Re: Bedard - When to Draft
Fun wrinkles in your league... I like wrinkles.
In category leagues with positional requirements the best strategy is to determine the waiver wire value at each position and then each round draft the player available who provides the most value over replacement.
Given your rookie category, in addition to LW, RW, C, D, G, you would have a "rookie" rankings. The statistically correct play would be to grab the player with max value over replacement each round.
For example:
Let's assume your 12th pick is between: Marner, Kaprizov and Bedard.
You would compare your Marner and Kaprizov projections (lets say 90 points each) to a waiver level projection (192nd skater was 40 points) for a value over replacement player ("VORP") of 50 points
Then look at rookies. Last year, the 12th rookie skater scored 30 points (Perfetti). If you believe Bedard is a 70 point player, his VORP is 40 points, and you should take Marner or Kaprizov.
If you believe Bedard is a 90 point player (90-30) his VORP is 60 and you should take Bedard
Again the above is incredibly simplified, your league is more than points only, and you need to assign a value to each category
HINT: If you buy Dobber's guide and a membership to fantasyhockeygeek.com it will do this for you! Then you can compare the FHG value each round.
My preference would be to take a veteran skater with the 12/13 picks but if Bedard falls to the 3/4 round nab him there.
12 team H-2-H 1 year league, daily roster changes, 3 goalie start minimum/week
2xC, 2xRW, 2xLW, 4xD, 3xUtil, 2xG, 5 Bench
G, A, P, PIM, PPP, SHP, GWG, SOG, Hits, W, SV%, GAA, SVs
C: C. Keller, C. Mittelstadt, B. Nelson, R. Strome,
LW: K. Connor, B. Tkachuk, J. Gaudreau, J. Marchessault, E. Rodrigues, A. Lafreniere
RW: K. Fiala, J. Bratt, T. Jeannot V. Arvidsson
D: R. Josi, J. Trouba, E. Gustafsson,
G: L. Thompson, F. Gustavsson, V. Vanecek
NO IR