Time to cut Letang in my Dynasty?

[teepee1]

My league is multi category roto league. Keep 13 players plus some rookies and farm (with some games played rules). Skater Categories are G A Shots PPP PIMs Hits Blocks Takeaways. I'd consider myself to be in contention after being top 3 the last 3 seasons but coming short due to goalies.

Ive had Letang since original draft - for 15 years. I need to cut one player on my roster and with the Karlsson trade and my stacked D Im thinking its time. How do you see him doing now he is not the most gifted offensive Dman on the team. Anyone you'd drop over him? My keepers below:

F - McDavid, Tage, Tavares, Stamkos, Guentzel, Konecny, Necas, Lafreniere
D - Hamilton, Chabot, Montour, Doughty
G- Jarry

Rookies - Zegras Tippett, Kochetkov, Sanderson, Kent Johnson, Marcenko/Spencer Knight
Farm - Askarov, Nemec, Othmann, Greig

I'm cutting : - Kopitar, Zuccarello, Pavelski, Couture, Reinhart (I will try to redraft or trade as many as possible)

[ross10019]

Hmmm very tough call.

I’m on the fence.

Let’s look at your D corps.

Hamilton and Montour given his emergence are locks imo.

Chabot is still only 26 and highly skilled, but there are very troubling signs with him. First, he cannot seem to stay healthy, and the heavy usage at a young age seems to have worn him out. Second, he had not proven to be effective on the PP (ask a diehard Sens fan), and might not see PP1 time again with Chychrun there and Sanderson emerging. His peripherals are good, but nothing mind-blowing. I know it seems crazy but he’s not necessarily a lock.

Doughty is 34 in December, and had an excellent season last year after a down year. Solid PPPs and peripherals to be sure.

But let’s compare to Letang. Last year was a down year, and over the years he has certainly been a bandaid boy. But the 5-6 years before that he was amazing, and his numbers blow away Chabot and Doughty. Look at his takeaways for example, better than both, and great peripherals always.

Letang turned 36 in April, but he has the body and fitness to remain in productive for the next 2-3 years. The EK signing certainly may hurt him on the PP side, but while EK likely inherits PP1 nothings set in stone yet, and they may go 2D, and EK isn’t always healthy…. but let’s assume he loses PP time and PPPs, ok that’ll hurt one category. But he’ll still play with Crosby (most likely) at ES. If anything a slight decrease in his overall TOI may do wonders for his performance.

She back to your question.

In a keeper I’d indeed drop Letang, but it will suck, and imo it’s close with Chabot and Doughty. To me it’s just the reality of his age and limited number of years left that does it, plus having Chabot and Sanderson is a good handcuff scenario for you.

I don’t see any Fs you’d drop instead.

That said - how will Letang do in 2023/24? I think he’ll have a great season if a bit more subdued on the PP. Think high 50s to low 60s points (with lots of PP time if EL goes down, that ratchets up), and good peripheral as usual. He’ll be energized and motivated with EK there, if anything.

Good luck!

[stevegamer]

It partly depends on how many teams you have.

I think I'd explore a Jarry + Chabot deal for a real high end goalie and keep Letang.

[chuckcouples]

Montour is the drop. He's been above 40 points once in his career. He's injured all summer and unable to train and he's expected to miss the start of next season.

[Bubba55]

Seems like the answers are all over the map here (:

I was thoroughly impressed with Montour's play last year and particularly in the playoffs. He took a huge step last year and was playing hard and with big time confidence
every shift. I don't think that is going to change. The numbers may come down a bit for sure, but I think he remains a keeper for you.

Chabot, IMO, is not likely to see either Chychurn or Sanderson seriously threaten his role with the Sens. In a few years if Sanderson continues to improve and Chychurn can actually stay healthy and also continues to improve, then yes Chabot's value could decline. IMO, that is not happening next year. Maybe after that, Maybe not. Given your D, and at 26 years old, Chabot gives you the youth you likely need in a Dynasty.

I agree with ross10019: "Letang turned 36 in April, but he has the body and fitness to remain in productive for the next 2-3 years. The EK signing certainly may hurt him on the PP side, but while EK likely inherits PP1 nothings set in stone yet, and they may go 2D, and EK isn’t always healthy…. but let’s assume he loses PP time and PPPs, ok that’ll hurt one category. But he’ll still play with Crosby (most likely) at ES. If anything, a slight decrease in his overall TOI may do wonders for his performance.

Which leaves the 34-year-old Doughty. The argument here is simple and based on Dobber's projections for both Letang and Doughty:

Letang: 52 pts; 118 Blks; 160 Hits and 178 SOG
Doughty: 50 pts; 90 Blks; 97 Hits and 137 SOG

Letang is clearly the better own, and if you compare his numbers to all the other D you list you will see he remains a keeper for you. If you think Dobber's numbers are way off, well, OK. I think they are pretty accurate for Letang provided he plays the 74 games Dobber projects.

[Wonko]

I keep both Montour (lock) and Letang over Doughty (even with Karlsson coming in). As others have noted above, Letang stuffs all he categories and even if he loses the top dog roll on the PP he only loses a small number of points overall in my opinion. I think 50-55 points is a very realistic landing spot for Letang this season with an upside (Karlsson injury, lack of chemistry) over 70. Add to that his periphs and you really can't go wrong.

[random-d]

I would probably just cut Konecny and Laffy and keep Letang and Pavelski/Kopitar. The odds that you can draft a forward to fill out that spot are much better than your odds to get a dman. I would even be tempted to drop Necas as well and keep the whole trio.

[Pengwin7]

Letang over Konecny for me.
Konecny is a nice player... but there's a bunch of young forward prospects that are coming into (rising up in) the NHL that leap right into future fantasy value that is surely ahead of Konecny.
For that reason - I just think he's very replaceable keeper-forward value.

Personally, I'd ride out the rest of Letang's D positional-scarcity value... and know that in re-draft, you're looking for future Konecny replacement... which you'd be doing anyways.

[ross10019]

Letang over Konecny for me.
Konecny is a nice player... but there's a bunch of young forward prospects that are coming into (rising up in) the NHL that leap right into future fantasy value that is surely ahead of Konecny.
For that reason - I just think he's very replaceable keeper-forward value.

Personally, I'd ride out the rest of Letang's D positional-scarcity value... and know that in re-draft, you're looking for future Konecny replacement... which you'd be doing anyways.

Actually come to think of it I like that or even better dropping Necas since Konecny grittier.

[zambronies]

I think Letang is your drop.

[teepee1]

Hi all,

Thanks for the detailed and well-argued responses. Im glad Im not alone in being torn with these decisions. That is what happens when your skaters streak the field in a keeper.

I am a Kings fan and see Doughty being top dog on PP for 2 more years until Clarke pushes him down down. Whilst he is not quite at Letang levels they did score at same points per minute last year and I think Ill get a few more years out of him. Chabot doesnt do anything amazingly well but fillls the cats. And Montour's shoulder complicates things.

This is one I'll need to mull over using FHG.

Trades basically not an option in this league, very rare. I always managed to pick up quality veterans in redraft (Pavelski and Zucc this past season) as most teams prioritise youth.

For now Im maybe leaning cutting Letang or Necas.

[Wonko]

Just FYI, I read on a Keeping Karlsson tweet that Letang figures he will be on PP1 with EK65 (sorry I could not refind the link). I don't doubt that this will be the case quite often. Pittsburgh has traditionally liked to throw the best 5 players on the ice for PP1, why stop now?

[ross10019]

Just FYI, I read on a Keeping Karlsson tweet that Letang figures he will be on PP1 with EK65 (sorry I could not refund the link). I don't doubt that this will be the case quite often. Pittsburgh has traditionally liked to throw the best 5 players on the ice for PP1, why stop now?

This is why I think the predictions of a huge demise for Letang are ridiculous. We don't know what the coaching staff is thinking yet, it's all speculation - they could go with 2 D as mentioned, or it's possible (although I admit not likely) that they go with Letang instead of Karlsson at times. And of course with Letang and EK it could very easily simply come down to who is healthier.

[teepee1]

Ive cut Doughty which really hurts as a Kings fan and after paying a steep price to get him (admittedly 5 years ago). Thanks