[SIGNED] Samsonov 1x $3.55

[pmorrow]

With Toronto.

https://twitter.com/FriedgeHNIC/stat...A-cnUuyHw&s=19

[2014olympicgold]

I made a post on this today but completely didn't missed this thread already.

It ended up being $100k less than the mid point of both sides numbers ($2.4/$4.9).

I like this, and it really shows goalies are slowly going into the running back territory of the NHL. The margin of goalies talent is so small it seems that teams are becoming smart on "throwing crap at a wall and seeing what sticks". Good teams invest on team defense and spend lightly in net (Vegas, Leafs, Carolina), bad teams try to cover up issues with mediocre goalies (Ottawa, Edmonton, Detroit, Washington).

Only the top 1% can cover up systemic defensive issues, and they don't come cheap (Helly, Prime Price, Bob, Shesterkin, Demko), and they can't do it all themselves in today's NHL unless you get hot at the right time.

Should be interesting the domino effect this will cause.

[tweetdrivr]

I’d argue this is continuing a trend, not setting one. It’s somewhat odd too in that it’s an arbitration award. But as I said elsewhere, this is in line (outside the one year term as it is arbitration) with the last few RFA goalie contracts. This group of young RFA goalies (Oettinger, Swayman, Gustavsson, Samsonov, Geprgiev) is going to break the bank when these contacts are up and they’ve played well.

[Pengwin7]

Hmmm. I don't know. I disagree.
Based on NHL drafting, I haven't seen any NHL teams completely shucking the chance to draft a future #1 goalie.
If a "good"+ goalie wasn't required... nobody would be spending 2nd round-ish draft picks on them.

Just look at this:

The NHL had six goalies drafted from picks 35-70 this past draft:
35 Gajan (CHI)
38 Hrabal (ARI)
41 Augustine (DET) - which is interesting given the Cossa draft a few years ago
51 Bjarnson (PHI)
60 Clara (ANA)
69 Fowler (MON)

If you also look at these teams, these are all "bottom 8" teams in the NHL last year.
They are looking to the future - and they want a goalie for their rebuild.
GMs aren't dummies... if simply having a high-end defensive system was enough... they'd do it.

I think this is a horse/cart sort of issue.
IF a team ends up having a very dynamic defense/defensive system THEN you can afford the luxury of throwing an "average" goalie back there (VGK, CAR)
But you need a full six D core AND good two-way forwards. 10+ key defensive players. I don't know if expecting to shape up this crew is "simple".

[re: OTT/EDM/WSH - these arent' teams that can afford to wait for development. They are playoffs or declining chances. They "have to" sign the best they can.]

And... no GM knows that they can do this into the future. To acquire and put this talent together comes at a cost of constant flux of contracts coming in.
I mean - look at Vegas - they MISSED THE PLAYOFFS last year. One can't say they felt they were close and "knew" they could just throw any old goalie at it.

A team actually has to get quite lucky with finding a diamond-in-rough type of defender or two - as CAR did with Slavin.
VGK happens to have good defensive forwards land with them to compliment their defense.

The NHL goes through waves of "what works".
But just a few years ago with Tampa Bay (Vas) - we'd be saying "and you need a really good goalie".
STL made their Cup run with redhot Binnington AND a solid defense.


I think we all know that an elite C1 is paramount to having a CUP shot run.
And then having elite D1 or high-end 4D is critical to having a CUP run.
And, beyond that, I think you need a high-end or "hot" goalie.
For a guy like Adin Hill - there weren't "expectations" that he was expected to carry them.
I think that made it work. Goalies can do really, really well when there aren't expectations.
(Wait until you see Hill's SV% this year with that big $4.9m contract in hand.)


In short, interesting theory - but not nearly as simple as it sounds.
(Might as well say "The secret to NHL success is to acquire a superstar generational elite C1".
Yes, true - also, near impossible without draft lottery luck.)
Much simpler org-strategy: Invest (i.e. draft) a goalie with high-draft pick and take your 50/50 shot that your (round 1 or round 2) goalie pick times in 5+ years post-draft when your team is popping.
This is what CAR (Kochetkov), MIN (Wallstedt), DET (Cossa), and BUF (Levi) are hoping on. [DET looks like they are in doubt w/Cossa - rightfully so - and re-upped on a future G1 investment.]
It's what OTT (Sogaard) and BUF (UPL) hoped on... but didn't work out for. It doesn't mean they didn't try to do it.

TOR probably should have invested in developing a high-end goalie with a draft pick on one back in 2017, 2018 (with Matthews/Marner in hand).
But Dubas didn't do that. Maybe that was Dubas' biggest, grandest mistake... expecting he could throw anybody back there.
Since 2006, the Leafs have ONLY spent a 3rd rounder or better ONCE on a draft goalie.
It was 2016... and that prospect was Joseph Woll.
Maybe things would be different for the Leafs if they HAD invested more in a prospect goalie... rather than thinking a defense/defensive-system was enough.

[2014olympicgold]

I think teams scouting of goalies is better than it was years ago. And we're seeing the correction from the time that people were scared of drafting a goalie high. I think tho, teams understand they can develop goalies but also understand there's enough options out there if they don't develop a goalie, they can get one in FA if their system is strong.

Teams Number 1 Option:
Draft and develop a goalie so you can hold onto them until they're 27yrs old cheaply.

Teams Number 2 Option:
Know that you can get a goalie cheap and have them be effective if your team is strong, but you only have them for a couple of years.

I agree with P7, but my thought pass was more if you don't have a goalie in your system that's ready, you can find one a lot easier than in the past. And that oversaturation of that tier 3 goalie pushes the middle goalie salary down.

And @tweet, I meant interesting domino in the terms of the Leafs situation, not goalie situation. But after the Coyotes and Chayka tried the "poop at wall" strategy one yr and acquired Dubnyk, Kuemper, Wedgewood, Raanta, Stuart Skinner (Draft), Adin Hill, Kallgren (Drafted), I think teams kind of looked at that and went...huh, that's interesting. Like he got 7 goalies across 2016-2019 and 2 of them have cups now. His team just couldn't make them look good enough to stick.

But ya, I think teams want a drafted and developed goalie, and think they have the resources now to target and make that happen (high investment picks). But understand a strong team can make those invested goalies that failed elsewhere look good on your team. But because of the higher scoring, more high flying NHL, we'll see goalies overall salaries drop, with the top 3 being high, then a big drop off.

[Pengwin7]

...if their system is strong.

I think that's a big IF statement.
And it's coupled with referencing Adin Hill's success on a team (VGK) that was rostering a $90m+ skater unit.
And then it's doubled-down by suggesting ARI was doing something right with mass-stocking "meh" goalies. (*I think this was more Chayka being smart about COVID situation... it was a "short-play" on needed goalie depth - and if anything - every NHL team does, now, want a 3rd goalie that is experienced. We see this with Detroit signing Reimer AND Alex Lyon this past summer.)


I love you man...
But...

This is an opinion that feels like somebody grabbing five things out of a fridge and saying "Mystery Party Platter"!
And then explaining that it's a new working party trick because you had a buddy that pulled this off at a party - look, it can work!
[all depends on what your buddy had in his fridge. May be totally different than what's in a normal fridge!!!]
[does.not.represent.as.a.proper.trend.]

[kovalchuk17]

definitely some similarties to how teams are constructed with the stars and scrubs allocation for various positions across the different sports that have some sort of cap system in place. the middle class typically loses the most dollars and it is seemingly even more volatile for seemingly super important positions like running back (NFL) and goalie.

i feel much better having a stud back there in net though lol.

[2014olympicgold]

Chayka resigned July 2020, 1 day before the start of the 2020 playoffs. So it's not a COVID situation in his case.

I rather spend $20m on a top 4 D, and $3m on a goalie than $8m on a goalie and $15m on defense (obviously if all the players are performing to their dollar figure floor-to-ceiling potential).

[tweetdrivr]

And @tweet, I meant interesting domino in the terms of the Leafs situation, not goalie situation.

Gotcha. My mistake.

[2014olympicgold]

Ok, interesting point on salary here.
Top 30 goalies cap hit (not including Price) = $5,207,911
Top 5 goalies cap hit (not including Price) = $7,663,333

Top 30 centers =$9,057,933
Top 5 centers = $11,548,050

Top 30 defense = $8,325,816
Top 5 defense = $10,216,667

I took the average of the top 5 caphits of centers, defense, and goalies, then took the average caphits of #6-30 of each position. The cap hit difference from the top 5, then everyone else is:
Goalies = $2,946,507
Centers = $2,988,140
Defense = $2,269,021

I thought the goalies would have a much higher gap between the top 5 and everyone else. That might be because I didn't include Price...I felt like he shouldn't be added in the figures. If you include him though:
Goalies = $3,706,507. Which is what I was expecting.

*I'm not very good at explaining math like this though...sorry guys.

[random-d]

I plotted a line graph in Excel with the top 50 from each of the positions you specified and there's really only a significant step between the top 3-4 at each position. It's pretty linear otherwise although you can kinda see how there are "stepdowns" which might be an interesting method of "binning" players if you're in a cap league.