Forward then D or D then F?

[everfeb]

Hey guys. Hope everyone had a great summer. 3 round draft. I have 12th pick of 13 teams then 15th then 38th. G + A are 1 pt. each. That’s it We have 19 F, 4 D (I tried going for 6 D but got shot down). And 2 Rookies (positions don’t matter.)

At 12th pick I might get a top D (any except probably Makar). At 15th, someone like Pasta, Rantanen, Pettersson should be available. Not sure what to do...grab the projected highest scoring D left in play first or grab the projected highest scoring F. Then I wait 23 picks before my 3rd one.

Any thoughts? What would you do? Take a D first then the F or just grab the highest rated F/D available. F then D? Or wdoes it even matter at this stage.

Thanks guys. Hope you all have a good season.

[metaldude26]

Not sure I understand your league. Are all players available in these three rounds?

[everfeb]

Not sure I understand your league. Are all players available in these three rounds?

Yes it's a regular 3 round draft except each team has to draft at least one DMan. When a player is drafted he is no longer available to any other team. We then fill out the rest of our roster with any any players in the NHL we want who weren't drafted. Therefore many teams could have the same non-drafted player on their roster.

[everfeb]

I guess I'm wondering if you guys have some kind of formula to determine, if, for example, a 50 point d-man would be equivalent to a 75 point forward type thing. In this example the forward would have to get 50% more points than the d-man (75/50). Or the d-man should be expected to get 66% as many points as the forward (50/70)

[Belexus75]

take best player available as draft happens...dont force yourself to draft a D or a F before you know who is available....if there is 100 p forward still on the board that maybe the right play...after Makar there is several D that will flirt with that 709-80 range. you just need to wait and see who is still there at 12 imo...if you want to quickly come here and post at that time, thats fine too.

[STONE.]

If you get Makar at 12th, then I don't worry as much about nabbing the second Dman at 15th. Someone like Pasta, EP, Rantanen is a lot stronger considering you only have 52ish D scoring in your league. You don't want to ignore them altogether, but I'd be waiting and hoping to get a high upside dman like Bouchard/Dobson/etc.

Replacement level Dmen are going to be a lot more appealing than replacement level F, so I'd be securing all the top end F first.

Of course, I'm saying this all without knowing what your team looks like. It seems crazy that with 19F, 4D, and 2Rookies that the guys you're listing are available in a 3-round redraft. Why weren't they protected?

[STONE.]

I guess I'm wondering if you guys have some kind of formula to determine, if, for example, a 50 point d-man would be equivalent to a 75 point forward type thing. In this example the forward would have to get 50% more points than the d-man (75/50). Or the d-man should be expected to get 66% as many points as the forward (50/70)

Your pool is different (now that I read the rest of your posts) I'd want to look at numbers closely, but I actually wonder if it's smart to grab two dmen now.

You know that there will be 13 Dmen drafted (per league rules). So if everyone simply took one, then you can really shift things by grabbing a pair (let's say you get two of Karlsson, Makar and Hughes). They combine for 155-160 (using Dobber's projections), and you nab the 25th best F with third pick (Dobber would put that at Miller for 85 points).

That's 245 for your top three, but then you get to ignore D for awhile.
Grabbing Fs (assuming you get the 12th best, 15th best, and 13th Dman--assuming most guys snag one) is 245ish. So very similar top three in total points.

BUT, you'd have a massive edge in D scoring compared to guys that are stuck grabbing 2 from the remaining pool and then Fs.

I'm grabbing 2 D if you can get a pair of the big dogs.

[everfeb]

If you get Makar at 12th, then I don't worry as much about nabbing the second Dman at 15th. Someone like Pasta, EP, Rantanen is a lot stronger considering you only have 52ish D scoring in your league. You don't want to ignore them altogether, but I'd be waiting and hoping to get a high upside dman like Bouchard/Dobson/etc.

Replacement level Dmen are going to be a lot more appealing than replacement level F, so I'd be securing all the top end F first.

Of course, I'm saying this all without knowing what your team looks like. It seems crazy that with 19F, 4D, and 2Rookies that the guys you're listing are available in a 3-round redraft. Why weren't they protected?

Thanks Stone. Ya, it's a one year pool so we start all over again every year. So it's not a redraft. Any player in the NHL could be drafted in the 3 round draft, 13 teams, so 39 players drafted. Rosters won't be put together until just b4 the start of the season.

[metaldude26]

Yes it's a regular 3 round draft except each team has to draft at least one DMan. When a player is drafted he is no longer available to any other team. We then fill out the rest of our roster with any any players in the NHL we want who weren't drafted. So many teams could have the same player on their roster.

Oh this is a fascinating setup. There's even more to consider since outside of the 39 players drafted everyone will have a lot of the same players and gain little advantage.

I like where your head is at with regard to the defense position. There is definitely an advantage to be gained mining this position because there is so much more scarcity and I'd expect a lot of people to go for the same undrafted defensemen cancelling each other out. That becomes even more prevalent if only a few defensemen are drafted. At forward, the pool is a lot larger so there's more room for variance and setting yourself apart.

I like the idea of going for 2 defensemen but I don't think you should be married to it either. At least 13 defensemen are coming off the board, but I'm not sure how many folks are drafting more than one, do you have a history on this league?

If everyone just goes for one defenseman or just a couple go 2D then you're getting 15 or so defensemen off the board. The defensemen who finished in the 15-20 range in scoring finished with 50-54 points. Almost no difference. In my projections defensemen 15-20 are between 51-53 points. So unless A LOT of teams go 2D almost everyone will be selecting from a ubiquitous pool of 50ish point defensemen to fill out their D slots and almost no one is gaining an advantage unless they hit it big on the right target out of that bunch who happens to pop.

Now, where you can gain a small advantage is if you are taking defensemen at the top of the D pile. In my projections the top-12:

Makar - 76
Fox - 71
Q Hughes - 69
Heiskanen - 68
Karlsson - 67
Dahlin - 66
Hamilton - 65
Bouchard - 64
Josi - 62
Carlson - 58
Burns - 55
Theodore - 54

So if you are picking two out of the top of the pile you are gaining a real advantage over the group. About 10-20 points with the Makar pick (because other teams will be selecting defense with points in the 69-54 range as their 1D) and then about 20 points with the Fox pick (because other teams will be sharing 50-53 -point types as their 2D - assuming they don't also stack at this position).

HOWEVER. I'd expect to see any and all advantage of taking 2D early erased because you then aren't picking until 38. Even if your 2D strategy forces a bit more of a run on defense, I'd still expect to see the top-22 forwards come off the board, which leaves you in the Tage Thompson (80), Willy Nylander (80), Sebastian Aho (80), range of really good, potentially lethal but not overwhelming forwards. And basically everyone else has a 140 (McDavid) to 92 (Pastrnak) forward as their 1F, and another 85-90 -point forward as their 2F (while you'll be picking from the pile of 75-point forwards that everyone else will round out their forwards with as your 2F.

So the math has you beating up on the people drafting towards the latter parts of the 1st round but falling behind the folks taking the 100+ pointers towards the top of the 1st round.

I think you can justify going for a top D early if you're getting a Makar or a Fox who are slam dunks. But I wouldn't push it and go for 2D early. You need a strong F pick to keep up with everyone else.

Then because you are drafting with the 2nd last pick, if there's an outlier 60-point D somehow still on the board then you can pluck him, but otherwise you go for the best F and take one more out of the pool.

The only way going for multiple D makes sense is if everyone sees some kind of scarcity and jumps on it. But even then that would leave a lot of huge forwards left for you to zag.

[everfeb]

Wow. Thanks Steve. You now know more about my league than I do It really is an interesting set up...I have a hard time describing it...pool consists primarily of a bunch of us old dudes and it keeps on evolving over the 35 years I've been involved. I'll reply to your great post in some detail tomorrow. I'll say now, I was thinking of grabbing the 2 highest scoring D I could in the Draft so glad you posted when you did. Thanks.

[metaldude26]

I gotta say, I think it's pretty ridiculous the draft setup here. Not only does the #1 pick get McDavid, but they also get an extra round of a high pick in the 3rd round. Picking towards the back half you are kind of screwed.

[Invictus]

Yup odd amount of rounds gives good advantage to first pick, especially when there's only 3 round.

[RizzeeDizzee]

Go in prepared to draft D then D, but don't be wedded to it if the cream of the crop is already gone.

[everfeb]

I gotta say, I think it's pretty ridiculous the draft setup here. Not only does the #1 pick get McDavid, but they also get an extra round of a high pick in the 3rd round. Picking towards the back half you are kind of screwed.

Ya, it is a pretty ridiculous set up. But done intentionally to give the perennial also rans a shot at winning. Or at least finishing in the $$$. We may have gone overboard, enabling them. Before the Draft was instituted we had 3 teams always in the hunt, 6-7 teams in the $$ every now and then and 3-4 perennial very sad sack teams.This will be our 3rd draft. Believe it or not, the guy who had 1st pick in the 1st draft ended up last again. And yes, he had McD and a top Defenceman. Ya, WOW. Last Year he did win so will pick last this year. The team with 1st pick this year is historically bad. Will be interesting to see if 1st pick motivates him.

All in all, this draft set up SHOULD strengthen the lower teams improving their chances of finishing in the $$. Should also increase pool interest and help retain teams. Does hurt the perennial top teams..but that makes us try harder. E.G. I had 2nd last pick the last 2 years and finished 2nd both years. Thank you Dobber community and "Dobber Draft List"

[metaldude26]

Well if it's linked to last year's standings then at least it makes some sense.