Ehlers vs Kuzmenko

[4T2]

Kuzmenko is just... he's a unicorn.
I honestly can't recall a player, in my lifetime, a player that buzzes around the net and gets his stick prepared for elite netmouth passes... this well.

It's just... not a typical "shooter".
We get used to 20% being the benchmark - like for regular wrister/snapper guys.
But Kuzmenko probably had more like 120 actual shots... with the other 23-ish being these tips/taps.

So... yeah, we can point to his 27%.
But also - VAN may give him a green light to shoot more.
He did 27% of 143 shots... 40g-ish.
If he does 20% of 200 shots... 40g-ish.
Are we going to call this "regression"?

He's just... a different animal than what the NHL has seen - as far as discussing SH%.
A great case study. If anybody had a chance to do b2b 25% years... it's this guy!

I would take the bet that he isn’t shooting 25% this year.

But I do agree that he will likely take more shots and still could hit around 40 goals.

I do think his value should be right around Ehlers this season.

[Pengwin7]

I would take the bet that he isn’t shooting 25% this year.

Well yeah... I would bet the under 25% too.
But if there was to be a guy that could do it - his TYPE of shot... makes him the guy.

[Belexus75]

I would take the bet that he isn’t shooting 25% this year.

But I do agree that he will likely take more shots and still could hit around 40 goals.

I do think his value should be right around Ehlers this season.

Maybe…. But his assist can go up too so not worried here

[M3taM3dia]

I touched on it but it bears repeating:

Kuzmebko played 16:15 atoi last year. He started at fifteen and a half or so in q1 and worked up to 16 and a halfish by q4.

Vancouver had no business signing a player like Kuzmebko to the contract they did. They're a supposedly rebuilding team who needed consistency and projectability. They signed him anyways. Why? I believe its because THEY believe they have an unearthed a gem and a core player. There was a roft with Tochhet- as mentioned- but Tocchet has done a 180 on this player- at least publicly in what he shares in press conferences. Tocchet went to bat for a ayer like Phil Kessel and got the most out of him. I believe the coach AND the organization are behind Kuzmenko 100%. Hexk they had to drive 18 hours out of their way for their forst meeting with him and they did exactly that.

Why does this matter? Because a core player doesn't play 16 minutes a night. Petterson ayed over 20, Horvath averaged over 20 before the trade, even boeser averaged over 19 minutes in his prime- and this year at his worst he was on the ice a minute and a half longer! This is a player who could easily- very easily stand to gain 3 to 4 full minutes of atoi.

Could he have a sophomore slump? Sure but this isn't some fresh faced rookie. Hes 27 years old and hes been a professional athlete for half a decade already. There are some very real barriers to success coming over from the KHL- language, among style, ice size- and now the suggestion is that with a year to acclimate better, to specialize his training, to develop a short hand with the coaching staff- hes going to just implode? Huh?

There have been some cogent points made as to why Kuzmenko might regress- and I can appreciate that- I really can. Looking at things like shooting percentage and secondary assists has value for anyone trying to get a bettwr understanding of this player. Those things are not the FULL picture though. A 3 to 4 minute hike in ice time, a year to acclimate better, growing chemistry with a superstar- I believe these things can at the very least offset the potential recgression thats being argued here.

Im a fan of your characterization here P7. Its always been my belief that stats only tell a part of the story- an important part- but a part nonetheless. Kuzmenkos skillets shook fun to watch. Also I just wanted to say there IS a world where this is just a consumate pro who may not have been much of a sniper- but is just doing everything he is humanly capable of to help get pucks in the nets for the Canucks. I think that should be applauded personally- hell of a player...