2023/2024 Rocky Horror Roto Show - Spooky Season #13

[PenguinHunter]

The 13^th Season!

Draft Selection Process
With the spot I had, I knew I wasn’t getting a top Tier option, so I decided to pick slot #7. Picking this slot, I was hoping to get a 2^nd Tier player and then be in on the early goalies. Note to self… do not make a strategy for the RHRS….

Round 1 Mikko Rantanen I selected the 7^th pick hoping to get one of Rantanen, Matthews or B. Tkachuk. Rantanen was the last one available of this trio. I am big on Rantanen this year. With Compher leaving Colorado, I expect Rantanen (who percentage wise was the best Colorado Face-off man last season) to take an increased number of faceoff.

Round 2 Kirill Karpizov – I was planning on taking a goalie in the second round, but with Shesterkin and Oettinger gone, I changed plans. I promised myself that I wouldn’t always take the sexy scoring option this year. But to make myself feel better about it later, I added a second 100 point player. Now that I have done this, I reaffirm that I will take more peripherals than points going forward.

Round 3 Mika Zibanejad – I feel like we aren’t that many years removed from Zib being a first round talent in this league. The only category he doesn’t contribute in is PIMs. And with Laviolette as a coach, I expect the scoring to increase in New York this season. Panarin and Zib both break 100 points this year!

Round 4 Nico Hischier – Wanting to make sure I protect the early investment in Rantanen and his faceoff wins, I needed a big Faceoff win guy. I debated Trochek and Hischier here. I decided to go with Hishier and the points upside and shot totals. Its very hard for me to not pick the points guy when debating two players.

Round 5 Ryan Nugent Hopkins – Sure, he might not break 100 points again, and he might not get 50 PPP. But I don’t expect him to regress to a level that is lower than this value. And more FOW from the win. I was very happy with this pick.

Through 5 - 2C, 2LW, 1RW - I wanted to spend up on goalies this year, but never had the right value at my draft slot. I had intended to wait longer on D. I did not expect to have only forwards at this point in the draft.

Round 6 Kyle Connor – this was the first round that I started to make an actual Yahoo queue. I had Giroux and Dubois on it, cause I wanted one more top level player that could get me some FOW from the wing. Dubois was my top target because of the additional hits he adds… These two players go the two immediate picks before mine… so somewhat panic and sort by points and start looking… Kyle Connor. Not happy with having 3LW on my roster through 6 rounds… and this comes back to bite me later with all the LW I had to pass over later in the draft because of positional needs. I tell myself that I need to make up for this pick by making sure I get some peripherals with the next couple picks.

Round 7 Adrian Kempe – Right wing… value was hard to come by this hole draft. I am glad I got Rantanen in round 1, cause it seemed like RW was behind the value curve the rest of the draft…. I finally get some solid hit totals and some PIMs. I usually don’t make this type of pick… so it didn’t feel great at the time.

Round 8 Jacob Trouba – My first defenseman. I had been watching and contemplating Nurse for a couple picks, but couldn’t pull the trigger. Nurse went at the end of Round 7. So I felt it was an appropriate time for Trouba. I finally did it… I picked a player projected for less than 40 points in the first 10 round of the RHRS… the times are changing fellas!! After making this pick… I start to feel like I can do this and commit to taking more hits and blocks and sacrificing points.

Round 9 Sergei Bobrovsky – The hardest part for me in the RHRS is finding goalies and getting enough starts. I never want to pay up for them… and always guess in the back half of the draft trying to piece something together. Let’s try Bobrovsky, and hope to sneak in Knight later and get the goalie starts from the Stanley Cup Finalists… should have known I wouldn’t get Knight!

Round 10 Joonas Korpisalo – I need to follow up the Bobrovsky pick with another goalie. Usually I get one goalie then wait too long to get another one… So I take the next best option on my list… Korpisalo. Not sold on him… but he should be on a good team and can hopefully get some wins.

After 10 – 2C. 3LW, 2RW, 1D, 2G - I feel a lot better about my composition after 10 rounds then I did at round 5. I like that I have more cross category coverage than I usually have at this point.

Round 11 Devon Toews – I just went four straight rounds without focusing on scoring… I add Toews here to get some scoring on the D end and looking at my roster, I feel like I have a lot of players that should produce strong plus minus results. If I add some more positive plus minus players, I can take a shot on a later round player on a weaker team like Philly or Anaheim…

Round 12 Mackenzie Weegar – The Trouba pick helped me to feel confident in making this pick. A lot more hits and blocks. And I feel like the SOG and points could increase with a new bench boss in Calgary. I shouldn’t be in last place in hits and blocks this year!

Round 13 Ryan Hartman - I was looking for more FOW from the wing… and I found some PIMs to go along with it. Nothing sexy here… but going sexy every pick up to round 20 doesn’t work! Penguin Hunter’s team is going to be a lot more Gritty this year!

Round 14 Ville Husso – After picking Hartman, I do my search to see who is all out there… man lots of names I want for my next pick… Bertuzzi, Barbashev, Rakell, lots of great value still out there… or not!! With my queue evaporating, I decide to check in on the goalies… Ville Husso… another starting goalie…on a team that should be better than last year… let’s do it, so I can have three starting goalies an not be chasing games played all year. Shortly after this pick, Knight goes. It bugs me a little to not get Bobrovsky protection… but I was able to get a starting goalie in the same round…. So I will focus on Ottawa’s backup now instead…

Round 15 David Perron – dual eligible, hits, PIMS, powerplay points, I like the mix of coverage Perron offers and the position flexibility he provides.

Through 15 – 2C, 3LW, 4RW, 3D, 3G – I have caught up on D and Goalies and need to focus on my investment in faceoff wins from my wingers… I need to find some centres than win some faceoffs… lets see what we can find.

Round 16 – Jonas Johansson - Still a little beat up that I didn’t get Knight to protect my investment in Bob… and see that other backups like Francouz, Woll, and Fleury are starting to be drafted, I decide to invest in a backup that is going to get 2 months action as being a starter on a team that knows how to win. I always find it hard to hit the goalie games played… this year I am invested in doing that… and this pick should help me get off to a good start.

Round 17 Mikael Backlund – Like I mentioned, I need to protect my investment in winger FOW… so I select freshly announced Captain of the Flames. I doubt he gets his points totals from last year… but the new PH is okay with sacrificing points to get some of the other stats

Round 18 Trevor Zegras - as mentioned earlier, I was building up plus minus to be able to take a shot on some late round players on bad teams… Points upside, with PIMs. Wish he could win more faceoffs or get slotted on the wing beside McTavish… we will see what happens. At this point I feel the need to compensate for his lack of FOWs… Shortly after this pick… I see my hidden gem get drafted. Owen Tippet… I wanted him so bad in this league. He shoots a tonne and hits a lot… I love this pick and am super jealous! I will be sending over trade offers for sure!!

Round 19 JT Compher – As mentioned above, Colorado doesn’t have many good Faceoff guys and Compher is going to a team that has Larking and Copp… so he might not get as many FOW… but if he can get a decent amount and Zegras can score lots of points… this combo might make these two picks worth while for me. I missed out on Ottawa backup… can I get the Detroit backup later?

Round 20 Reilly Smith – He never played with a centre as talented as Crosby or Malkin and scored 56 points… worth a shot to take on a dual eligible winger that might benefit from playing with a super talented centre. I had been eying up Sandin and Pulock for a while… should have taken one of them last round.

Round 21 Dmitry Orlov - A good defenseman on a great team, (+/-, hits)
Round 22 Alexander Romanov – 198 hits and 129 blocks last year, with 100 shots.
Round 23 Jake McCabe – more hits and blocks from my #6 D, add some PIMS in too.
Round 24 Jordan Staal – FOW to make up for Zegras and get me some hits when in lineup
Round 25 James Reimer - I did it, I got one of my backups. And he is on a much better team this year!

C – Zibanejad, Hischier, Zegras, Backlund, J. Staal
LW – Karpizov, RNH, Connor, Perron (RW)
RW – Rantanen, Kempe, Hartman, R. Smith, Compher
D – Trouba, Toews, Weegar, Orlov, Romanov, McCabe
G – Bobrovsky, Korpisalo, Husso, J. Johansson, Reimer

[Eskimo Brother]

Figured out the team name: ABennDunned.

Going with the movie Abandoned (2022), and working in two players of mine. Hoping to please the hockey under-lords with keeping all of the customs for a good team name in this league.

[Chili con Carne]

I did not do a lot of player prep outside of trying to map out the first 6 or so rounds, however, did have a general strategy in mind to help guide my draft – try to get some good forwards who take FOW from the wing early, get a decent C core to make sure the FOW from the wing aren’t wasted, and draft goalies when I start to panic/see value. Usually, I fade D but over the last two years have found it easier to find decent wingers late or even off the wire whereas there are slim pickings at the bottom of the pile for D (I drafted Suter last year I was so desperate). I went into this draft wanting at least two PP1 D-men on my team.

I had the 11th pick, which makes it hard to pinpoint your first-round selection as you are at the mercy of the rest of the managers to a degree, but I had some idea of who I might get. I chose the 11th slot (12th slot was already taken) as I found that this year there are a lot of really strong options in the first round and a half, and if I couldn’t pick 1st or 2nd (both taken) then I wanted to be near the other turn.

Overall, I mapped out my ideal (yet hopefully somewhat realistic) first 6 rounds as follows:

1. Elite forward – was hoping for Jack Hughes for the upside in points and FOW (although limited) from the wing.
2. Elite forward – was hoping for Tim Stutzle as his upside is great, FOW from the wing and brings stats across the board.
3. Goalie or C with a large number of FOW – was thinking Georgiev for G or maybe someone like Barkov at C.
4. Goalie or C – whichever position I don’t get in third round.
5. D-man (need some PP1 from the blue line this year) if there was someone I liked.
6. Goalie – thinking Vanecek. I don’t usually take two goalies this early but thought this would be a great 1-2 punch if I could pull it off (I did not pull it off).

Other than that, I had written down to take Sam Bennett no later than the 12th round.

How it actually went:

1 (11) – J. Hughes (C, LW). I am very happy. Soft as oatmeal so will have to look for HITs where I can.

2 (14) – Tim Stutzle (C, LW). I am still very happy. Helps average out my HITs over the first two rounds a bit.

3 (35) – EP40 (C). Georgiev is gone which gives me acid reflux but very, very happy to see EP40 still available. Hopefully his FOW keep improving, but if not, then my first two picks help make up the difference. I am thinking I still need to get at least one C with great FOW to really take control of this stat (I make a mental note re E. Lindholm).

4 (38). Vanecek (G). Two rounds earlier than I had hoped for, but the first pick of this round was Samsonov and given that I do not pick again until pick 59 I fear a goalie run and being completely on the outside looking in. He is the 8th goalie off the board so I can live with this pick. Mental note to draft Schmid. Also thinking I might be able to draft Jarry (I did not, he went before my next pick).

5 (59). E. Lindholm (C). I see Calgary bouncing back a bit and both Lindholm and Huberdeau improving over last year. I am happy to have a second C. Still some decent D on the board so decided to lock down more FOW. Scratch off one mental note.

6 (62). J. Morrisey (D). Happy with this – one round later than planned for a D-man in my overall plan but very happy to have him. I see some regression from last year, but he is PP1 and brings stats across the board. Would like to see hit HITs go up a bit from last year though. I should note I was severely contemplating Aho or Eichel here (I just can’t help myself when it comes to C) but they both went between my picks, so the decision was made for me.
So, after six rounds I am not too far off from my ideal draft (if my team stinks then it is my ranking that is the issue at this point!). There were a number of goalies gone, including all starters that I really liked so I started thinking the best route would be to lock up the NJ net and focus on 1b or good back-up goalies (or back-up goalies on good teams) to round things out.

7 (83). J. Swayman (G). Hopefully a time share or close to it in Boston. I am not super high on the Bruins this year, but they can still be stingy in their own zone. This may be a reach, but I am anxious about goalies, and my blood pressure starts to go down a bit.

8 (86). N. Dobson (D). Consistent with my overall draft strategy I wanted a second PP1 D-man and I like Dobson. Happy with this pick.

9 (107). A. Schmid (G). Might be a bit early but I didn’t think I would be able to focus on the rest of the draft until I had him locked down. Big exhale. Another mental note scratched off.

10 (110). M. Scheifele (C). Holy crap – I seem to draft him every G*D D@#M year somehow. I don’t think his head, or his heart, is really in it anymore but if he can hit 70 points then this is a big victory. I am really liking my FOW as a whole. I decide I will need to draft an extra/ fifth C at some point though in case the bottom falls out on Scheifele.

11 (131). Sam Bennett (C) – I paid heed to my draft plan and decided to pull the trigger. Helps with FOW and banger stats without killing me elsewhere. Very pleased. I now have a decent C core to go with some FOW from the wing.

12 (134). A. Raanta (G). Not many back-ups I like so decided not to risk losing him, as there is a long stretch until my next pick. My goalies are looking okay, although injury is a risk with Raanta for sure.

13 (155). R. Rakell (RW). I realize I have no RW and seem to be one of the few people using Yahoo who did not know there is a RW shortage. Crap. He shoots and hits and should get PP2 which will have to be my approach to RW moving forward.

14 (158). M. Domi (C, LW). This I feel is my first real gaffe in my opinion (I’ve had some reaches but this one was just off). It’s not that I don’t like Domi, he brings FOW from the wing and PIM (I always struggle with PIM) and could come out with a ton of energy playing for his old man’s team, but I completely missed the fact that Bertuzzi was still on the board. Given that I was looking at the Leafs, you’d think I would have checked. This may come back to haunt me as I could have had Bertuzzi and likely drafted Domi next round (or later) no problem.

15 (179). V. Arvidsson (LW, RW). Another RW who shoots and should get PP2. At this point in the draft, I am okay with this. Dual eligibility is always nice as well.

16 (182). P. Francouz (G). I have P. Kane all queued up, but he goes right before my pick. I panic a little and decide to take a shot at Francouz coming back healthy at some point soon and ready to play. If so, this rounds out my G.

17 (203). B. Rust (RW). He shoots, he hits.

18 (206). F. Hronek (D). It’s down to PP2 D or guys with elite stats in a category or two. I am okay with this pick as my third D.

19 (227). L. Schenn (D). I am very happy with this pick and think it will be a real difference maker for my team (offsets a couple of softer guys). I wished I had him last year.

20 (230). R. Pulock (D). Trying to round out my D-corps. Meh.

21 (251). D. Strome (C). Some potential upside here and very happy to get him as a dart late in the draft. If he pans out it gives me some options for a trade as I will have five great to serviceable C.

Rest of my draft include Severson (D) (curious to see him on PP1 in the Dobber guide – not sure this happens unless there is an injury but hopefully PP2), Bjorkstrand (RW) (meh at best), Haula (LW) (takes FOW so might be useful, will likely keep him on my bench for a bit to see how things shake out), and finally Zadorov (D) (was eyeing Graves but he went before me in the final round).

Final team:

C: EP40, E. Lindholm, M. Scheifele, S. Bennett, D. Strome
LW: J. Hughes (C), Stutzle (C), Domi (C), Haula
RW: Rakell, Arvidsson, Rust, Bjorkstrand
D: Morrisey, Dobson, Hronek, L. Schenn, Pulock, Severson, Zadorov
G: Vanecek, Schmid, Swayman, Raanta
IR+: Francouz

I honestly have no idea how I will do. I feel like I drafted well (at least in the top half) but will need to fill 2-4 gaps on the wings and potentially 1-2 gaps on D. Overall, I think my fortunes rest with the New Jersey goalies. I will give myself a B+.

[temek]

Projected standings based on my projections

Rank	Team	Draft pos	GP	G	A	PTS	+/-	PIM	SOG	PPP	Hit	Blk	FOW		GP	W	GAA	SV	Sv%		Standings		G	A	PTS	+/-	PIM	SOG	PPP	Hit	Blk	FOW		W	GAA	SV	Sv%
1	Island of Dr. Pageau	6	1357	445	705	1149	113	724	3638	354	1916	1202	3755		164	86	2.63	4650	0.915		131		11	9	11	9	7	10	10	10	8	8		9	8	10	11
2	The Kings in Yellow	2	1421	398	691	1089	68	644	3522	352	1865	1183	4604		164	85	2.68	4611	0.913		101		7	7	7	7	3	5	8	7	7	12		7	7	8	9
3	Pet Semyontary	3	1364	376	714	1090	-59	921	3711	352	1899	1244	3892		164	74	2.98	4629	0.904		97		2	10	8	1	12	11	9	9	11	9		3	2	9	1
4	Maaaaaa-chete	4	1398	385	717	1102	-27	664	3547	337	1756	1155	2607		164	96	2.49	4374	0.915		97		5	11	10	3	4	7	7	6	5	3		11	11	4	10
5	Scary Team Name (PH)	7	1423	401	644	1045	161	804	3551	297	1702	1285	3947		164	81	2.93	4587	0.905		93		8	3	4	12	10	8	2	5	12	10		6	4	7	2
6	ABennDunned (EB)	9	1391	402	674	1076	122	721	3540	319	1523	1151	4088		164	76	3.02	4738	0.905		87		9	6	5	10	6	6	6	4	4	11		4	1	12	3
7	Knightstalker (AW)	5	1380	426	669	1095	127	671	3585	316	1189	1017	3167		164	80	2.82	4736	0.911		86		10	4	9	11	5	9	5	1	1	4		5	5	11	6
8	Natural Born Quiller	8	1422	353	669	1023	44	841	3228	307	1875	1215	3441		103	64	2.25	2809	0.924		82		1	5	2	6	11	1	4	8	10	6		2	12	2	12
9	Hotel Guentzelvania	10	1353	378	704	1082	33	763	3347	356	1471	1075	2213		164	95	2.62	4476	0.913		82		3	8	6	5	8	2	11	3	2	1		10	9	6	8
10	Jason X(hekaj) (YL)	12	1340	389	639	1028	76	798	3378	305	2052	1167	3228		164	85	2.78	4430	0.907		81		6	2	3	8	9	3	3	12	6	5		8	6	5	5
11	Dear McDavid	1	1384	448	742	1190	-48	588	3922	392	1267	1088	2308		89	45	2.95	2514	0.906		79		12	12	12	2	1	12	12	2	3	2		1	3	1	4
12	Rust	11	1388	382	600	982	11	639	3431	272	1936	1206	3583		164	99	2.50	4246	0.912		76		4	1	1	4	2	4	1	11	9	7		12	10	3	7

These also include all FA transactions up to Mrazek addition. Obviously my team is at the top, but every other team is within 25 points of each other which isn't that much of a difference. One big season from a late draft pick or goalie and some good FA adds and that's probably already good enough to gain 15-20 pts so the the parity looks fairly good. Looks like Shoeless went Zero-peripherals on top of ZeroG, but at least you can get decent players for those cats from the FA.

[temek]

Standings projections based on DL(The Athletic)

Rank	Team	Draft pos	GP	G	A	PTS	+/-	PIM	SOG	PPP	Hit	Blk	FOW		GP	W	GAA	SV	Sv%		Standings		G	A	PTS	+/-	PIM	SOG	PPP	Hit	Blk	FOW		W	GAA	SV	Sv%
2	The Kings in Yellow	2	1442	425	708	1133	45	647	3626	360	1842	1260	4408		154	75	2.70	4358	0.913		116		9	10	10	8	3	7	11	10	9	12		3	10	3	11
1	Island of Dr. Pageau	6	1386	430	695	1125	56	652	3623	333	1828	1222	3292		164	82	2.76	4726	0.912		114		10	8	8	10	4	6	9	9	7	6		7	8	12	10
7	Knightstalker (AW)	5	1425	444	694	1138	58	670	3701	320	1312	1052	3092		164	79	2.76	4641	0.911		101		11	7	11	11	7	10	6	2	1	4		6	9	9	7
3	Pet Semyontary	3	1367	376	700	1076	0	797	3701	328	1859	1242	3913		164	77	2.92	4675	0.907		100		3	9	6	2	12	11	8	11	8	9		4	3	10	4
4	Maaaaaa-chete	4	1387	395	731	1126	8	586	3695	349	1538	1220	2394		164	85	2.80	4714	0.911		96		6	11	9	3	1	9	10	3	6	3		9	7	11	8
6	ABennDunned (EB)	9	1396	400	677	1077	68	683	3654	312	1562	1212	4188		164	79	2.82	4603	0.909		93		7	5	7	12	8	8	4	4	5	11		5	5	6	6
5	Scary Team Name (PH)	7	1430	411	659	1069	54	728	3616	299	1789	1329	4077		164	85	2.94	4611	0.905		90		8	2	5	9	10	5	2	7	12	10		8	2	8	2
8	Natural Born Quiller	8	1429	362	674	1035	35	760	3376	312	1796	1294	3448		100	60	2.51	2836	0.919		84		1	4	2	6	11	2	5	8	10	7		2	12	2	12
9	Hotel Guentzelvania	10	1353	386	681	1067	28	710	3362	327	1670	1179	2293		164	95	2.67	4537	0.912		83		5	6	4	4	9	1	7	5	3	2		12	11	5	9
10	Jason X(hekaj) (YL)	12	1367	378	663	1041	40	653	3397	301	1880	1295	3229		164	88	2.84	4608	0.908		82		4	3	3	7	5	3	3	12	11	5		10	4	7	5
11	Dear McDavid	1	1394	445	750	1195	-13	600	3921	365	1300	1145	2062		86	41	2.99	2427	0.904		71		12	12	12	1	2	12	12	1	2	1		1	1	1	1
12	Rust	11	1427	374	605	980	31	661	3433	260	1768	1179	3645		164	93	2.81	4494	0.907		62		2	1	1	5	6	4	1	6	4	8		11	6	4	3

Teams are more condensed here with my team pretty obviously the biggest loser, but the order of the teams didn't really change much. My team as the biggest loser (-17 pts) as expected with Rust (-14 pts) also losing ground. Biggest gainers were The Kings in Yellow (+15 pts) and Knightstalker (AW) (+15 pts) with other teams staying roughly the same.

[Chili con Carne]

Uh oh!

[Eskimo Brother]

Thanks for the projections!
Curious how well these have held up in years past (or if you have tried to track or note successes/failures there)?

Should be viable to move up from the middle of the pack with a couple of moves. Also liking my spot there considering it includes some sad goalie stats, and a higher likelihood for variance there propelling me up. Hoping for no sophomore slump from me this year.

[temek]

Thanks for the projections!
Curious how well these have held up in years past (or if you have tried to track or note successes/failures there)?

Should be viable to move up from the middle of the pack with a couple of moves. Also liking my spot there considering it includes some sad goalie stats, and a higher likelihood for variance there propelling me up. Hoping for no sophomore slump from me this year.

I do compare my player projections to actual results every season both category-by-category and overall value and also sometimes compare my projections to other projections like DL or Dobber. I don't think I have done anything about the league projections for quite some time, but I could find some pretty old stuff from season 2014-2015 of RHRS https://forums.dobbersports.com/show...60#post1456760. There might be some more posts like that if you go through my old posts. On that season skater projections were at least useful, but goalie projections were close to worthless. And in general there's just so much volatility in goalies that I wouldn't put that much stock into them, but I'd still say they are better than nothing. If you don't have enough projected starts for 164 GP that is likely an issue you want to at least pay attention to. Skater projections are lot more reliable and especially high volume cats like FOW, HIT, BLK, SOG are fairly reliable, but of course there's variance there as well especially if you make moves like dump 2-3 scoring-oriented D and add 3 HIT/BLK/PIM specialist instead or pickup some low-scoring winger just for FOW boost. Add WW additions, injuries and trades with the usual variance and it gets pretty messy as far as projections go.

[Eskimo Brother]

Yeah that's all fair. Fun to see regardless, and we do appreciate and enjoy the work you put into all of this. Better than Yahoo's draft grades and projections.

[temek]

Here's a spreadsheet RHRS season 22-23 Draft only comparison where I was doing a comparison between my projections and results for season 22-23 of RHRS that might give a better idea about the reliability of my projections. It's based only on players who were drafted to eliminate as much of the variability from injuries, trades and WW pickups as I could so this would be pretty close to a Best Ball type format except I am filling out missing GP with replacement level production for skaters. Overall the best projected categories were HIT, PIM and FOW and the worst SV%, +/- and G. Skater projections were fairly good except for my team which completely collapsed compared to projected results so seems like I made lot of bad skater picks in the last draft. Goalie projections were surprisingly good this time around though. Multiple teams jumped around up to ~+-20 pts range relatively to my projections and if you add more for WW pickups/etc, teams can definitely jump around in +-30 pts range from projections.

[duntroon68]

Overall the best projected categories were HIT, PIM and FOW and the worst SV%, +/- and G.

Given my combined projected 4 points from those last three categories, this is good news.

[The Comish]

Sweet, middle of the pack projected finish! Yay, that's a win for the ol' Comish, lol!

[duntroon68]

Pet Semyontary

My uncool confession, I started playing fantasy hockey in 2013 and found this website sometime in the first year. I know that I started reading the RHRS draft thread early on because I remember in 2014 I joined a Razzball Commenter league and thought, “Hey there’s that LOTR guy from RHRS.” And then in 2015, I spotted a league with good settings, drafting at a very convenient time and was startled to find “the best fantasy hockey manager ever” (Pengwin7) Temek already on board. Reading this thread is my favourite part of this forum.

I was offered the third choice of draft spot and took third. I regretted choosing it sometimes as I changed my mind about my strategy several times but in the end I was happy with it as, presuming McDavid and Draisaitl would go 1 and 2, I could choose which strategy I wanted to go with after that. I settled upon Brady Tkachuk as my pick, with a pivot to Draisaitl if LOTR did something unexpected. Most of the time I would go with points, PPP and shots here. I did not because in a league like this you are not sneaking the multi cat guys by and as a result, the pure points guys will slip. In general, here and in the Dobber Expert league, managers are all jumping ADP to get certain guys and you will get players falling. So, I wanted to fill my peripherals with players who also get points and have the ability to take some of the softer pure points guys later. I am not sure this worked.

My other thought was to punt something, which I have never done. You can really only punt in a strong league because no one runs away with everything. I have played in leagues where some other guy averages over 10 points per category in a 12 team league and you have to do better than that. Looking at last year in RHRS, the top teams all had poor categories. The other thing when punting is that you really have to gain an advantage from doing so. Players have to fall because of that one weak category. So, I went in ready to kick +/- all the way into touch if the opportunity presented itself. It really didn’t and I managed to wind up with a dismal outlook in +/- without as much advantage as I wished.

Years ago, I coached a bunch of house league softball players on a new rep team. I remember telling them that while we are here making our plans the other teams are out there making theirs. Things are not going to go our way all of the time and we have to be prepared to deal with that both mentally and tactically. I went into the draft hoping to get some of my players and trying not to have unrealistic expectations of who might fall to me. ADP would mean nothing and players were going to be sniped.

So, the plan was to get my D and peripheral heavy F early. Blocks from my D. FW from my C. 300+ shots and hits from my W. A couple of FW wingers. Try to pick up a couple of P heavy F late to balance that out. Try for late C as much as possible. Get one decent G to shore up ratios and win percentage.

1. 3 Brady Tkachuk. There were gasps. I am betting some that he breaks out on offense all of the way but I think he’s a reasonable pick here. One note, most of the first round C are not superior FW guys and you cannot make up that category elsewhere.

2.22 Roman Josi. I had a list of six or seven hopefuls for the 2nd and 3rd round. Josi was one. He blocks and shoots a ton. The only players I might have liked more were Dahlin and Miller and I wasn’t really expecting them to be here.

3.27 Andrei Svechnikov. This might be too high but most rankings had him around here in these cats. He fills in cats much like Tkachuk.

4.46 Dylan Larkin. There were a number of C that had similar, and good, projections. Most went before Larkin. I wanted to go into the late rounds not needing four C.

5.51 Charlie McAvoy. Low in shots but good in most other cats. He was not really a target for me this year and I now have him three times in six redrafts. At this point I am trying to get PP1 D who will block shots.

6.70 Kris Letang. Temek snagged him in Dobber Expert and I wanted him in this league.

7.75 Frederik Andersen. He was my target because I figure he will win a large percentage of his games and contribute a low GAA. He will hurt in saves but the later G will hopefully balance that out. I figured ahead of time that this was when I was going to have to grab my early G and I got the one I wanted. I wrote this in stone for myself as I will try to push the G back.

8.94 Boone Jenner. I wanted a FW W. Jenner was always a target around here. I have heard many speculate that he could be stronger in points this year, presuming centering Laine and Gaudreau with PPP. The even strength line does not seem to be working out but PP1 still seems on. He just fills so many cats. I was willing to take him early because someone else always seems to take him early. I need some strong winger FW. He was 61st in last year’s Yahoo season average rankings.

9.99 Travis Konecny. Starts a run of three wingers that I hope can get 70+ points and fill in assorted peripherals.

10.118 Drake Batherson. Same as Konecny.

11.123 Filip Forsberg. I almost drafted someone else and then realized that Forsberg was still here. This entire draft season, I have not had good organization during the draft. I have missed players I would have taken and I have made choices that I didn’t love when under sudden pressure. There are reasons but I have not been able to create good cheat sheets.

12.142 Sean Durzi. I use three or four projections to create my lists, all curated by my own opinion, of course. One suggested Durzi was good value here and he fills the cats I wanted my D to fill. I am not 100% certain about this choice.

13.147 Thomas Chabot. I own a lot of Chychrun but I am by no means sold that Chabot will not be the main guy to own in Ottawa. I like him here just fine.

14.166 Elvis Merzlikins. My usual strategy in a roto limited games played league is to fill in my bench with tandem and back up G from strong teams and just jigsaw puzzle the 164 games together. I knew from previous years that this league does start taking those G that I like fairly early and that I would not be able to rely upon that strategy as much as I would like. When the LA tandem went at the opposite turn, I thought I would look around the G situation and it was dire. I realized that many of my late targets were gone and that I might need some dubious quantity to make my GP. I resolved to draft Husso. Husso went as fast as that thought came. I had already talked myself into Merzlikins in my KKUPFL draft, despite not thinking about him at all during my prep. He has three NHL D that he didn’t have last year plus more Laine and a new coach so hopefully.

15.171 Carter Hart. Another volume G. I am hoping at this point that I can get enough other G that I can pick and choose some starts and mitigate the damage. The last two picks were in draft adjustments.

16.190 Robert Thomas. This is my late soft point getter, hopefully. I was surprised at Thomas’ FW. Better than I thought.

17.195 Sean Couturier. I had decided to take Hayton here and try for Couturier later. Shoeless took Hayton between my picks. So, I just took Couturier. He paced over 70 points for several years and seems likely to get all of the minutes he can handle.

18.215 Taylor Hall. I had Tippett lined up. I wasn’t the only one. I have drafted Hall for years but this year I was out. Dobber believes Hall won’t thrive with Bedard. And yet, Hall’s micro stats were good last year and I think he might get a ton of minutes this year. So, I’m back in for this league at least.

19.219 Ryan Johansen. He’s centering a solid second line behind MacKinnon and Rantanten and, so far, he’s PP1. Good FW taker. As someone else mentioned, can’t remember who, he could go all Nadeem Kadri.

20.238 Brock Boeser. I’d already talked myself into Boeser in the Dobber Expert league. He’s been a shooter in the past. He has had personal struggles recently. He’s PP1. Hopefully, a resurgent breakout and a bunch of goals.

21. Semyon Varlamov. Adding a G in a good goalie environment. And, my favourite of my six or so team name ideas. I had the unoriginal Tkachuky in my back pocket but I preferred some Stephen King.

22.262 Jake Walman. I had Walman in a keeper near the end of last year and knew he blocked shots. I’d seen him listed on Detroit’s PP2. I’ve since dropped him for OEL and Florida’s PP1.

23.267 Alex Nedeljkovic. I saw a tweet quoting Sullivan as saying they aren’t going to run Jarry into the ground. He’s been good on a good team. Bad on a bad. Hopefully, this year he’s good again.

24.286 Daniel Vlader. Another goalie. I have dropped him for Ivan Prosvetov, Colorado’s new backup.

25.291 Nicholas Paul. He’s been on TB PP1 in preseason. Takes face offs from LW, hits and blocks. Worth a brief stash to see if there’s something there.

My initial impression was that I liked the team. Temek has me in the mix. I’m counting on several players improving their recent form but I think there's a reason that they might.

[Maaaasquito]

Thanks for the projections!
Curious how well these have held up in years past (or if you have tried to track or note successes/failures there)?

Should be viable to move up from the middle of the pack with a couple of moves. Also liking my spot there considering it includes some sad goalie stats, and a higher likelihood for variance there propelling me up. Hoping for no sophomore slump from me this year.

Yeah I was about to comment on that... I'd take the projections with a grain of salt, these are projections for teams at the end of the draft. All it takes is 1 move like changing a point producing non-peripheral D to a non-point producing peripheral D and the projections are off...

So pretty hard to use draft day rosters then track them to end of season rankings, then yell at Temek that his projection model is crap...

[duntroon68]

I’ve always found that I finish pretty close to where Temek projects and I don’t really pay attention otherwise but I have seen a couple big deviations. Sometimes a player flops or breaks out unexpectedly. Some projections you aren’t going to change much in season. One year in the Dobber Expert, I realized I has inadvertently punted hits by the end of the first week and nothing was going to be done about it.