&Kane under 55 as the most likely. Also Maccelli under 45.

My prediction:

Hronek will have 10PPGs.

[ross10019]

Anyone voting for Dahlin 100+ is insane.

[RizzeeDizzee]

Anyone voting for Dahlin 100+ is insane.

Let's keep in mind he finished with 11 points in 21 games last season, and was above a 90 point pace before getting hurt. And I think it's also safe to say he's in that range of his career where he still should be improving. Yes, 100 is a stretch, but of all the defensemen in the league I'd say he has the most legitimate chance if he plays all 82 games. Yes, more so than Makar - I said it.

[stevegamer]

I'm wondering if there's a minimum number of games for pace here, but that's likely. Would be hilarious if LA had a guy play in 1 game and get an assist to pace for 82 to screw this up if no minimum.

I voted for:

- LA skaters thing. I think the quantity of guys scoring that much may be a bit too far, and somebody is likely breaking a 75 pace if they do. I'm assuming that there is a minimum number of games
- Buffalo goalies. 50 wins would get them in, easily. 45 likely would as well. This has a 3 way split likely, due to injury if both of UPL & Comrie aren't dealt/waived.
- Maccelli I think he's decent but Arizona added some players. He could take a step forward, but I'm guessing not.

My prediction: Rasmus Ristolainen gets 20+ points on the power play.

[niconasr]

I'm wondering if there's a minimum number of games for pace here, but that's likely. Would be hilarious if LA had a guy play in 1 game and get an assist to pace for 82 to screw this up if no minimum.

I voted for:

- LA skaters thing. I think the quantity of guys scoring that much may be a bit too far, and somebody is likely breaking a 75 pace if they do. I'm assuming that there is a minimum number of games
- Buffalo goalies. 50 wins would get them in, easily. 45 likely would as well. This has a 3 way split likely, due to injury if both of UPL & Comrie aren't dealt/waived.
- Maccelli I think he's decent but Arizona added some players. He could take a step forward, but I'm guessing not.

My prediction: Rasmus Ristolainen gets 20+ points on the power play.

Baha, I like the loophole you found there, steve!

I voted for:

Nine LA skaters will produce at 50-75 point pace, no skater above 75 : Sounds about right, Fiala being the biggest threat to produce the over.
Buffalo makes playoffs despite no goalie with 25+ wins and sub-3.00 GAA: I drafted Levi so I hope not but considering the high-octane offense and the lack of a true number 1, this can definitely make sense.
Mattias Maccelli will score at a 45 point pace or less: A mix of the superior winger depth and sophomore slump can lead to this prediction.

My prediction:

One of Montreal, Philadelphia, Chicago or San Jose, all 4 teams expected to finish at the bottom of their respective division, will make the playoffs. Highly unlikely, but could be possible. Montreal had the most man-games lost ever last year and was treading .500 until Matheson and Caufield got hurt, Philly gets a lot of help back in Couturier and Atkinson and they have the best goalie of the bunch, Chicago has Bedard and no expectations and San Jose...erm...I mean, that one is a stretch but the prediction is more fun with them in there.

[RizzeeDizzee]

I'm bumping this because my column just posted on the main site where I've looked back at each prediction, saw if it came true or not (spoiler alert - none did), and, perhaps most importantly, to identify what lessons can be learned from the outcomes. Some of these were close calls, but there's no sugarcoating that most were WAYYYYY off the mark. I guess I was due for a market correction when I nailed as many as I did in 2022-23.

[Invictus]

Niconasr prediction almost came right.

[Pengwin7]

Solid bump.
Props on revisiting things like this - very enjoyable. (some rep)

[RizzeeDizzee]

Solid bump.
Props on revisiting things like this - very enjoyable. (some rep)

Thanks P7. I never try to hide my mistakes (not since my days of being a Joe Pavelski disbeliever at least.....), especially when there is something to be learned from them not coming to fruition.

[senryu]

I voted only for Dahlin hitting 100. Which now feels like wishcasting as opposed to rational evaluation.

[RizzeeDizzee]

I voted only for Dahlin hitting 100. Which now feels like wishcasting as opposed to rational evaluation.

As I said in my column, I - and seemingly you - fell victim to recency bias, meaning that we saw something done the previous season, and by someone who unlike Dahlin is on the back end of his career, and thus felt it could become the new normal, rather than pausing to consider how long it'd been since it previously occurred. Attributing it to Dahlin is less the error in my book than having predicted it would happen again right away.