[TRADE] Horvat to the Islanders

[kovalchuk17]

Sad to see Bo go, I thought he was going to be a Canuck for life also.

The trade wasnt a home run for either side so it was probably fair-ish for both teams. While it looks like the Canucks will get a #13-16 pick in a loaded draft, im game for maximum chaos so im rooting for the Islanders to get #12 for this season and absolutely shit the bed next season so the canucks have a chance at #1 overall with the unprotected 2024 pick haha

[Pengwin7]

I'm surprised by how much internet opinion/criticism there is on this trade.

It's the Claude Giroux trade v2.
You've got a guy that has a young family and has probably quietly told the team he won't be re-signing.
The entire GM-NHL-world knows it... there's a vibe/tell.
You try to get what you can.
The player is a captain, a solid guy, so he says the right things and is willing* to be dealt. (*n/a Horvat)

As for the teams:
The trading team is looking to get a 1st+Prospect(Tippett for PHI).
The acquiring team is looking to make a playoff run with, perhaps, they best roster they've had and will have going forward.


For the Isles here - look "long-term".
They are very aging team with a ton of UFA contracts.
The most key contract is Sorokin UFA-2024. Eligible for extension when June 1, 2023 rolls in.
If the Isles don't show some "TRY" with their roster - Sorokin's gonna bolt for a different lockerroom/org.

Worst case, it all falls apart for NYI and they escape the purgatory that is "middle-of-the-conference" standings.
(PHI had the opportunity to be at bottom of East if they would've just not hired Torts for an extra 5 grind-it-out wins.)

For VAN, it's a solid return. I don't think they could get more.
It's like PHI... everybody (at least, I see it) knows the player will sign close to his wife's family.
Horvat will be in DET or TOR or OTT or BUF (outside shot: CBJ), IMO.
Him & wife are Southern Ontario folk - and he'll get the family close to.


Good trade, win-win, both sides.
I see no issues with it.

NYI now needs to make a solid run to the Metro #3 spot, line-up first playoff with NJ (who may not be battle-ready, despite their points).
If NYI can get through NJ, why can't they beat CAR... and they match up veteran-well with BOS, especially defensively and on the dot now.
Sorokin is a guy that can ride them far.

I honestly think NYI can make a cup run with Horvat.
I'd like to see them add a D5/D6... and think they'll try if the can get up the standings to Metro-3rd by late-Feb.

(And, as other say, if they can't - they'll just move Horvat again.)

[saucelife90]

NYI are only cup ready if Sorokin pulls a '17 MAF and has 4 shutouts in the playoffs almost single-handedly carries them to the conference/cup finals. That roster does not compete vs the Boston's/Tampa's of the eastern conference.

[tweetdrivr]

The Isles are not making the playoffs.

[2014olympicgold]

hockey reference has the NYI at a 15.6% probability to make the playoffs. They need a lot of luck to make it.

[rufio.85]

NYI are only cup ready if Sorokin pulls a '17 MAF and has 4 shutouts in the playoffs almost single-handedly carries them to the conference/cup finals. That roster does not compete vs the Boston's/Tampa's of the eastern conference.

I agree with this. Barry Trotz is not behind the bench anymore.

Horvat remains a 2C imo, albeit an excellent one. I don't think he pushes the Islanders high enough to compete with the elite teams in the conference.

[tweetdrivr]

I don’t see this trade as a win win at all. It’s not a lose lose quite - more of a meh meh. Both teams traded for something they didn’t really need (except the draft pick annd Horvat should have garnered more than a couple shoulder shrugs and a middle 1st) and there doesn’t feel like there’s any clear vision here on either side. Best outcome for NYI is to flip Horvat again for something better.

[Pengwin7]

NYI are only cup ready if Sorokin pulls a '17 MAF and has 4 shutouts in the playoffs almost single-handedly carries them to the conference/cup finals. That roster does not compete vs the Boston's/Tampa's of the eastern conference.

People could've said the same thing about the St.Louis Blues, this time (late-Jan), in 2019.
When the Blues acquired ROR in summer of 2018... I don't think anybody was thinking "Oh, here's a move that could make the Blues a (serious) playoff contender".
STL had replaced Paul Stastny with Tyler Bozak, but the centers just weren't set-up in comfortable spots.
All STL had at the time was B.Schenn (as an overwhelmed C1), Tyler Bozak (as over-his-head C2)... and Robert Thomas was still getting his feet wet.
And then Binnington came out of nowhere.


What I expect the Isles will experiment with is pushing Barzal (C1) to a (C/W) split with Horvat. Cizikas won't have to take those draws any more.
Horvat will take most draws, but Barzal can take a LH-draw or a tossed-out draw - which is super helpful on PP1.
This has worked incredibly well for some teams over the years, like Zetterberg-Datsyuk (DET), Benn-Seguin (DAL), and Pavelski-Hintz (DAL)

NYI, I think, would probably like to re-form their 4th line with MC^2 (Martin-Cizikas-Clutterbuck), but they've been having CC take draws on line 1 with Barzal.


To look deeper into analytics:
NYI's 2nd line has been humming over past 10gp. Lee-Nelson-Palmieri have a 70-41 corsi split. Very nice.
NYI's 1st line has been humming over past 10gp. Beauvillier-Barzal-Cizikas have a 49-29 corsi split -which is great.
NYI's 4th line is holding ground... when they roll MC2. 24-24 split.
But their 3rd lineof Parise-JGP-Holmstrom has been getting worked over... at 20-48 split... and so they need some tweaking.
We'll see what they do with Josh Bailey - who still has game.
https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/...L&situation=EV

I think most people see the Isles as an unsexy team - without chance to jump past PIT, WAS, and NYR.

They come out of ASG-break with FIVE very winnable games: @PHI, SEA, VAN, @MON, OTT (especially after taking a VAN player).
Then a tough 7gp schedule with PIT, BOS, PIT, WPG, LA, WPG, MIN.
https://www.espn.com/nhl/team/schedu...york-islanders

We'll know after those 12gp whether the team is for real or not.
If they roll 4wins/5... I think they'll be likely in the Metro #4 spot, hopefully with NYR not too far up at Metro #3 after Valentine's Day (Feb.15).

It'll be interesting to re-visit the Metro standings on Feb.15th.

[rataylor22]

Outliers are outliers for a reason.

[2014olympicgold]

Vancouver also never shopped the NYI offer around. Prolly from fear it would make the trade fall apart like the JT Miller incident at the draft.

[Fighting_Emu]

Two questions and a comment...

1- How much we think Horvat is signing for?

2- I'm still a little fuzzy why Van HAD to trade him? If he signs for a reasonable deal like 8 million ish its hard to think he's not an ideal number two behind EP. Thats assuming he would've taken a reasonable offer...

3- I really feel like Beauvillier is being underrated here. I heard one analyst compare him to like having an impact similar to when the Canucks added Chris higgins?? Now I'm not saying he will set the world on fire but he has shown hes got it in him to create at quite a heady pace in short bursts. Its not a stretch to say there's a very real chance he thrives in a system that isn't so defensively stingy. Barzal who I have no issue calling a 90ish point player was basically a 60 point one in NY lol!! It wouldn't blink if he hits a 60 point pace this year and if he does whats his upside going into next? On a rebuilding team??? I think he could be a great add for fantasy and I think his inclusion is being understated irl too...

[Axeman33]

Two questions and a comment...

1- How much we think Horvat is signing for?

2- I'm still a little fuzzy why Van HAD to trade him? If he signs for a reasonable deal like 8 million ish its hard to think he's not an ideal number two behind EP. Thats assuming he would've taken a reasonable offer...

3- I really feel like Beauvillier is being underrated here. I heard one analyst compare him to like having an impact similar to when the Canucks added Chris higgins?? Now I'm not saying he will set the world on fire but he has shown hes got it in him to create at quite a heady pace in short bursts. Its not a stretch to say there's a very real chance he thrives in a system that isn't so defensively stingy. Barzal who I have no issue calling a 90ish point player was basically a 60 point one in NY lol!! It wouldn't blink if he hits a 60 point pace this year and if he does whats his upside going into next? On a rebuilding team??? I think he could be a great add for fantasy and I think his inclusion is being understated irl too...

1. I think he gets around 8x8. Too much IMO.

2. Of course, this is an assumption based on media reports from insiders but VAN didn't want to pay him 8x8 because they don't believe this season is the norm for him. As much as Rutherford and Allvin may seem like bumbling fools, on this I agree with him. Both sides had drawn lines in the sand and neither appeared willing to step outside them. The writing was in the wall that Horvat wanted to get paid based on his career year and Rutherford said no. Classic stalemate and Rutherford wasn't willing to gamble that they could come to an agreement so here we are. Horvat sees himself as a quality 1C and some may agree with him. I personally see him as a mid level 1C or a high level 2C. Is that worth 8x8 (or potentially more)? I don't believe so and I guess neither does the Canucks.

3. You may be right on Beauvillier but I think he was in the trade simply as a cap blend more than Vancouver's belief in him. Raty and the 1st were the key pieces in the deal for Rutherford and Allvin.

[audiopile]

Two questions and a comment...

1- How much we think Horvat is signing for?

2- I'm still a little fuzzy why Van HAD to trade him? If he signs for a reasonable deal like 8 million ish its hard to think he's not an ideal number two behind EP. Thats assuming he would've taken a reasonable offer...

3- I really feel like Beauvillier is being underrated here. I heard one analyst compare him to like having an impact similar to when the Canucks added Chris higgins?? Now I'm not saying he will set the world on fire but he has shown hes got it in him to create at quite a heady pace in short bursts. Its not a stretch to say there's a very real chance he thrives in a system that isn't so defensively stingy. Barzal who I have no issue calling a 90ish point player was basically a 60 point one in NY lol!! It wouldn't blink if he hits a 60 point pace this year and if he does whats his upside going into next? On a rebuilding team??? I think he could be a great add for fantasy and I think his inclusion is being understated irl too...

1 - 7x7.75

2 - They think JT is a centre, and the also have EP at C and Horvat isnt a 3C so they moved him. That simple.
I dont agree that JT is a centre, but I dont work there. They chose JT over Horvat at this years entry draft when they didnt trade JT to NYI (same deal likely was on the table that they did for Horvat). They then confirmed that was going to be the direction when they chose to sign JT before Bo in the summer. The result? An overpaid, unprofessional, miscast hothead Miller stays, and a pissed off overperforming gentle Bo goes. And the Canucks Trainwreck lives on for another terrible contract term.

3 - Beauvillier is streaky. He is also interchangeable with several other wingers on the Van roster (Pearson, Boeser, Garland can all go) so it allows them to have more players on the trade table. Thats all. I think he will pop in the short term, the chains will be off so they can see what he does. They should flip him for a pick.

2% chance Bo resigns with Van in the summer!

[Feenom]

hockey reference has the NYI at a 15.6% probability to make the playoffs. They need a lot of luck to make it.

Sorokin (who is the Isles best player) has to be incredible for that to happen. In order for the Isles to get into the playoffs they need to score more goals than they let in. Pretty easy especially if you have a world class goalie right? No. So they went out and got a guy who is doing what they need. Will it be enough? Is Lou done tinkering? I don’t know but I do like this move right now for NYI.

Horvat will help that PP and put some of the focus of other teams off Barzal. Personally I hope they make another move for a quality goal scoring winger (Patty Kane?) and make the playoffs. Give Sorokin a shot at doing damage in the post season.

[LuigiC173]

at the very least the Isles are going to be routinely posting video game numbers in the faceoff dot with him, JPG, Nelson, Cizikas down the middle, that is just downright gross. Can teams just defer possession and save the trouble ha.