Fitting Kuzmenko

[Tiramisu]

I saw the bump of an old Kuzmenko thread, but THIS is the thread to bump.

Let me say that I'm not doing this to say I'm some sort of genius who's always right. Just wait until I post the results of my fearless forecasts this season, where let's just say I had some big misses. And when Matthews was struggling early I predicted it would continue. I'm wrong in a big way plenty of times. And I own it. But never in my entire time as a writer did I "put my money where my mouth is" more so than regarding Kuzmenko, so I do feel somewhat vindicated now. In case people don't have it in front of them, this is what I said in my Fearless Forecast article in October.

1) Andrei Kuzmenko will score at a 50-point or lower pace

No question 2022-23 was a superb first season for Kuzmenko, who, but for his age making him ineligible, likely would've won the Calder after posting 74 points in 81 games. He had superb chemistry with Elias Pettersson and signed a deal that should keep him a Canuck at least this season and next. And I'm not here to deny the success Kuzmenko had last season, nor to suggest he isn't talented. I will say though that in my now 11 years of writing about fantasy hockey, I've never seen as many metrics suggesting a player's performance was unsustainably benefitted. Skeptical? See if you still are after you read on.

In 2022-23, Kuzmenko joined a list of 204 other wingers dating back to 2000-01 to score 35+ goals in a season. The next lowest SOG total for any of them was 178 (versus his 148), and a mere four others had fewer than 200.

Kuzmenko had 14 PPGs on just 37 PPSOG. Again going back to 2000-01, there were a total of 219 other instances of forwards potting 14+ PPGs in a season, with Kuzmenko's PPSOG total ranking him second worst, and there being only 11 other instances where a player had under 50 PPSOG.

Of the forwards who potted 25+ goals for 2022-23, only three had a total number of posts and crossbars hit that was less than 10% of their goal total, with Kuzmenko (39 goals, 3 posts, zero crossbars) one of them and the only player with a lower percentage being Dylan Cozens (31, 2, 0).

The last three forwards who reached double digits in tip in goals (Chris Kreider with 17 in 2021-22; David Backes with 11 in 2014-15; Ryan Callahan with ten in 2010-11) all saw scoring rate decreases of at least eight points the following season, with Kreider's dropping by 22. Who led the entire NHL in tip in goals for the 2022-23 season? Kuzmenko, with 14.

There was a total of 84 forwards who tallied more assists than Kuzmenko's 35 last season. How many had a secondary assist rate as high as his 60%? Try zero. In fact, just one (Nick Schmaltz, who had only one more assist and a 55.6% secondary assist rate) was above 55% and just one more (Tomas Hertl – 41 assists, 53.7%) was above the 51.5% mark.

As if all that wasn't enough, the last two instances of a player as old or older than Kuzmenko scoring 30+ goals as a first year player came in 1992-93 by Dmitri Kvartalnov, who proceeded to drop to 19 points in 39 games the following season, which happened to be his last in the NHL, and Nikolai Borschevsky, who had a decent second season in posting 35 points in 45 games but was out of the NHL after 1995-96. While admittedly this is not objective evidence along the same lines as the other data, it's most certainly not good company in which to find oneself.

If I'm a Kuzmenko owner in a keeper, I'm trying to move him ASAP. And although most reading this will have already drafted in one-year leagues, you might want to look into the possibility of trading him there too, as while it might raise some eyebrows it also would be better than being stuck with him if in fact he regresses as much as this data suggests he will.

Lmao- so when he gets 70 next year we can bump this again? Imagine patting yourself that hard on the back for something that boiled down to Tocchet changing his mind on the guy???

None of those trends came i nto play because he was buried on the 4th line, benched and then traded to a team that owed him even less than the Canucks did. What a stupendously self congratulatory take... but sure.. congratulations?

[Belexus75]

Lmao- so when he gets 70 next year we can bump this again? Imagine patting yourself that hard on the back for something that boiled down to Tocchet changing his mind on the guy???

None of those trends came i nto play because he was buried on the 4th line, benched and then traded to a team that owed him even less than the Canucks did. What a stupendously self congratulatory take... but sure.. congratulations?

And the ostrich takes the head out of the sand once again!!!

Hi Emu!!!

[RizzeeDizzee]

Lmao- so when he gets 70 next year we can bump this again? Imagine patting yourself that hard on the back for something that boiled down to Tocchet changing his mind on the guy???

None of those trends came i nto play because he was buried on the 4th line, benched and then traded to a team that owed him even less than the Canucks did. What a stupendously self congratulatory take... but sure.. congratulations?

To this I only say "those who justify don't convince". He sure as heck didn't start on the 4th line, on either team. And my fearless forecast was for 2023-24 specifically, although if I had to predict things yet to come, I'd say they don't look good.

[RizzeeDizzee]

And the ostrich takes the head out of the sand once again!!!

Hi Emu!!!

And you can darn well bet he'd have resurrected this thread to rub my nose in it had I been wrong. In fact, he tried to do that after about the ten game mark, in the other thread that was bumped. Maybe a bit premature in hindsight?

[Belexus75]

we all have our opinions that are wrong and right nothing wrong with that...also Kuzmenko has been very disappointed. I did not expect goal scoring form last year but i did expect more balanced 60 points...now some think he is done in north America. I still think there is a useful NHL player and 10-15 Forward for good fantasy teams but we will see....he did get Hoglander treatment this year which did not help but at same point you dont get bench if you do things right...

[RizzeeDizzee]

we all have our opinions that are wrong and right nothing wrong with that...also Kuzmenko has been very disappointed. I did not expect goal scoring form last year but i did expect more balanced 60 points...now some think he is done in north America. I still think there is a useful NHL player and 10-15 Forward for good fantasy teams but we will see....he did get Hoglander treatment this year which did not help but at same point you dont get bench if you do things right...

Fair points and well stated. Time will tell. I don't wish failure upon him at all by the way.

[Tiramisu]

And you can darn well bet he'd have resurrected this thread to rub my nose in it had I been wrong. In fact, he tried to do that after about the ten game mark, in the other thread that was bumped. Maybe a bit premature in hindsight?

And? One guy is banned and you're a prominent writer here-you want a win- there's your win- lmao! But trying to spin it as something you called is just... disengenuous. Did he get to the 4th line because his shooting percentage went back to its median like you said? Did he get there before he finished the season with an IPP of exactly 70 which is your own stated benchmark? If you actually read this post- and I did so others don't have on't have to- im not sure this is the victory lap you think it is- all.im saying....

[random-d]

And? One guy is banned and you're a prominent writer here-you want a win- there's your win- lmao! But trying to spin it as something you called is just... disengenuous. Did he get to the 4th line because his shooting percentage went back to its median like you said? Did he get there before he finished the season with an IPP of exactly 70 which is your own stated benchmark? If you actually read this post- and I did so others don't have on't have to- im not sure this is the victory lap you think it is- all.im saying....

Everything that RD stated in the post you quoted above is based on statistical evidence and as far as I can tell you're now saying that because he also had other issues that caused him to get less opportunity that that somehow supersedes all the other reasons and therefore those aren't also valid concerns... You're basically pointing at a fire next to a bunch of other fires and saying "this is the one that's the problem, not those, because this fire is going to burn up all the stuff the others would have burned". How in the world of sound rational thought does that make any sense? Either way you're left with a fire that ends up leaving you with nothing.

[GinFizz]

This post reminds me of this classic scene.....

[random-d]

Emu is an archetype of fantasy fan that only solicits other people's thoughts as an opportunity to promote their own.

[Tiramisu]

I sold kuzmenko on this advice and it did me well. I also got kuzmenko exceedingly cheap because of the campaign of terror this guy went on over kuzmenko- lol! All I did was gain here- im not angry- im.not defending the ghost of an emu.

Im saying its disengenuous to to say this is what you called. Because it is. You keep setting fire anolgies- im sure someone agrees with you...

[DangerCat]

Anyone who seen his shooting percentage last year knew he would regress I mean it’s common sense. Perhaps not to the point he did this year, but nonetheless that he would. I was never a big believer in Kuzmemko nor did I jump on the bandwagon. I believed going forward he would be a 50-60 point guy with 25 goals. I think RD hit the prediction with a bullseye so I’m not sure about the hostility. Kuzmemko was never going to be a 100 point guy. He came back down to earth, perhaps harder than I thought this season and the majority of people knew it!

[Tiramisu]

So if wer all agreeing that hyper fixating on short sample sizes with this player is the right way to approach things...


Does that mean hes a superstar again?

9 in his last 5- 4 multi point efforts in the span- more importantly back up to 18+ minutes with 3 or more on the pp- and yes hes on whatever calgary is calling their topline.

After reading this whole thing again- and I dont recommend doing that- i'm just going to say it- I believe the argument in this thread MIGHT have either created or strengthened the bias for this writer against Kuzmenko. If you're researching a player with a heavy bias its not actually shocking that you'd find "more red flags than I've ever seen in a decade of writing". It might also explain the 3 page essay in the guide dedicated to one player.

Unpopular opinion: This is an above average offensive player whose just NOT the superstar he appeared to be playing with EP who seemingly improves every player he plays with. His shooting percentage was always going to comedown but as long as hes given a fair shake wherever he signs next I can see a projectable range of 60-70 with upside in the right situation. Thats sort of what I always figured him for- not a superstar but not the chopped liver hes been made out to be either.

If a 65 point player with decent year to year upside helps you I wouldn't be in a rush to ship him for anything you can get...

[Tiramisu]

Or dont- lol! I'm not even trying to win an argument at this point- Im just in a very competetive league and I can't afford to pass on assets in that range because its trendy. Ill admit there have been some compelling points made but there has also been a lot of digital ink spent on "data" that just isn't imho. My honest take is that when you get a player like this or a fabian Brunnstrom or a Vadim Shupachev- some GMs will avoid them because they want to.mitigate their risk and some people will be intrigued. Usually the "playing it safe crowd" wims- its an easy call to make. But sometimes you get a dadonov or a panarin- and my whole point is that for me- its worth doing due diligence and giving them a fair shake.

Sorry if my above comment about the writers establishing sounds adversarial, condescending or rude. Its just an oopinion...

[Belexus75]

Or dont- lol! I'm not even trying to win an argument at this point- Im just in a very competetive league and I can't afford to pass on assets in that range because its trendy. Ill admit there have been some compelling points made but there has also been a lot of digital ink spent on "data" that just isn't imho. My honest take is that when you get a player like this or a fabian Brunnstrom or a Vadim Shupachev- some GMs will avoid them because they want to.mitigate their risk and some people will be intrigued. Usually the "playing it safe crowd" wims- its an easy call to make. But sometimes you get a dadonov or a panarin- and my whole point is that for me- its worth doing due diligence and giving them a fair shake.

Sorry if my above comment about the writers establishing sounds adversarial, condescending or rude. Its just an oopinion...

are you trying to get another account bannned? If so, you are on a right track…