Carlsson or Michkov?

[TeamRamrod]

Points only, keeper league

Michkov is the sexy pick, but Carlsson is the safe pick.

Who do you spend a 4th overall on?

[loppantorkel]

Points only, keeper league

Michkov is the sexy pick, but Carlsson is the safe pick.

Who do you spend a 4th overall on?

Is this a trick question?
Bedard #1
Fantilli #2
??? #3
Your posed Michkov/Carlsson #4?

If you've got #4 overall, I think you'll end up with whomever is left out of these four. If you have the third pick - I wouldn't know between Carlsson or Michkov, not beyond the safe vs sexy, but delayed pick...

[DangerCat]

Michkov 100%. He’s going to be a wait but he’s the best player not named Bedard in this draft.

[Feenom]

Michkov should be worth the wait.

[Palefa]

Mitchkov is what, 3 years away from the NHL?

In this case give me the 50-60pts/year def for that window and leave the wait time to someone else.

[senryu]

Mitchkov is what, 3 years away from the NHL?

In this case give me the 50-60pts/year def for that window and leave the wait time to someone else.

We can all but guarantee that Carlsson or whoever might be picked after Bedard and Fantilli will spend at least one full season in a Euro league, the AHL, junior or some combination thereof. If Michkov does come over after 3 years, he will assuredly go straight to the NHL. Thus, the difference in NHL production is, at best, 2 years. Probably shorter with that, I'd bet that Carlsson would have another year in Sweden, and then come over for some North American acclimation before getting up to the NHL.

[metaldude26]

I think the questions with Michkov start at #2 vs. Fantilli. I think most would opt for Fantilli because of his VERY strong freshman year in college and the certainty of having an immediate player. I think there's less value in that certainty in a points-only format but only because it's no guarantee Fantilli's scoring immediately pops even if he makes the immediate jump. On the flip side, Michkov is very likely going to pop immediately upon arrival so you could bet on the pure upside.

Assuming it's Bedard and Fantilli at 1-2 then I definitely go Michkov at #3. Carlsson looks like a safe bet, but not as safe as Fantilli and far less track record suggesting he'll be a big scorer. Again, this being points only there's no faceoffs or hits, or any other categorical advantage that might steer you towards potentially quicker returns with Carlsson. Heavy lean towards the upside on Michkov.

No one has ever really scored like Michkov at his age in the leagues he's scored like this in so I suppose he could be some weird outlier flop but the age adjusted pNHLe comps for Michkov are star level players or better. A veritable can't miss and he looks the part too. The only concern is that you have to wait for his arrival. Otherwise, there'd be real debates about Michkov vs. Bedard.

[This Guy]

It'll be interesting to see if any opinions change once the draft is complete, depending on which team drafts them. I'd like a center to go to CBJ, and any player going to CHI will have poor results for years due to the lack of talent around them.

Michkov could slide due to the Russian factor, his defensive game, and the wait. Most GMs won't be around to reap the reward of drafting him. Cam Robinson thought he'd drop to 8. In fantasy though the top four is pretty set with Bedard, Carlsson, Fantilli, and Michkov. if you have 4th OA you won't have a dilemma, just pick whoever is left and be happy with your choice.

I'd rather wait on Michkov than on a player who is drafted by CHI and will burn their rookie eligibility with no results to show for it.

[Palefa]

We can all but guarantee that Carlsson or whoever might be picked after Bedard and Fantilli will spend at least one full season in a Euro league, the AHL, junior or some combination thereof. If Michkov does come over after 3 years, he will assuredly go straight to the NHL. Thus, the difference in NHL production is, at best, 2 years. Probably shorter with that, I'd bet that Carlsson would have another year in Sweden, and then come over for some North American acclimation before getting up to the NHL.

Lol, my bad, I tought it was John Carlson from Washington

[Sawch]

4th overall is the easiest decision this draft season, other than Bedard at #1. You take whoever is left between Michkov, Fantilli and Carlsson. This first tough decision this season will be for whoever is drafting 5th overall.

[metaldude26]

It'll be interesting to see if any opinions change once the draft is complete, depending on which team drafts them. I'd like a center to go to CBJ, and any player going to CHI will have poor results for years due to the lack of talent around them.

Michkov could slide due to the Russian factor, his defensive game, and the wait. Most GMs won't be around to reap the reward of drafting him. Cam Robinson thought he'd drop to 8. In fantasy though the top four is pretty set with Bedard, Carlsson, Fantilli, and Michkov. if you have 4th OA you won't have a dilemma, just pick whoever is left and be happy with your choice.

I'd rather wait on Michkov than on a player who is drafted by CHI and will burn their rookie eligibility with no results to show for it.

I'm so much more fascinated to see how NHL teams play this situation than I am fantasy GMs.

Looking at the teams in the lottery, how many can feel confident in getting Michkov over?

Your big markets like Montreal, Chicago and Philadelphia probably wouldn't be concerned. Washington definitely isn't going to be with Ovechkin in tow (even with the Kuznetsov trade request). Steve Yzerman gives no ****s in Detroit. Doug Armstrong took Tarasenko in St. Louis back in 2010, which could play out similarly to Michkov here. I don't think Jarmo Kekelainen has any fear in Columbus, but may have a need for a "win-now" piece given their big spending. But would any of Anaheim, San Jose or Arizona want to take that swing with newer GMs and non-traditional markets? Would Vancouver ownership even allow a pick for a player with that kind of wait time?

The thing working against Michkov falling is the lack of elite defensemen who typically get drafted really high. The centermen are there to be overdrafted but not so much the big swings on D.

[DangerCat]

I'm so much more fascinated to see how NHL teams play this situation than I am fantasy GMs.

Looking at the teams in the lottery, how many can feel confident in getting Michkov over?

Your big markets like Montreal, Chicago and Philadelphia probably wouldn't be concerned. Washington definitely isn't going to be with Ovechkin in tow (even with the Kuznetsov trade request). Steve Yzerman gives no ****s in Detroit. Doug Armstrong took Tarasenko in St. Louis back in 2010, which could play out similarly to Michkov here. I don't think Jarmo Kekelainen has any fear in Columbus, but may have a need for a "win-now" piece given their big spending. But would any of Anaheim, San Jose or Arizona want to take that swing with newer GMs and non-traditional markets? Would Vancouver ownership even allow a pick for a player with that kind of wait time?

The thing working against Michkov falling is the lack of elite defensemen who typically get drafted really high. The centermen are there to be overdrafted but not so much the big swings on D.

I am, too, very interested in seeing how far, if indeed he does, Michkov falls. I echo what you said earlier…no draft eligible has scored like Michkov in the KHL at his age. I believe he could be as Good as Bedard. certainly if I was picking first (in real life) Bedard would still be my guy, however if I’m a GM and there’s a potential generational talent available at #2 I don’t care about any Russian factor I’m taking him. Easy for me to say because I don’t have millions of fans or a multi-million dollar job on the line, but always take the best player that high. Fantilli has had an incredible college year so I wouldn’t blame a GM for taking him at 2 but I personally am still taking Michkov. Exciting to see what happens.

Also if Michkov unthinkably falls to 8 as some analysts have said do you think that changes his draft outlook in full keeper/dynasty leagues?

[metaldude26]

Also if Michkov unthinkably falls to 8 as some analysts have said do you think that changes his draft outlook in full keeper/dynasty leagues?

Any kind of fall could impact things for fantasy owners, but I don't think it'll be that much. Hard to see people passing on him at #4 at the latest given the upside. There could be some league-specific circumstances that cause a further drop in fantasy leagues but not much. Really, anything other than going #2 in fantasy leagues is a slide. Some things to consider: What's the draft order? Do certain prospects land on teams that have super fans in draft position in your league? Does your league have specific scoring quirks that could favour early impacts or positional ability like FOW?

[DangerCat]

Any kind of fall could impact things for fantasy owners, but I don't think it'll be that much. Hard to see people passing on him at #4 at the latest given the upside. There could be some league-specific circumstances that cause a further drop in fantasy leagues but not much. Really, anything other than going #2 in fantasy leagues is a slide. Some things to consider: What's the draft order? Do certain prospects land on teams that have super fans in draft position in your league? Does your league have specific scoring quirks that could favour early impacts or positional ability like FOW?

Yeah I have to agree. The guys in our league don’t always go by the draft either. I got Luke Hughes at 9th in that draft year. Anyone with a high ceiling gets nabbed quick (not sure how Hughes dropped) so I doubt he will be around past 4. Being in the playoffs the best pick I can attain is 5 (out of 24 teams) so there’s hope he would drop in fantasy owner eyes but like you said I truly doubt it. I might look to trade up depending on the cost and where I finish but unlikely to #1 judging by what I’ve seen the cost would be on these forums haha! So possibly could get Michkov if the price isn’t exorbitant.

[zambronies]

Bedard will go #1, Fantilli likely #2, at #4 you take whichever one is left.