Devon Levi - Dobber Projections

[gottabesweet]

Anyone else curious why Levi is ranked Goalie 73 in Dobber rankings. They don't think he's going to play more than 8 games, I'm from Buffalo all indications are he's going to be a 1A 1B type guy playing 35-45 games with either Comrie who has the lead over his battle with UPL. They'll likely waive one of those guys. UPL got the entire game yesterday to show what he can do, the Sabres rarely give a goalie the entire preseason game, and he did ok enough to extend this camp battle.

I thought the Sabres should have added a more veteran better backup but I don't think they are rolling with three guys and I don't believe Levi is only playing 8 games and most other sites don't believe so either.

Fantasy Pro's takes a composite between every site and the high is G5 and the low is G21 overall.

I think he'll be a fine low end #3 fantasy goalie on a team with upside.

[RizzeeDizzee]

Let me ask you this - name me all the goalies who played 35-45 games in their age 22 season? I'll give you a hint, it's a short list.

[gottabesweet]

Let me ask you this - name me all the goalies who played 35-45 games in their age 22 season? I'll give you a hint, it's a short list.

Just because it's rare doesn't mean it's not going to happen. He's headed into the season as 1A/1B he's going to play. Assuming he doesn't get hurt, I'd bet a good chunk of money he's playing more than 8 games.

Even when the Sabres deployed 3 goalies when they had Craig Anderson each goalie got 33,26, and 19 games much more than the 8! (Levi played 7 last year down the stretch and has earned likely to start next Thursday vs the Rangers. That was also when they had to dust 41 year old Craig Anderson off every 10 days.

[4T2]

As Rizzee stated, very few goalies make that kind of impact at this age. The odds are that Levi gets sent down and UPL/Comrie end up manning the crease for the season.

If Levi ends up with the starting role out of camp, he could still wind up being sent down if he struggles early. And that would be the best thing for him unless he is lights out right away. How many young goalies come in and get lit up and then struggle with confidence for years? The last thing Buffalo needs is to turn him into Carter Hart

[gottabesweet]

Buffalo isn't rolling with UPL and Comrie in the crease this year. They opted not to use any cap space on anyone available for a reason to platoon, They are confident this kid is going to learn along the way.

So when he starts the opener. He only has to play 7 more games this year to reach projections!

I'd figure fantasty goalie 45 at worst and that's still 24 spots lower than anywhere else but here G73.

72 better fantasy goalies this year.

[RizzeeDizzee]

Just because it's rare doesn't mean it's not going to happen

You're not wrong. But teams look at what happened to Carter Hart and have been tentative as a result. And even before his cautionary tale it was still rare, with another concerning example being Steve Mason. I feel like you really want this to happen and it's clouding your objectivity.

[gottabesweet]

You're not wrong. But teams look at what happened to Carter Hart and have been tentative as a result. And even before his cautionary tale it was still rare, with another concerning example being Steve Mason. I feel like you really want this to happen and it's clouding your objectivity.

Do I want him to be up and be great of course. It's not clouding my judgement though, 8 games is embarrassingly low. I wouldn't have batted an eye if it was 20-30 and he was ranked G45. If the Sabres added a goalie this off-season then I would have for sure said he's the 1B and playing 15-20 games, even now if they roll with 3 goalies he'll play more than 8, likely 18-25 with 3 goalies. If they only use two and stay healthy he'll play in rare territory amount of games. They love him and they are going to roll him out there to start the year as much as they did down the stretch last year in games they needed to win.

He might not produce but by end of November he probably has 8 games baring a disaster which is what this site is projecting.

[gottabesweet]

I think Levi stays in the same NHL and plays the most games out of the Sabres goalies. I know it's uncommon but that seems to be the plan and he's looked good in preseason FWIW. So I don't think Levi is playing as little as projected in Dobber.

That said does anyone else think it's bonkers that the NHL.com fantasy rankings have Levi at 12th? Their rankings are generally not ones I put much stock into because their analysts seem to let their biases and hunches seep in, but I thought I'd bring that up while we're talking about the vast array of Levi expectations.

I agree he'll play the most as well. NHL rankings are bad, they adjust them week to week and guys go from G4 to G32 in a blink. A non-biased guess is he's a solid FANTASY G 3 for a 10-12 team league, that you can start on weeks they play 4 games etc, with upside of being a #2, but of course some downside he tanks. Rather have him on the back-end of my fantasy roster than a Varlamov or Mrazek G44-45

[Axeman33]

Who really knows what Adams and his management team are thinking right now, but a 21 year old kid with 7 career NHL games should not be expected to carry the load in the NHL, especially for a team like Buffalo who is going to challenge for the playoffs. Now is it impossible, no, but it will be interesting to see how this plays out. I wont be surprised if he isn't sent back to the AHL at some point. I also wont be surprised if a trade doesn't happen to bring in an experienced goalie to lead this team and help mentor Levi. They dont have that in the system. I think they are willing to give it a shot with him to start but I expect the rope to be short, as it should be.

[4T2]

Buffalo isn't rolling with UPL and Comrie in the crease this year. They opted not to use any cap space on anyone available for a reason to platoon, They are confident this kid is going to learn along the way.

So when he starts the opener. He only has to play 7 more games this year to reach projections!

I'd figure fantasty goalie 45 at worst and that's still 24 spots lower than anywhere else but here G73.

72 better fantasy goalies this year.

Only time is going to answer this question. You could very well be right my friend. Levi could easily end up a top 20 fantasy goalie this year if he has a hell of a rookie season.

He could also easily end up at 73 if he struggles early and winds up being sent down.

Either of those scenarios could happen, however there are for more paths that could lead to scenario 2 than scenario 1.

I don’t think he ends up that low either, chances are the result is somewhere in the middle. But I’m hedging my bets and even drafted UPL/Comrie as depth goalies in one league this year

[Locke]

Imo it's a pretty rare situation. Specifically it's rare that a young prospect goalie is in a situation where they're potentially starting for a playoff team. Most of the Carter Hart type stories are about confidence. Generally a poorer team rushes a prospect goalie, and doesn't have the defensive talent or system to insulate the goalie. This leads to relatively poor performance, and can impact confidence in the long-term. Younger goalies don't have a history of success in the league to draw from after a bunch of poor results.

Levi's situation is different for a few reasons imo. He's often talked about as being mentally steady. I think he's less likely than most young goalies to be negatively impacted by poor results. He's also not anointed as the starter. It takes the pressure off, as Buffalo's got two other guys under contract. There's a world of difference between carrying the expectations of a #1 starter and having to perform to that level with 7 games experience vs giving your team the best chance to win and earning more and more of the starts in net.

FWIW - I expect him to end up with 25-40 starts this year, and provide above-average numbers.

[hockeypoolfanatic]

If it were me I would start the season with UPL/Comrie and see if one of them can run with the starting role. Let Levi dominate in the AHL and build up confidence and if/when his services bring him up and let him be the saviour. I don't understand the rush. As mentioned above Carter Hart is a prime example of what can happen when you rush a goalie. What happens if he starts get shelled early and they have to send him down where his confidence will be ruined? Just my 2 cents.

[2014olympicgold]

Levi's issue won't be talent, it'll be the grind of the NHL. He played 34/35 NCAA games last yr, but the schedule is mostly Friday, Saturday, Sundays (random Tuesdays). I don't think it's wise to throw him into a schedule grind like the NHL at 22yrs old. He should be using the AHL as a way for his body to understand the grind.

UPL and Comrie should be enough for the team to do well. They really only need to be a 2.8-2.9GAA tandem for the team to win.

I wouldn't start Levi in the NHL, but the organization might feel outside pressure to perform well, and Levi def has the highest ceiling on the roster.

[VincentVega]

Levi is the most over-hyped goalie right now that will severely disappoint his fantasy owners expecting anything more than 20-25 starts this year. This is not the year for him and if Buffalo feels they are close to making the playoffs, they are more likely to acquire a veteran than rely on Levi down the stretch.

[Daydream Nation]

Anyone else curious why Levi is ranked Goalie 73 in Dobber rankings. They don't think he's going to play more than 8 games, I'm from Buffalo all indications are he's going to be a 1A 1B type guy playing 35-45 games with either Comrie who has the lead over his battle with UPL. They'll likely waive one of those guys. UPL got the entire game yesterday to show what he can do, the Sabres rarely give a goalie the entire preseason game, and he did ok enough to extend this camp battle.

I thought the Sabres should have added a more veteran better backup but I don't think they are rolling with three guys and I don't believe Levi is only playing 8 games and most other sites don't believe so either.

Fantasy Pro's takes a composite between every site and the high is G5 and the low is G21 overall.

I think he'll be a fine low end #3 fantasy goalie on a team with upside.

I agree with your views on Levi and definitely feel 73 is too low. Levi is a goalie I am not targeting in 1-year leagues but I'm very pleased to have picked him up in a dynasty league a couple years ago.