My Fox for Byfield/Terry/2023 1st (WILL REP)

[hockeypoolfanatic]

For league in sig. I'm already pretty stacked at D (Dahlin, Hamilton, Josi, Nurse, Chabot, Mountour) so I can afford to lose Fox. My thought process is that while Pavelski is still producing he's 38 and with the injury from the other night I don't feel confident having him as my 3rd RW next season and beyond. Terry is 25 and the Ducks are only going to get better (especially if they nab Bedard who could end up being his linemate). The 1st would be in the 7-10 range. I could nab a potential star or at least very solid prospect as the top 10 all look excellent. Byfield is the main piece I'm after. I inquired about him and the other GM asked who he would have to add for Fox. I told him Terry and the 2023 1st. He replied that it was a steep ask and would think about it. Byfield is going to be an absolute beast and I want to nab him now while the window is still open. I feel like the 3 assets will help me more than Fox considering my D is already solid.

Thoughts? Will rep where possible. Cheers

[hockeypoolfanatic]

Disregard. He just replied saying he's going to pass. Needs a goalie more than Fox.

[senryu]

This would have been terrible for you. The package is nowhere near Fox's value. Being stacked at a position does not mean that you should accept taking much less than market value for an asset. Fox is 25 years old, top 5 in the NHL at his position, and if you did a redraft, he'd likely be in the top 25 picked overall. You should be getting someone of roughly equal value for him, like a Timo Meier, type if you need a winger, not a rebuilding package. Unless the 2023 1st is Bedard, the return is woefully short. While the Ducks may get better, when that time comes, Terry will be on the other side of the aging curve. He may not get appreciably better than he's already shown. Byfield is a terrific prospect, but that's not enough for a superstar like Fox.

[zambronies]

If I were you, I would actively try to sell high on Montour. With Chychrun in town and Sanderson continuing to develop, I may even try to trade Chabot. Fox would not be a Dman I would be trading though.

[hockeypoolfanatic]

Thanks, guys! Appreciate your input. What if it was Keller instead? Would you do Keller/Byfield for Fox?

[Pengwin7]

If this is for your 9F/6D league, do NOT trade Fox for a forward or forwards.
D are too valuable in this set-up.

[hockeypoolfanatic]

Thanks for talking me off the ledge guys. Cheers

[Nylander2.0]

Both deals are awful for you.

[This Guy]

Yeah, neither deal was worth doing for you. You should move Montour, Chabot, Nurse before Fox.

[stevegamer]

I agree that Fox isn't the guy to move. I would move one of Nurse, Chabot, Montour in a deal.

He needs a goalie? Ullmark, Lankinen and one of those D for Byfield & the pick or something else coming back.

[Feenom]

Yeah, neither deal was worth doing for you. You should move Montour, Chabot, Nurse before Fox.

Agree.

[hockeypoolfanatic]

I agree that Fox isn't the guy to move. I would move one of Nurse, Chabot, Montour in a deal.

He needs a goalie? Ullmark, Lankinen and one of those D for Byfield & the pick or something else coming back.

Am I reading this correctly that you would trade Ullmark, Lankinen and Montour/Nurse for Byfield and a 2023 1st? Am I missing something? I wouldn't even move Ullmark alone for Byfield and a 1st. He's a shoe-in for the Vezina, was the 4th ranked G in my league and it would leave me with only two starters. Montour was the top ranked Dman in my league, Nurse the 4th and Lankinen gives me with NSH tandem with Saros for a prospect and a pick? Is it April 1st or something?

[stevegamer]

Am I reading this correctly that you would trade Ullmark, Lankinen and Montour/Nurse for Byfield and a 2023 1st? Am I missing something? I wouldn't even move Ullmark alone for Byfield and a 1st. He's a shoe-in for the Vezina, was the 4th ranked G in my league and it would leave me with only two starters. Montour was the top ranked Dman in my league, Nurse the 4th and Lankinen gives me with NSH tandem with Saros for a prospect and a pick? Is it April 1st or something?

Not reading it wrong, but I did forget about Lankinen giving you the Nashville tandem at the moment.

Ullmark is your #3 starter, and now is the time to cash in on that Vezina. Honestly, if you can get Byfield & the pick for Ullmark, I'd take it. If you can get more, go for it.

[PoolPartyPuljeejarvi]

My advice was going to be try and see if you could make a similar move with Josi instead. I know Josis totals are better and its hard to replace his peripherals but I really do NOT mind the logic here (which i fond tends to get frowned on in these parts) and the reality is that you sometimes have to "lose" a trade to improve your team!

I'm higher on Byfield than most (like you seem to be!) - but as a big man im not sure hell break out as quickly as you're hoping. If you look at Kopitar as a reference he put up 3 seasons under a pog and then sort of plateaued at about a ppg for 3 more before he started posting better seasons (and sometimes worse ones lol!). Granted LAs defensive system did not help and it seems to be opening up but its a good reminder that big men develop slower and don't tend to "pop" the same way as othwr skilled players. Zacha is a good example of this type of development imho although I think Byfield is a couple tiers higher than him- just an example of the development curve being more organic and incremental. I think Barkov is your best (most optimistic comparable) and he went three seasons under a ppg and then like Kopitar sort of plateaued for two more before he finally went nuts- lol! So as the "main piece" coming back you'd have to be ok with 2-3 seasons at a 65ish pace and then 2-3 more where poolies will start to yell you hes reached his ceiling as a ppg player and then if you're lucky he hits one more higher gear- lol! When we gear potential 90 point player we get all excited but with these big guys and their incremental development it takes a bit longer than we think its going to AND you have to check your impulse to move him along the way as the rest of the community does its best to galvanize this sneaking suspicion you have that maybe he really is just a 75ish point lmayer- haha! Its tougher than say a Jack Hughes where your return is pretty immediate and dispels any doubts along the way.

Sooooooo.... I do think its the right type of play. Id try to swap in Josi if thats doable and id acknowledge that there will be growing pains BUT here's my view of it. I think you can pretty much stay competwtive with a team that strong even if you remove one very good dman. Heck you could scour the wire for a valimaki type or trade for a drysdale type and be in pretty good shape in short order. Now on top of that you're adding a very strong goal heavy winger (who probably underachieving this year) at a position you really need it, in three years or so you'll have a barkov/Kopitar type holding down the fort at C (basically for free i might add) and as long as you don't draft another exceptionally big or small guy you'll also have whatever you draft this year- an absolutely stacked draft! Heck maybe its sandin pellika and he brings shades of Fox/Josi anyways!!

You lose this year but not by much with the wing upgrade AND your team is Hella strong so you'll stay competetive in any case. And for that small sacrifice you get one maybe two absolutely elite players back. Thats a yes for me.

I don't have a crystal ball but I think its at least worth considering these offers and if the risk vs reward is THIS good I think you take it. On these boards it feels like any risk or gamble is considered a loss- but unless you're in a league with a bunch of casuals you can't always make those types of moves and still get ahead. Your best bet is to find the best spot to swing for the fences and go for it. This spor- especially if its Josi- is a fantastic spot imho...

In any case i really feel like you're on the right track bud. There's some great advice to move Montour if you can- but if your league is like mine its gonna be hard to get a meaningful return that way. Whatever way you go- i think your logic was sound here and id be careful about writing off this type of idea. Good job mang...

[Bubba55]

It seems pretty clear to me that if you want to try and get something done with this other GM you need to meet his stated requirement and that's a Goalie. It certainly looks like you are in a position to move a goalie with your 3 starters and some nice options on your farm, particularly Schmid who will be in the NHL next year and could very well steal the starting job in Jersey, and to a lesser degree Lankinen. I am unclear if this is a Dyantsy (keep all) or a partial keeper league? If it is a partial keeper I am much more inclined to move a goalie to improve my forwards, your D is just fine.