Bedard signed entry deal today. Which year does the Blackhawks enter the playoffs again?

[loppantorkel]

What is the timeline for the turnaround with an expected generational player joining the team?
I don't remember if it took two years or so for Crosby, but he had Malkin and Fleury too. edit: I checked. Pittsburgh made the playoffs the second year in his career.

It will probably take a few years to get the answer to this question. Vote if you please.

[Pengwin7]

Three seasons, 2025-26 seems right.
Good thing the Hawks are in the West, because the Eastern Conference is brutal these days.
VGK, EDM, COL, DAL, LA, MIN should hold in the West three years from now.
SEA should continue to grow into a place as Beniers and Wright mature/develop.
That's 7 of 8 spots... but the 8th is wide-open and I think CHI will take it.


WPG, CGY, VAN, STL, SJ... these teams should drop or not-contend.
Anaheim and Arizona could rise-up... especially ANA, I think - could *pop* with all their young D.
VAN is also just one key 2024 FA signing from jumping up into contention.


But there's a very, very clear opening for CHI to rise-up.
And... IF they land a big name 2024 UFA... could be next season even.


My odds:
5% 2023-24
35% 2024-25 (40% overall likelihood by s2 playoffs)
45% 2025-26 (80% overall likelihood by s3 playoffs)
15% 2026-27 or later...

[loppantorkel]

Nice analysis, much appreciated!
They're in the West which should make things easier, but it's 7 relatively stable teams + an Arizona which is further ahead and possibly has a better talent pool atm, and if they move to Houston or wherever... I just looked at Chicago's signed players and it's not pretty from what I can tell. I love to see how this plays out and what Bedard will be able to do, but if I had to put money on this, I'd guess there's a bit of a prolonged bleakness ahead. Not Buffalo level, but three years of wasted Bedard years before playoffs.

Chicago should be able to attract more FA compared to Detroit and Buffalo, I assume. Might speed things up a bit...
edit: ...and Scott Wheeler has the Blackhawks at #5 in Prospect pool even before the Bedard pick. Otoh, they were ranked #25 in 2022, so I'm not sure.

[Pengwin7]

Crosby took the Pens to playoffs his 2nd year. (though, they were loaded with "assets" from previous seasons: Malkin, J.Staal, Gonchar signed as UFA for Sid's rookie year)
McDavid took the Oilers to playoffs his 2nd year. (though, they were loaded with "assets" from previous seasons: RNH, T.Hall, Eberle, Draisaitl etc.)

I do think Bedard & CHI will need one-year more.
CHI is not yet loaded with anything close to the high-level of prospects.
And they don't... yet... have an established PP1 D-man to run that powerplay. (Seth Jones is OK... he's not electric though.)

It's definitely a different setting than what PIT & EDM (& WAS, for that matter with OV, then Backstrom & Semin & Green) had on-roster.

[audiopile]

Im going with 26/27 since he is the first piece. I reserve the right to extend this prediction within two years of this post in case Bedard isnt what he is hypoed to be.

[pmorrow]

A lot of factors could change this, such as the Central weakening, the Blackhawks hitting on their recent picks, some shrewd free agent or trade acquisitions, and some more draft lottery luck this year to bag Celebrini or Eiserman or whoever, but I feel like there is going to be years of frustration in Chicago as (some) fans hopes for a fairly quick turnaround are dashed. I'd peg it at 4-5 years.

[2014olympicgold]

I know the modern NHL goaltending is that you can have an average goalie with high end defense and succeed. However, I don't see the Hawks having that yet and they don't have the goalie right now to change that.

They can change that instantly especially with their cap space and 2nd round draft pick totals over the next few yrs. They invested in Drew Commesso in 2020, but he's yrs away (2nd round pick). They also drafted Adam Gajan this yr in the 2nd round. And a very solid yr in college by Dominic Basse (6'6" goalie) could completely change how I feel about their goalie futures. But no one is 2-3yrs away from having an effect on the team.

I say 3yrs away from being a playoff position threat (ends up finishing like 10th), but 4yrs away from being a legit playoff push. I'll remove a yr if they get a legit goalie.