Karlsson to ??

[2014olympicgold]

Just curious what peoples guesses are for a Karlsson trade.

Mine is:
Karlsson ($3.5m retained) to Pittsburgh
DeSmith, Petry, 1st round pick to SJS

Cap movement
Going to Pittsburgh - $8m
Going to SJS - $8.05m

Pittsburgh Buys out Granlund for a dead caphit of $833,333 in 2023-24, then 3yrs of $1,833,333.

This has the Pitts Caphit at $82,393,544 with a 12F/8D/2G roster (can stuff around after that)

The only thing is this would set up SJS with 3 goalies. DeSmith, Blackwood (they signed July1st) and Kahkonen. Maybe they add Granlund into the trade with another sweetener instead of DeSmith, and SJS buys him out.

[Pengwin7]

SJ is going to get a defenseman prospect or TWO back from PIT.
At an absolute minimum - either Ty Smith or Owen Pickering is gonna go to SJ.
I think PIT is going to end up sending both... and stripping their prospect cupboard absolute bare in one last effort to win cup with Sid/Geno/Letang.


SJ will probably also request a "down the line" first - something that could be top20... so they may be fine with a 2026 PIT 1st.

I don't think Petry moves to SJ.
SJ still wants to have cap space for big UFA 2024 summer. I don't think they'll offer to eat that.
I think another team may have to take Petry at some other trade asset. CHI maybe. Petry has to offer 15 teams.
(But I don't think we see that trade until after the confirmation on Karlsson incoming. Obv - if Karlsson falls apart, PIT better off holding Petry.)


to PIT: Karlsson ($5.75m) [and, consider... the value of Karlsson's other $5.75m being held for FOUR years by SJ]
to SJ: Ty Smith, Pickering, Poulin, 2025 unprotected PIT 1st, 2026 unprotected PIT 1st, 2026 PIT 2nd... one of Nedel/DeSmith unclogging, Ruutta-contract ($2.75m)

I think it's going to be a massive thru-the-nose-pay by Dubas.
I mean... FOUR YEARS of Karlsson.


PIT is going to have to "EAT" Granlund buyout cap hit.
I think PIT will trade Petry off-roster elsewhere... but I don't think SJ will be an "OK" by Petry.

[ross10019]

Just curious what peoples guesses are for a Karlsson trade.

Mine is:
Karlsson ($3.5m retained) to Pittsburgh
DeSmith, Petry, 1st round pick to SJS

Cap movement
Going to Pittsburgh - $8m
Going to SJS - $8.05m

Pittsburgh Buys out Granlund for a dead caphit of $833,333 in 2023-24, then 3yrs of $1,833,333.

This has the Pitts Caphit at $82,393,544 with a 12F/8D/2G roster (can stuff around after that)

The only thing is this would set up SJS with 3 goalies. DeSmith, Blackwood (they signed July1st) and Kahkonen. Maybe they add Granlund into the trade with another sweetener instead of DeSmith, and SJS buys him out.

Sensible, but doesn't Petry have a NMC or at least 15 teams no trade list, and I imagine SJ would be on there. Maybe if they guarantee he gets traded immediately to Detroit, where he's from.

[Pengwin7]

oops - duplicate post.

[lucafen4]

SJ would probably take Granlund and Petry. It would allow less retained salary & increase return.

SJ will get more than a 1st rounder in value in a deal for EK.
He might be 11.5m - but he just dropped 100pts.

Petry, Granlund, 2024 - 1st, one of Ty Smith or Pickering & a couple B-level prospects like Svejkovsky & Legare

and probably a couple conditional picks - 2025 2nd or 3rd that can become a 1st if Pitt wins the cup in 2024 or 2025.
5th - become a 3rd if EK plays over 65 games in each of next two seasons.

[2014olympicgold]

Sensible, but doesn't Petry have a NMC or at least 15 teams no trade list, and I imagine SJ would be on there. Maybe if they guarantee he gets traded immediately to Detroit, where he's from.

Ya it's a 15 team no trade list.

It really depends how much SJS is going to retain, and it sounds like SJS doesn't want to retain more than 30%.

And also depends where SJS sees themselves.

Should be an interesting trade when/if it happens. I think we'll see the trade and go "that's all it took?".

[Pengwin7]

SJ would probably take Granlund and Petry.

I don't know about this.

That clogs $11.25m AND (more critically) two roster spots... not just for ONE season... but TWO.
And there's a huge UFA summer possibility to land a superstar next year: 2024.
You can't clog too much cap space.
Better to clog $5.75m for FOUR years than $11m for TWO, IMO.
You waste your shot at 2024 UFA if you clog $11m.


Let's not forget that CHI... part of landing Bedard... was that their team was shit by not having solid NHLers.
SJ should be looking to do the same.

Better off for them to eat $5.75m (Karlsson 50%) and have the two roster spots for inferior (younger) players like Gawanke/TySmith and Eklund.
The team will probably do worse with those guys on team.

The 2024 draft is shaping up (again) to have 3-4 pretty high-end prospects.
SJ only has to finish bottom 2 to assure themselves a top4 pick.

This past year... if they had finished just one spot lower... they land either Fantilli or Carlsson (or, if they had been 3rd last... then Bedard).
Will Smith was nice... but if they were just a *smidge* less productive on the standings table. Mmmm. So close to "bad". So close.

I don't think Grier should even *want* to take on any productive NHLer that increases his team's point outputting.

[2014olympicgold]

You would think that, but on July 1st SJS traded for Duclair. Which kinda makes me think they want to have players they can flip. But Granlund/Petry aren't those guys based off their contracts. Maybe Petry can be flipped for really nothing. Or Retained salary, but that would put them at their 3 RS slots.

It's a pretty hard thing to navigate around. I think they should be going scorched earth, but that would have me trading Labanc, and Barabanov, not trading for Duclair, not signing Blackwood.

I get the "they need to ice a team", but they added players this offseason via FA, when they should have been taking cap dumps like Chicago.

[lucafen4]

I don't know about this.

That clogs $11.25m AND (more critically) two roster spots... not just for ONE season... but TWO.
And there's a huge UFA summer possibility to land a superstar next year: 2024.
You can't clog too much cap space.
Better to clog $5.75m for FOUR years than $11m for TWO, IMO.
You waste your shot at 2024 UFA if you clog $11m.


Let's not forget that CHI... part of landing Bedard... was that their team was shit by not having solid NHLers.
SJ should be looking to do the same.

Better off for them to eat $5.75m (Karlsson 50%) and have the two roster spots for inferior (younger) players like Gawanke/TySmith and Eklund.
The team will probably do worse with those guys on team.

The 2024 draft is shaping up (again) to have 3-4 pretty high-end prospects.
SJ only has to finish bottom 2 to assure themselves a top4 pick.

This past year... if they had finished just one spot lower... they land either Fantilli or Carlsson (or, if they had been 3rd last... then Bedard).
Will Smith was nice... but if they were just a *smidge* less productive on the standings table. Mmmm. So close to "bad". So close.

I don't think Grier should even *want* to take on any productive NHLer that increases his team's point outputting.

I think teams will see Petry as an attractive deadline option.
SJ can retain on him to make the extra year more attractive.

I do agree, sending both is a big ? - That would be Dubas' ideal - also means SJ retains less on EK to get it done - attractive to SJ
at 833k this year & 1.8m the next 3 - SJ might just buy out Granlund if they are unable to trade him.
SJ would end up pretty close to even in dead cap at 50% retained... but for 2 less years.


I also can't help but wonder with Petry...
Dubas is a big fan of Brodie,
Treleving wants Dmen like Petry

it would be a lot more fun if Tor was involved in the EK talks as a 3rd team - taking on Petry with SJ retaining salary & Brodie joining EK in Pitts.
(I said fun, didn't say better or worse for Tor)

[kovalchuk17]

Petry will likely be re-routed to an eastern conference team as it has been noted he doesnt want to be too far from Michigan. Cities like Chicago might work for a western team. I imagine his 15 team list is the pacific division + a few of the central division teams.


Pittsburgh acquires:
Erik Karlsson (8m)

Granlund is bought out

San Jose acquires:
Ty Smith
1st round pick (PIT)

3.5m is retained of EK's deal

3rd team such as Chicago? acquires:
Jeff Petry
3rd round pick (SJ)

[loppantorkel]

Petry will likely be re-routed to an eastern conference team as it has been noted he doesnt want to be too far from Michigan. Cities like Chicago might work for a western team. I imagine his 15 team list is the pacific division + a few of the central division teams.


Pittsburgh acquires:
Erik Karlsson (8m)

Granlund is bought out

San Jose acquires:
Ty Smith
1st round pick (PIT)

3.5m is retained of EK's deal

3rd team such as Chicago? acquires:
Jeff Petry
3rd round pick (SJ)

I think you nailed it. Going with this

[rataylor22]

There is not chance Pittsburgh is going to have to pay as much as P7 is proposing lol. They’re bidding against nobody.

[Eskimo Brother]

Couple initial points:
-Petry has said he doesn't want to go to SJ. He is willing to stay in the Eastern half of the league, closer to home in Michigan. Problem is, outside CHI, no one can take his full cap. Even at half-retained, there aren't many teams that would need/want him that could also fit him. Maybe NJ, maybe PHI, maaaaybe OTT. But they might have to sort it out without moving Petry.
-From that, I wonder if we don't see one of Rust or Rakell be deemed expendable, and their salary shipped out paves the way for fitting in Karlsson. Neither player's contract was signed by Dubas, and it's possible that if both are kept, at least one will end up on the third line anyways.
-It sounds like SJ is aiming to retain closer to 25%, rather than 50%. That would put Karlsson at $8.625M, which is still reasonable for the first year or two of him anyways. What that means though, is money certainly has to come out.
-O'Connor's arb case will open a second buyout window, which looks planned, and almost certainly results in Grandlund's buyout.
-Ty Smith makes sense as a piece going back to SJ. PIT doesn't need him with Letang/Karlsson, and SJ would like him with no one else to run their PP.
-When Patches moved, and Burns moved, there was not a ton of return, mainly due to the fact that there was no market, and the cap makes it so tough to move out players like that unless you're almost giving them away. Karlsson comes with more flare, and so he will command some return, especially since the cap will have to be balanced with some money going back to SJ, but it does bear mentioning.
-PIT is at 49/50 contracts, so they will like to shed at least one in the deal. SJ is at 47/50, so they probably only want to take on at most one more.

I think from all this, we do still see a first rounder moved, we see Ty Smith in the package, and we see some money go back to SJ. Some additional money likely ends up being Rutta, who is expendable. DeSmith could move too, but SJ doesn't really need a third goalie.

Two options, with and without Petry:

1)
*Buyout Granlund
To PIT E. Karlsson (@30% retained - $8M)
To SJ - PIT 2025 1st (Top-5 protected), Ty Smith, Jan Rutta
to CHI - Jeff Petry, PIT 2024 2nd

2)
*Buyout Granlund
To PIT E. Karlsson (@42% retained - $6.67M), Anthony Duclair** (@50% retained - $1.5M)
To SJ - PIT 2025 1st (Top-5 protected), PIT 2024 2nd, PIT 2026 3rd, Ty Smith, Jan Rutta, Rickard Rakell

**I could see a scenario where there is a forward swap with one of Duclair/Barabanov coming back to lighten the salary going to PIT without retaining more on Karlsson.

I think both of these deals work cap-wise, and are at least close to what might need to happen to get it done with or without Petry being moved.

[Pengwin7]

There is not chance Pittsburgh is going to have to pay as much as P7 is proposing lol. They’re bidding against nobody.

In my trade, I have SJ retaining 50% (for the full four years).
The value of Karlsson at $5.75m is one thing.
The value of not having to retain Karlsson's other $5.75m is another thing.
That is/should be an absolute massive return.
[People don't get a collector car at an auction for $100 because "nobody is bidding". The owner still recognizes that somebody might want it... down the road.]


If PIT is going to take the full $11.5m... then I'd probably pull out 3/4 major asssets.
For every $2m of cap hit... (which is $8m over 4 years)... you can pull out a major asset (From best-to-worst: 2026 1st, 2025 1st, Pickering, TySmith)
We've seen what teams pay (Giroux-FLA) to rent a player for just two months and one playoffs.
This.is.four.years.of.Karlsson. FOUR.
Multiply Tippett x 4... easily... if four full years at $5.75m.
That's a better player (Karlsson vs. Giroux) at a cheaper cap hit for more than 4x the length.

I don't think SJ is as pigeon-holed here as people think.
Karlsson isn't going to want to be in SJ for the next FOUR years. He'll be age 38 if he plays out that contract.
He'll want out. He's aging. He has no cup. The lockerroom, city, org, his family/friends... all know he is up for leaving.
He's a good guy - but he's still an $11.5m anchor to a team that needs to rebuild.
SJ could play hardball here and win with him.
I don't think Karlsson (even with NMC, yes) has the leverage on this long a-prison sentence.
PIT is in its final run with its aging core.
They need to secure this option NOW, with the window available for buyout.
Dubas is going to look like a fool if people think he's close and he doesn't get it done.
He'll pay. These aren't his parts. He can blame the GM before him for the position. He.can.pay.

(This isn't a Giroux 2-month loan. This is FOUR years. The return will very much reflect what SJ retains.)

[rataylor22]

I mean you can type “he will pay” all you want, but I simply disagree. Karlsson has requested a trade AND has a NMC, it is widely reported that his preferred destination is Pittsburgh, and the list of teams who can fit Karlsson and he wants to go to are no more than 3. And then all of those 3 teams have to also want Karlsson. SJ won’t retain 50%, it simply isn’t going to happen, but Dubas also isn’t going to have to pay more than a 1st plus one of Smith/POJ/Pickering/Poulin. He may have to pay an additional asset to get rid of Petry, but it won’t be one of the remaining 3. I mean, maybe SJ wants one of the other prospects instead of a first and maybe that works for Dubas.

I’d be willing to bet next years WHL fee on it, but then again it’s not that serious and I don’t want to sow bad blood between friends lol.