2nd OA or Byfield

[This Guy]

Hi everyone,

I'm currently 2nd last in one of my leagues and obviously will grab Bedard if I get the 1st OA pick. However, I'm really torn on who to choose if I don't get the 1st pick. For years I've been wanting Michkov, even with the wait. I think he's got game-breaking talent. Fantilli and Carlsson have done really well this year too, and it's a coin-flip for me on those two guys. Also, as a minus on Michkov I remember how hyped Savoie was early before falling in his draft year (as I expect Michkov to do, but for the Russian factor not lack of talent). So I have no clue who to pick at 2nd between those three.

If it's not 1st OA, what about trading the pick for Byfield? I have not proposed anything, I wanted to see what the Forum thinks value-wise. The OGM who has Byfield is in the mushy middle in our league. I'd like to start competing next year but definitely won't win it as the top three teams are *stacked. But my window will open and I've got a really young team with a lot of potential.

I'm looking at it purely from a talent comparison.

[zambronies]

I would personally keep the 2nd OA

[Axeman33]

Here's the thing with draft picks. People like shiny new things and draft picks hold more perceived value than someone who's already been drafted, even if they are highly touted like Byfield. People drool over the potential aspect of current picks. It's comical sometimes.

I think, if you were serious about trading the pick for someone like Byfield, you could get more than just Byfield for the pick based on the excitement of the pick.

[loppantorkel]

I wouldn't trade away the 2nd overall for Byfield. I'm buying into the hype.

[Dover]

Yeah 2nd overall >> Byfield. Personally, i would keep that pick for Michkov. I think the wait will be worth it !

[Bubba55]

The hype surrounding this draft is going to be something else. So, you take advantage of that. I'm with Axe here, if you want to move the pick you do so for a stupid return which means Byfield + as an example. I'd reach out to your league and let them know that your pick is available if the price is right but be clear, your asking price will be considerable. See what happens.

[Pengwin7]

Well... do some research on Byfield.
Kings commentators are really impressed with him - I own him in one league and think he looks absolutely great.
He's got 21pts in 46gp this year... but 20 are even-strength (just 1ppp - which is coaching call, not lack of production).
He's been playing top line LW with Kopitar for a while and LA has been doing very well in games generally.

Personally, I think Byfield is going to be an 80pt player in NHL in two years time. (60pts next year, 80 after that).

I agree w/Axe - I think you can make a play to get Byfield++ for the #2 pick.
And in two years time... I really think that could be the better side.

If you don't mind a slow rebuild: Michkov is probably the pick.

[Belexus75]

Michkov is signed for i think 3 more years in KHL..by the time he comes to NA (if he ever does), half of current fantasy leagues will fold...

Fantilli would be my pick with the 2nd, maybe even LC.

Having said that, Byfield would probably go right up there once again if this was his draft year, he is big but and so is most of this class up top, and that usually takes longer time to develop but he already had few years. Outside of Bedard i rather have QB myself and as few others said, based on the hype (not quality of a player) you can get more than just Byfield.

[senryu]

Michkov is a better scoring prospect than Byfield in a vacuum. But Byfield's deal all along was that (1) he was very young in his draft class, several months behind many of the other 1st rounders and (2) being a big guy, he would take longer to develop. With Michkov being unavailable for the next 3 years, you get the time to have Byfield develop to the player he was hoped to be. Your league rewards more than just points and nothing I've read about Michkov leads me to believe he's going to be a hits type of guy. I'd stick with Byfield, or if you're still keen on dealing for Michkov, get more than Byfield on the ruse that his development has failed.

[LuigiC173]

Byfield is in the NHL here and now and shows promise. Keep Quinton but do not expect anything prolific until he is say 24/25 at his size, think Tage Thompson. But when it comes it will be an avalanche, he is set to be dominant.

[This Guy]

It's interesting that the consensus is for 2OA = Byfield +. I'd have thought it would be closer.

Hopefully I'll land Bedard and won't have to make the choice 😊
It does show that it's going to be a very interesting draft!

[FFleming5]

My thoughts are that 2OA is worth Byfield+ due to the hype associated with this draft class especially and people being a little tired of waiting on Byfield's breakout/draft hype. I am on board with Byfield being an 80+ point player eventually but still needing some time to develop - he could hit 60 next year and 80 the next but due to extra time with a player his size, could be a bit slower in getting there too (you never know). Byfield has had a couple years of development and is way closer to breakout over anyone who is drafted at 2OA who will likely not be breaking out until draft year +3 or +4 years.

My reading on Michkov is that many Russian players have advised, and don't see any need for Russian players to immediately go to the NHL where they will get stuck in the AHL or run the risk of being mismanaged, getting bad minutes, matchups and stuck in a press box. Many Russians are advising young players to just continue developing in Russia - they point to Panarin and Kaprizov as comparisons and examples of why not to make the immediate jump leaving family and fame in Russia. This just means that Michkov is on this same 3 year timeline before he would have any impact as other players at the top of the draft (whereas, Fantilli, and Carlsson will have some impact). But look at Lafreniere, Kakko, Byfield, Dach etc. - fantasy managers often sour on these players waiting for the hype - this won't happen with Michkov as the hype will remain. So at least he'll probably keep his draft value over some of the other players who will not be peforming to the over hyped expectations.

Returning to Byfield, the trade is worth it because you can one skip the development time and grab a guy playing significant minutes on a top line, waiting for PP opportunity and prime for a breakout. Also, you can likely get more than just Byfield since everyone is hyped for the draft with Bedard being at the top. I think I'd try to make the move for Byfield+ if you end up with the 2OA position for these reasons. In actuality, I think Byfield is actually worth more than the 2OA - but this is a market inefficiency that can be used as advantage.

[Luffy D Monkey]

Byfield+ or just pick. If you get Fantilli I think you're pretty happy