Why are people (including Dobber) not as high on Levi as I am

[Luffy D Monkey]

I've noticed that people are not as high on Levi as I am.
I understand that he will probably be the backup or may not even be in the NHL this coming season, but there's also a less than zero chance that he takes over the starter role sometime during the season.
Also I understand that Buffalo hasn't been good but they do look like they're on the upward trend.
Any thoughts?
Thanks

[Pengwin7]

Levi is a prospect.
Andrew Raycroft was a prospect once, showing great NHL promise...
Jim Carey was a prospect once, showing great NHL promise...
Steve Mason was a prospect once, showing great NHL promise...

Two years ago many of us were gaga about Alex Nedeljkovic.

#RememberTheHamburglar

Dryden Mackay was the 2022 Hobey Baker winner in the NCAA.


All big names... right...
Big, dependable, sure-fire hockey goalies.

[ericdaoust]

Would be nice to see some receipts posted here as to who is actually not high on Levi and what their comments were

[rataylor22]

Would be curious if this is dynasty or one year. I won't be surprised if Levi struggles a decent amount this year. He's still going to a team that isn't elite defensively, and the NHL schedule is nothing like the college schedule. Even if he takes over as "starter" I think he's maxing out at 50 games. And honestly I think that number is too high. So in a one year league, how valuable is 45 games from Buffalo's starter?

And then in dynasty, there's a bunch of clearcut #1s I'd rank him behind, and then a decent sized list of prospects I'd rather have (Askarov, Wallstedt, Wolf, Kochetkov) before he's probably in the conversation with Cossa, Dostal, maybe Tarasov, etc. So really what counts as "low".

[senryu]

The path to relevance for Levi is strong and easy to see. No one of consequence in front of him on the Sabres; he seems to have passed UPL on the prospect ladder. Contrast that with, say, Dostal where Gibson's contract looks to be sitting there.

Whether he can perform is a different question, unknowable at this point, even with the small sample size. He probably can, but the list of goalie prospects who looked good and then petered out stretches from Key West to Vancouver Island.

I think that when the path to relevance is clear, it is easier to believe in the ability to perform. The puzzle pieces are on the table and are dying to be connected. But we won't know until there's more track record. That might be a reason for disparity in Levi evaluation as of today, it just looks so clear that he can take the job soon and run with it.

[lucafen4]

The list of goalies in the past decade that are 6'0" and have become true #1 goalies in the NHL is a very short one.
His agility & movements need to be elite to make up the size difference.
The odds are not entirely in his favor.

[Axeman33]

I'm not a big fan because of his size. He looks small in the net, much like Jack Campbell looks small in the net.

[Daydream Nation]

Personally, I think the hype is a little overblown. I own him in a league and while I am very optimistic, he is far from a sure thing for many of the reasons listed in this thread. In terms of relying on one person's ratings, I look at a number of prospect evaluators and form my own opinion.

[Feenom]

Still doing the eye test. Sometimes he looks very good other times just...meh. Need bigger NHL sample size.

[Molly The Hawks Fan]

I think he will end up at most splitting time as a tandem goalie once he settles in. I don't think he has the stamina to hold down the rigors of a full time starting job.

[Nylander2.0]

Would be curious if this is dynasty or one year. I won't be surprised if Levi struggles a decent amount this year. He's still going to a team that isn't elite defensively, and the NHL schedule is nothing like the college schedule. Even if he takes over as "starter" I think he's maxing out at 50 games. And honestly I think that number is too high. So in a one year league, how valuable is 45 games from Buffalo's starter?

And then in dynasty, there's a bunch of clearcut #1s I'd rank him behind, and then a decent sized list of prospects I'd rather have (Askarov, Wallstedt, Wolf, Kochetkov) before he's probably in the conversation with Cossa, Dostal, maybe Tarasov, etc. So really what counts as "low".

Wow….Cossa really? He’s garbage. Dostal and Tarasov are also no where’s near Levi.

I take Levi over Wolf and Kochetkov and maybe the other 2 aswell

[rataylor22]

Wow….Cossa really? He’s garbage. Dostal and Tarasov are also no where’s near Levi.

I take Levi over Wolf and Kochetkov and maybe the other 2 aswell

........in your opinion.........

Any data based prospect modelling would strongly disagree, for example.

[Pengwin7]

Yes, rataylor22 has this right.

Statistically all we know about Devin Levi is that he has been incredible in a very weak NCAA hockey East.
He has shown no knocks AGAINST becoming a great goalie... but the shooters in NCAA, especially Hockey East aren't firing pucks anything near AHL/NHL level: full grown, strong, high-end men.
[fwiw, Lane Hutson has been torching this fairly weak league as well. Northeast college hockey ain't what it once was...]

Wolf, Dostal, Kochetkov, and Tarasov have all been, at least, facing AHL pucks (prob. 85% shot-level of NHL-quality) for 2+ years.
AHL & KHL >>> NCAA

(I'm not sure how ECHL ranks vs. NCAA... but Cossa's .913 at ECHL may be a concern. I'd definitely expect his .920ish WHL SV-rate to be higher in ECHL... which I think, should be weaker league than WHL.)
(That said, I don't think any of us know the defense quality of the Toledo Walleye. Maybe they have a bunch of ankle-benders that give up high% shots. IDK. Pretty sure we don't have any ECHL analysts on the forums!)

[tweetdrivr]

I have worked as a statistician for the Rapid City Rush off and on for a number of years. The ECHL is not a developmental league. There are not many young players. It’s a men’s pro league and many of the franchises are routinely struggling. It’s all about the product. Winning teams, fights, exciting hockey. It’s not about teaching young players good hockey. Goalie stats are routinely terrible and all over the place. Emphasis is on scoring, not sound D. I would fully expect a young goalie to struggle in the ECHL and they routinely do. Doing well in the ECHL is hard.

[Pengwin7]

The ECHL is not a developmental league. Doing well in the ECHL is hard.

It's a bit crazy to read this with DET sending Cossa there.
Just looked it up... the Toledo Walleye were a good team last year.
They were actually 2nd BEST in ECHL for goals against.

Cossa was trash in his opening games last season with Grand Rapids (AHL).
I'd have to think DET/Yzerman didn't want to have him lose his confidence there.
https://theahl.com/stats/player-stat...age=1&league=4

Each team will have a directive from their NHL head though.

Anyways...
John Lethemon was 18-1-3 for a good Toledo team... with .930sv%.
Sebastian Cossa was 26-16-4 " " " " " ... with .913sv%.

[Lethemon was former NCAA with Michigan State who had .873/.903/.905/.935sv% in college... and since .903/.911/.930 in ECHL... which is a progression that sort of matches-up.]

We'll see on Cossa - but I'd have to think the GR-AHL coaches felt like he was going to get lit-up all season at AHL level.

(Which again... towards the point-at-hand re:Levi... the AHL is a GOOD league and will torch a goalie that isn't ready too see higher-end shooters.)