Re: Wright vs. Slaf vs. Kakko vs. Laf
Reply With Quote
It depends if you want upside or floor.
For me- I appreciate floor but ultimately upside is the bigger dictate for me. That being said- these guys are so ridiculously young- my list is probably pretty dang close to what its been since draft day for most of them. Anyone souring on wright and slaf specifically based on there seasons suffer fromchicken little syndrome. The tim stutzles of the world- where talent, maturity, opportunity, deployment and NHL readiness all conspire to show there greatness roght out of the gate are the outlier- not the norm- even among star callibre players.
Lafreniere- a lot of armchair GMs will happily shut about how bad hes been- but this is the same contingent that decided Jack Hughes and Keller were simply mid during their struggles. The reality here is two fold- he just has NOT gotten any real deployment AND when you talk to people close to the team they are actually FLOORED by lafrenieres talent and buy in- there are clips out there of insiders literally laughing off the idea that the rags would consider trading him. Brass still thinks they've got a superstar and im willing to go with their valuation at this point. I've heard he HAS had looks in the tip six but im.not talking about four games here- or 3 games on pp1 followed by 3 on pp2- you can't build chemistry that way. Jack Hughes had all the topline and pp time he could handle and still took 3 years to really find his footing but when he did he went bananas. Thats what were looking at here. I'm not even proposing he goes nutty next year- 65 should be the goal. Give him a season or two in that range and IF he can manage that he absolutely has the foundation to become a perrenial 90+ point player. There is a long list of massive NHL stars that took this route- his development is not problematic... yet. If he gets that deployment consistently and he really underwhelms- id reconsider my stance here- but where everyone else sees "bust" all I see are glowing neon signs that say "BUY LOW!". You don't get a chance at upside like this often and when his struggles are so imminently explainable by context- its worth taking a shot. I will put in the caveat that the fantasy community at large is starting to diverge on this player but to me the divergent arguments don't hold a lot of water...
Slafkovsky- he wasn't a typical first overall because he had real queation marks on draft day but the reality is that he was always going to be a project. Your results will range from a 25 goal scorer, 55 point player all the way up to meier or even rantanen but we just won't know for a couple more seasons which direction hes headed too. He arguably shouldn't have played 4th line minutes in the NHL so his meager point totals don't tell us much of anything at this point. Like i said above you just dont get a realistic shot at 40 goals or 90 points very often so for that reason I have him second BUT with a heavy advisory that he is NOT a sure thing. Not because of one bad season but because he was always viewed as a project. The good news is Montreal is going nutty with their optimization protocols- hes wearing VR goggles and learning enhanced breathing techniques- I'm not sure all that counts for much realistically but it makes me sleep a little sounder that hes going to get every damn chance he needs to prove he can be a superstar.
A tier down...
Kakko- Kakko and wright are close and they're both also a tier down. I like Kakko a lot but at draft time and even after a season that was much improved on the ice- at least optically- the read seems to be hes just might be a much better irl life player than a fantasy option. There was a concern by scouts that he might have been one of those guys who just matured faster than his peers- and if thats the case it might call into question his absolute upside. I do still think he's got ppg upside (or better) but there's an image emerging where he might end up close to a 70 point option who is great defensively and can use his size as yet another advantage he applies to his talent portfolio. These qualities don't always lead to more scoring but they certainly add to a players value in the actual NHL which gives us a safe floor that we can work with. I will say that of all the guys on this list hes the one whose dropped the most since being drafyed- I really had high hopes that hed find a way to succeed in the NHL as a star but I wonder if my optimism was a bit misplaced. That being said he is getting similar treatment to Laffy so there is definitely still room to show us something in the next couple years. I think the fact that his upside is a bit unknown is the thing that gives him the edge over wright because...
Wright- I just dont see the upside! That being said watching him go sooo early in dynasty drafts was a little confusing to me. Everything you read about this guys game is that its not fancy, its not flashy- its meat and potatoes. On top of that hes not a player who cheats for offence very often. Hes got a brilliant hockey mind but he's shown in the early stages hes going to use that to do what the coach asks of him- rather than try and go nutty with scoring. Maybe that changes someday but I sort of don't see it at this point. I think the best Wright comparison I've heard made is Johnathon Toews. If that ends up being the case you get a ridiculously good floor (25 goals- 70 points?) but you don't get a ton in the way of upside. At his peak season or maybe when his team peaks I could see a couple ppg seasons but they will be outliers if this comparison holds. This is a great player to add and the fact that he "can't miss" so to speak- puts him in that "very good" prospect tier but not higher imho. Youre drafting a steady piece to build around not a gamebreaker. As an owner I sort of hope im wrong but I haven't turned up much to suggest otherwise.
