Bedard - When to Draft

[coffee]

Hockey is back (almost)! Hoping to get feedback from folks here to help me figure out when is the right time to target Bedard (if at all). Our league is a bit unique in make-up in that we have a distinct starting spot for a rookie skater. I'm going to have a pick at the bottom of our first round, so I am likely to only get him with one of the 12th or 13th pick if someone doesn't take him before that. Signature has more details on roster sizes by position. Note that we do have +/- as a category, but it's discounted.

[2014olympicgold]

Man... That's a strange one.

First you look at what you think Bedard will do statistically. I was on the 30/30 season for 60pts. But after seeing him in the preseason he might be closer to a 70pt production.

Next would be who's the next rookie. I'm looking at Cooley, Fantilli, Knies, Rossi, Stankoven, Evangelista, Carlsson, Woll, Hughes, and Levi as the other top rookies available and when they would typically be drafted.

I think you might get more benefit if you wait and draft a rookie later. Having Levi or Woll getting 40-50% of the starts might be a huge benefit since the league is almost a 50/50 split between players and goalies.

I would say I rather have, in a non-keeper, a start 1st rounder then Cooley later. I also don't know where you would expect Cooley to go...

[coffee]

Man... That's a strange one.

First you look at what you think Bedard will do statistically. I was on the 30/30 season for 60pts. But after seeing him in the preseason he might be closer to a 70pt production.

Next would be who's the next rookie. I'm looking at Cooley, Fantilli, Knies, Rossi, Stankoven, Evangelista, Carlsson, Woll, Hughes, and Levi as the other top rookies available and when they would typically be drafted.

I think you might get more benefit if you wait and draft a rookie later. Having Levi or Woll getting 40-50% of the starts might be a huge benefit since the league is almost a 50/50 split between players and goalies.

I would say I rather have, in a non-keeper, a start 1st rounder then Cooley later. I also don't know where you would expect Cooley to go...

Thanks for the response! First off, the rookie slot is only for skaters not goalies. Second, fair point on the other rookies. I normally don't target a rookie early - was just thinking Bedard might be an exception given Dobber's projections of 43 goals and 91 pts. When there's a "generational talent" available, they almost always go in round 1 even though it's not a keeper league, which I think is risky. For the rest of the rookies, it's a total crapshoot. The ones with sexy names (i.e. Cooley?) tend to go higher than their projected points would suggest, but it also usually means some under the radar types can be virtually free later in the draft, but with much less certainty. Love the feedback!

[2014olympicgold]

If you believe he's a 90pt forward, he is 100% a 1st round pick. I would think the 1st round pick for Bedard is justified if you think he's a PPG guy.

[LawMan]

Fun wrinkles in your league... I like wrinkles.
In category leagues with positional requirements the best strategy is to determine the waiver wire value at each position and then each round draft the player available who provides the most value over replacement.
Given your rookie category, in addition to LW, RW, C, D, G, you would have a "rookie" rankings. The statistically correct play would be to grab the player with max value over replacement each round.

For example:
Let's assume your 12th pick is between: Marner, Kaprizov and Bedard.
You would compare your Marner and Kaprizov projections (lets say 90 points each) to a waiver level projection (192nd skater was 40 points) for a value over replacement player ("VORP") of 50 points
Then look at rookies. Last year, the 12th rookie skater scored 30 points (Perfetti). If you believe Bedard is a 70 point player, his VORP is 40 points, and you should take Marner or Kaprizov.
If you believe Bedard is a 90 point player (90-30) his VORP is 60 and you should take Bedard

Again the above is incredibly simplified, your league is more than points only, and you need to assign a value to each category
HINT: If you buy Dobber's guide and a membership to fantasyhockeygeek.com it will do this for you! Then you can compare the FHG value each round.

My preference would be to take a veteran skater with the 12/13 picks but if Bedard falls to the 3/4 round nab him there.