Dylan Guenther vs the class of 2023

[deantime419]

What is wrong with you people? Guenther went 9th in a very weak draft class and you think he should go 5th against this year's draft class?

I wouldn't be taking him in the top 15 against this year's draft class. The only thing he has more than this year's draft class is two years of development which is valuable but not enough to suddenly think he's a top 5 talent.

I'm not even sure Guenther moves up from his 9th OA spot (and Wyatt Johnston has surpassed him).

I think it's more the top 4-5 of this draft class that's exceptionally strong though so someone who has 2 years of solid development may understandably be more enticing than the 6OA and beyond tier of 2023.

[random-d]

This a flawed comparison because you're comparing a guy that is about to be on his D+3 to first year eligibles. In order to do that you have to normalize the statistics. You either project where this years players will be in the same amount of time or you compare Guenther in his draft year to these guys. Since the latter is by far the easiest method, go with that.

Having said that, there is no way in the burning hellscape I would consider him a top 5 talent in this draft, probably in the early to mid teens. If you want the flawed comparison then yes, he could be top 5 if you like the player but only because he already has a huge lead in development.