Connor Bedard expectations

[StuntMan12]

Interesting the level of caution by most posters on Bedard in year 1. I looked at playnow's odds for Bedard's goals, the under/over is at 32.5.

For Bedard's points the under/over is at 69.5.

I would be betting the over if I had some extra money lol.

[random-d]

Interesting the level of caution by most posters on Bedard in year 1. I looked at playnow's odds for Bedard's goals, the under/over is at 32.5.

For Bedard's points the under/over is at 69.5.

I would be betting the over if I had some extra money lol.

I'm sure most of the people are fine with the player, it's the team that will likely limit his success.

[Pengwin7]

Interesting the level of caution by most posters on Bedard in year 1. I looked at playnow's odds for Bedard's goals, the under/over is at 32.5.

For Bedard's points the under/over is at 69.5.

I would be betting the over if I had some extra money lol.

^This hits exactly how I predicted.
It's the right number for people to say "Oh - isn't this guy a generational talent... he'll do 70+ points".
But as chuckcouples remarked, Bedard's current game isn't NHL-level-high-end RIGHT NOW...it's WHL-dominant - and there's a big difference.
And as I said, Chicago's offense from the back is atrocious - just look at Pat Kane's output in Chicago last year (which I predicted would be sub 70pt pace - for Pat.effin.Kane!)
Pat Kane... (PAT KANE!)... paced for 68pts in Chicago last year.

Vegas is looking to rake "over" bets on Bedard... very profitable here.
But the "over" on 69.5pts is definitely not the "smart" money.

[and CHI added a couple forwards, yes, but Nick Foligno could shoot 2%... he could shoot 11%... he'll probably miss 20+gp... such was last two seasons with Boston - whose D could at least move the puck.]

[Taylor Hall isn't quick enough, IMO, for modern NHL.. especially what he provides on defensive-side. Does CHI really want to put a player next to Bedard that could putt Bedard's +/- into the sub -20 range? His declining numbers are evidence. I don't think he's ever played with a linemate in Connor Bedard's likeness. I forecast a lot of "watching" by Hall. I'll be curious to see if they fit with each other. It's no long that Hall and Bedard work together.]


People should definitely be taking an under on 69.5pts.

[StuntMan12]

One thing to note is players also improve throughout the season also (Depending on the situation and player of course). Bedard may or may not be high level NHL player right now (yet to see) but that could change as the season goes on, who knows as he gets 10 games in and he adjusts ect. McDavid wasn't working with much back in his rookie season either and still averaged a ppg. Crosby from what I remember was averaging roughly a ppg after 55 games or so then turned it up down the stretch and hit 100 points.

[Pengwin7]

McDavid and Crosby both had more NHL-ready skills & frames.
And... I wouldn't say it was close or comparable.

I honestly think it's a major mistake to drop Bedard in with these guys for discussion.
Bedard will *pop*... but I think, if you keep checking around with NHL experts, you won't see any Crosby/McDavid-level rookie-year comparisons.
They simply aren't in the same NHL-readyness.

Bedard's hockeyIQ, hands, and decision-making are NHL-ready.
That's enough for him to survive, not make mistakes, play with NHL talent, and score... somewhat.

But - again, Crosby & McDavid were a different level at age 18.

[PenguinHunter]

Oh…. Which way will this go?

which way is the NHL going.
Scoring seems to be way up.
it wasn’t that long ago we were lucky to see 100 point producers.
last year we had quite a few.
So one could argue that 70 is the new 55.


on the other hand - Chicago doesn’t have very many options getting lots of points.
So Bedard can’t produce a tonne of points without someone else compiling a large amount as well.

Chicago is going to be a dumpster fire.
So they won’t always be playing their top defensive units against Bedard.
If a team is up 6-2 on Chicago, they won’t be line matching,
thus giving Bedard some openings to produce ‘garbage time’ points.

So if Hall can stay healthy and produce, I would predict a 74 point total from Bedard in his rookie season.

[StuntMan12]

13 games
9 goals
4 assists
13 points

Off to a good start to say the least. The no look goal was insane.

[Pengwin7]

Incredible thing so far is the 11 even-strength points in 13gp.
He's doing better than I expected: 68pts - my prediction.
The grind through March/April (games 60-82) will be the tough part.

[It is a bit cherry picking, though - right now. Before the trip to Florida he was 7pts in 11gp... but the 6pts in last 2gp has been great. Would've been interesting to see him get 4pts against TB's Vasilevskiy though!]

[2014olympicgold]

He has more goals than Ovi through both their first 13games of their careers.

It would be fun to see him go if he had talent around him too.

[Canucks_fan18]

He seems like he is getting better. He's in incredible shape. Perry and Foilgno are the next closet to him in points, Let me say that again Perry and Foilgno. I can't recall a player in recent memory including Matthews and McDavid playing with a squad so scarce to start their careers. What he is doing is special.