Karlsson to ??

[Pengwin7]

^Yeah, I won't disagree that my trade probably won't happen...
But PIT does have to clear a LOT of cap space to take on Karlsson.


The simple thing (for me) was to entertain their "least take on" cap hit - which is the 50% ($5.75m) and work from there.
[I'm a numbers person - so starting with simple equations - is attractive to me. If somebody want to provide the % retained, I'll gladly rework my trade pieces.]

1. Karlsson at $5.75m, for 4 years, is an absolute high-end asset. (worth 2-3 high-end prospects/picks, which still have risk)
2. Having a team retain $5.75m, for 4 years, with nothing to show for it also requires a massive trade-fairness. (worth two high-end prospects/picks, still risk)
I think those thoughts are very, very fair. Do you disagree with the fairness of those two items?
(At very least - grant me some closeness on "fairness"!!! \Yyou don't have to grant any points on "realistic"! I don't mind the doubt on the latter.]

The nice/clean thing about this trade is that discussion is simplified from here.
I'm not sure Grier(SJ) & Dubas(PIT) would do it... but for me, this is a nice start-off point to a serious discussion.

re: Interpolation example:
One could switch those to $8m (clause 1) and $3.5m (clause 2) and I'd change the returns to 1+1... which is sort of the "middle ground" of what people are thinking (I believe).
Maybe PIT can take on $8m... maybe they can't... maybe (just maybe) they're willing to pay for the cheaper cap hit and the greater SJ retain. I think it's (at least) up for discussion for both teams.
SJ's rebuild is BIG... they could consider being 4 years out from getting their full cap back. Heck, MIN sort of decided to do this with buying out Suter/Parise.

Do I think this *specific trade will happen? Not really.
Do I think this is fair trade IF the 50% retain was done? Yes, I do.
Do I think this trade can be pretty tightly interpolated? YES!

(I honestly didn't want to chug the full math to determine what PIT could fit. That would be a fairer discussion clause though... for somebody to say "OK. SJ will retain xx% of Karlsson - what does PIT have to give to get him at that?". I also didn't want to deal with the situational of moving Petry off roster. Numbers suggest that'll have to be done and I think some of us agree that Petry isn't going to accept a move to SJ. So I went simpler.)

If you don't want to sow bad blood - just offer your own trade.
You know that's my pet peeve - when somebody criticizes a post without really offering their own answer to OP.

You took the easy road.
You know I don't like that!!!


[Grand point to my trade scheme - it's a simple basis where somebody could interpolate the asset-return based on shifting the %retaining.]

[random-d]

My issue with the Pittsburgh speculation has always been that I don't think that Pitt has the assets that they can afford to lose AND SJ is interested in. They would almost literally have to sell the farm to get SJ to retain enough salary to fit that salary in and I can't see SJ being interested in that much imported agriculture. I think SJ would rather not move him at all than move him for a pitiful return because the market is dry.

[PenguinHunter]

My issue with the Pittsburgh speculation has always been that I don't think that Pitt has the assets that they can afford to lose AND SJ is interested in. They would almost literally have to sell the farm to get SJ to retain enough salary to fit that salary in and I can't see SJ being interested in that much imported agriculture. I think SJ would rather not move him at all than move him for a pitiful return because the market is dry.

Pittsburgh and Dubas are in a tough position... as you mention they can't afford to give up that many assets.

However on the other hand - Crosby wants them to get Karlsson... so they have to try and keep Crosby happy.

[Axeman33]

I just dont think Grier wants to retain 50% and I dont think he will. That is what is probably holding up the trade more than anything at this point.

[Daydream Nation]

My issue with the Pittsburgh speculation has always been that I don't think that Pitt has the assets that they can afford to lose AND SJ is interested in. They would almost literally have to sell the farm to get SJ to retain enough salary to fit that salary in and I can't see SJ being interested in that much imported agriculture. I think SJ would rather not move him at all than move him for a pitiful return because the market is dry.

Pittsburgh needs to trade Petry and Granlund and then with a small retention they can easily make a Karlsson trade from a cap perspective. IMO the smart thing for Dubas to do is to wait out Grier. SJ is on the hook for 39 M owed to Karlsson over the remainder of his contract and for a rebuilding team, I'm speculating the owners will want to reduce salary as long as they are a bottom 5 team in the league. Plus, there are advantages for SJ to move Karlsson this offseason. His play will decrease as he nears the end of his contract thus making his value decrease as time goes on and he makes SJ better thus hurting their tank. Plus, what if Karlsson gets hurt? The best time to trade Karlsson is right now. I think a 1st, another late pick, and some minor prospect gets the deal done assuming SJ doesn't retain that much. Grier is probably holding out for 2 main pieces which is the sticking point right now. Petry and Granlund make a combined 11.25 M. I'd be surprised if this deal doesn't get done.

[2014olympicgold]

I also don't know SJS direction they want to go with. I know they should fully rebuild, but every time I look at their CF I see Hertl for 7 more years, Couture for 4 more years, and Vlasic for 3 more years.

Vlasic is negative help on the ice, but Hertl and Couture are 2 guys that should also be moved, but essentially have full NTC (NMC + 3 team trade list).

Do SJS want guys who are 1yr away? 3yrs away? NHL ready prospects?

[kovalchuk17]

If Pittsburgh doesnt acquire EK shortly after Drew O'Connor's arbitration/contract settlement then we will know for sure Grier is the issue. All the small signs point to Pittsburgh being the only party left. If I had a 36-year old Sid playing at the level he did last season, I would definitely give him another star player to give him one last kick in the can. You owe it to a player that good and loyal to your franchise. It would be different if Pittsburgh was truly awful like Chicago, you'd have to let them decide to go to another team for a chance at a cup.

There is value to having 8m in cap space even if you retain 3.5m, can probably get an additional 2-3 draft picks taking on contracts with that space.

[Pengwin7]

If Pittsburgh doesnt acquire EK shortly after Drew O'Connor's arbitration/contract settlement then we will know for sure Grier is the issue.

I would disagree with this.
Both GMs may want to play hardball.
Dubas may know he's the only team Karlsson wants to go to... right.now.
And I think... we think... that Dubas holds the upper-hand here.
...That Grier has to consider Dubas' (low) offer... because it's the only one that is there.
I disagree there.
I do NOT believe Dubas holds the upper hand.

Grier will look bad if he parts with Karlsson for not enough.
Four.years. I can't state that hard enough.
If I'm Grier - and the offer isn't good - I just let Karlsson play on the Sharks.
He's still a fan favourite. He's still good for the lockerroom.
SJ still needs to sell tickets and have leadership and a professional environment that helps the future of the team.

Maybe Karlsson sits on the Sharks all year.
And then there's Three.Full.Years of Karlsson left.
Right?

Tell me... come March 2024 trade deadline... that Karlsson won't open up his trade-OK-destinations.
He will. If he wants a cup... he will.
And the offers will be better when teams feel they are close.
The NHL is "up for grabs", IMO, right now.
There is no longer a dominant team.

TB hit their cap struggles - has their core - and questionable depth.
COL hit their cap-players - has their core - and questionable depth.
TOR hit their cap-players - their core - I actually love their depth right now... but, hey, the pressure.
VGK won't be able to do a $93m playoff roster this year.

League is WIDE-OPEN.
Dallas, Edmonton, the Rangers, Carolina... anybody could win it this year.

The pressure... will be on Dubas... if PIT gets squeezed by the East again.

[kovalchuk17]

I should clarify, I meant Grier being the issue as in he's the holdup for the trade. That doesnt mean he isnt doing the right thing for the franchise as that is subjective at the very least. Time will tell, if the trade doesnt happen we probably gotta wait like a while to find out what the final deal on the table was from Dubas.

Grier would also look bad if EK gets hurt early in the season and they stuck with 3+ more years of 11.5m AAV lol

[Pengwin7]

Well... if the trade doesn't happen - then we likely won't know the parts.
So if Dubas is offering Petry + 1st for Karlsson... I mean... c'mon... that's not enough for 4 years of Karlsson.

I just don't think it's fair to "assume" Grier is the issue.
I kind of... well... no I really do NOT like that statement. Sorry, true.

That's way too much respect for Dubas.
Has Dubas even ever make a blockbuster trade with Leafs?!?

[random-d]

I think another real issue for Pittsburgh is if they make that investment and they fall on their faces despite it it's not gonna be a good look, and it's not going to be a fun situation to get out of. Think Fyre Festival. Not sure if Dubas is super keen on starting his tenure with an "all-in". I mean who walks up to a table to play one hand?

[Pengwin7]

I do think it's possible that the new(er) PIT ownership may-have/could-have conveyed a want to go "all-in".

For starters - PIT "just" missed playoffs last year and watched the team that jumped them, Florida (8-seed), go to the Cup final.
That speaks to how tight/competitive the East was. (yes... yes... we all know BOS' regular season point total)

Owners do - sometimes - open up a directive to their President (to trickle to GM) that they want improvement only.
That they want to go all in.

I think it's a bit of a misconception that GMs have carte-blanche to do what they want.
I'd have to guess that part of the interview/finding process is getting a GM that is willing to do what the organization (re: Owner) wants.


As a PHI fan, its very clear that previous owner rep; "Governor"; (Dave effin Scott) edged GMs to "improve only".
We all hated Fletcher - but his moves suggested that he was only permitted to improve UP.
PHI basically tore down Hextall and Hakstol because they were too "patient".
I started to revisit Fletcher moves last season because it seems everything he did was to move youth/picks for vets - in hopes of playoffs.
I really don't think a seasonedGM (Fletcher) would have thought he could build that team into a contender.
I think... he was collecting a paycheck for as long as he could by GM-ing the team in an agreeable way to the owner rep (Scott).
Ugh.

The new PHI owners-rep (Hilferty) seems to have, finally, given head-nod to the Flyers stripping it down and rebuilding.
Hence new GM:Briere and ability to move Kevin Hayes and Provorov off-roster immediately.


So... ownerships/presidents/GMs do, sometimes, have certain overall directives that are different from standard "hold some assets" management.

Florida - for example too - has gone all-in with moving draft picks in recent years.
Didn't work in the Giroux (2022) playoffs...
But paid off in recent (2023) playoff qualifying and Cup run.


It's possible PIT owners have told Dubas to go "all-in".
Unlikely. But possible.

[Eskimo Brother]

https://twitter.com/penguins/status/1687463489139347456

With Guentzel out until at least Halloween, he's eligible to be put on LTIR. I wonder if that helps facilitate a Karlsson trade, and Dubas says you know what, we'll take it one day at a time in LTIR, and if someone else comes back then we'll make a trade and sort things out when we come to it.

[Pengwin7]

^That IS some interesting MF timing.
Why wouldn't they get that done earlier?
Did the injury just happen?

[2014olympicgold]

^That IS some interesting MF timing.
Why wouldn't they get that done earlier?
Did the injury just happen?

It was a lingering injury that once he ramped up his workouts, it acted up and didn't heal the way they expected. Matthews had this same approach with an injury last yr or the yr before

I think they expect rest and non-surgery rehab to work, then once they think it's worked they ramp up and the pain returns. I'm sure this rehab approach happens a lot, and fails rarely.

To note, EF said the Penguins could try and close a deal for EK this weekend. That's such a clickbait take though. "Could try and close"...come on lol.