Mercer vs 2023 class

[Lindros88]

Just trying to figure out where Mercer would go in comparison to the players in the 2023 class. Dynasty/multicat/cap league. I'm having a hard time figuring this one out. I have an offer that gets me into the top 10.. I just want to know where in the top 10 is good enough to swap out Mercer.

[LuigiC173]

he is above anyone not named Bedard or Fantilli with two complete 82 game seasons under his belt with increased point totals year over year.

[Lindros88]

he is above anyone not named Bedard or Fantilli with two complete 82 game seasons under his belt with increased point totals year over year.

I mean "yes" in the sense of "proven over potential." But I'm also a big gambler when it comes to players and try to swing for that big upside. Sometimes it hits, sometimes it doesn't hah (damn Yakupov, Patrick and Kravtsov). So are you saying he'd be taken 3rd, or just proven vs potential?

[LuigiC173]

I mean "yes" in the sense of "proven over potential." But I'm also a big gambler when it comes to players and try to swing for that big upside. Sometimes it hits, sometimes it doesn't hah (damn Yakupov, Patrick and Kravtsov). So are you saying he'd be taken 3rd, or just proven vs potential?

You have to provide far more details regarding primarily your contention window. You have no team listed, no categories, no context, etc. My analysis is simply from the mindset of someone who goes for gold EVERY year. Right here and now in a vacuum, he's third best IMO. If you won't contend for three years or more, Michkov is third.

[Lindros88]

I'm coming off the W last season, 16 team league. My team honestly got hot at the right time, but was nowhere near the best team in the league. With cap concerns and the need to move some of my expensive aging players, I'm looking at say 3 seasons before my younger guys become solid consistent contributors and roster mainstays.

[LuigiC173]

I'm coming off the W last season, 16 team league. My team honestly got hot at the right time, but was nowhere near the best team in the league. With cap concerns and the need to move some of my expensive aging players, I'm looking at say 3 seasons before my younger guys become solid consistent contributors and roster mainstays.

Hey that's how I lost in the semis after losing once the entire reg. season meeting up with the hot team. If contention is three out then Mercer moves to fourth for me, he's young, producing on a prolific offense. Anyone after Michkov I don't know enough about to say they will be far and beyond what Mercer could be but again others may think differently. Worst comes to worst, Dawson still only like 24 at that time. Biggest thing is where exactly in top ten is this deal going to place you?

[Lindros88]

Haha.. yea, the better team definitely lost to me in the finals. His goaltending broke down at the wrong time. 24 is definitely still young, then I look at it (since it's a cap league) with Mercer's $ vs 3yrs of ELC I can stash.

I would get the 7th ov pick in this one.

[Belexus75]

Just trying to figure out where Mercer would go in comparison to the players in the 2023 class. Dynasty/multicat/cap league. I'm having a hard time figuring this one out. I have an offer that gets me into the top 10.. I just want to know where in the top 10 is good enough to swap out Mercer.

This is tricky and needs staged answer imo:

for next year he is probably #2 at worst #3 as Luigi said

3 years from now he is probably closer to #6-7

5 years from now i dont think he is in top 15

[Pengwin7]

^Great answer here.
The 2023 is a pretty strong draft for forwards.
All of the big4 will be better than Mercer... probably Will Smith and Ryan Leonard and Zach Benson's offensive stats will be as well in 3+ years.

[RizzeeDizzee]

I see Mercer having a very similar trajectory as Verhaeghe, i.e., steady and stable but unspectacular. Is it likely that Bedard and Fantilli will fare better than that? I'd say so. Will others too? Probably, but there is a bird in hand factor with Mercer. To me it'd depend a lot on the team's near term aspirations. If patience is plausible, I might make the deal. If not, I'd stick with the known commodity.

[random-d]

These are always a flawed method of comparing players unless you normalize the comparison via some equivocation that makes the starting point the same. You can't compare player X that already has 2 or 3 years in to player Y who has never played a game and expect an accurate assessment. You either compare them draft year to draft year or you project the draft year players stats out to a point where the other player is now. In a comparison like this the player already playing games is going to beat out all but the best talent in a draft so it's not very useful to even ask the question in most circumstances. Having said that Mercer is probably in the late teens to mid-twenties in this draft (+/-5).

All you need to do before attempting to assess something like this is ask yourself "Do I need a player that's playing now more than the potential I might get later". Then it's a simple yes or no.

[jshed2]

Looking at this in where I expect players to be in 3 years from now:

Tier 1: Bedard, Michkov, Fantilli, Carlsson > Mercer - I expect these guys to be well past Mercer's development
Tier 2: Smith, Benson, Leonard = Mercer - These guys will likely be outperforming Mercer at this point but Mercer gets value in the next year or two where these guys may be developing
Tier 3: The rest of the 1st rd < Mercer - Roll of the dice here. I expect 2-5 players will be better than Mercer in 3 years, but its a roll of the dice and you know what you are getting with Mercer

So I'd probably take a top 7 pick for Mercer, but pass on anything lower on a value standpoint. Factoring in that your are competing now, the value in the next couple years probably means that I'd want a top 4 pick to make it happen.