Fitting Kuzmenko

[RizzeeDizzee]

Kuzmenko is talented, but as a Canucks fan that watches the games you can tell EP is carrying and elevating him.
Half his goals are tap-ins into wide open nets.

I think without EP, Kuz on his own is probably a 55-60 pt player

You're not kidding - Kuzmenko leads the league with 8 tip in goals already. The skater in third place has four. Last season's leader for tip ins was Kreider far and away with 17, and he's taken a step back. In fact, if you look at the two most recent instances of a player having 10+ tip-ins for a season before Kreider, they were David Backes in 2014-15 and Ryan Callahan in 2010-11. In 2014-15 Backes scored at a 59 point pace, while the following season he was down to a 47 point pace, while for Callahan he went from a 66 point pace to a 58 point pace. Determinative when it comes to Kuzmenko? No. Concerning? I'd say yes.

[Fighting_Emu]

Look at them historically - I guarantee you the majority of them have been at or above 70% one or more prior seasons if they aren't now. And let me guess that when you were gathering this data you found far and away more examples of 70% among top scorers than not? I wave the white flag. I'm in the middle of a bout with COVID and don't have the time or energy to deal with this anymore.

Dude I really didn't!! I've been respectful the while time but this is getting annoying. Its from thus site the one you write for. I used frozen tools and just posted all the guys under 70. The majority of the superstars in the league were under 70 and there was some serious trash above 70. You say you're not cherry picking and then accuse me of it. I'll just copy and paste tommorow- this is getting dumb.

I'm gonna be honest I actually felt it had some merit at the beginning of this and maybe it does but its absolutely not the thing you should be making a final decision on or you would have passed on easily over half the best producers in the league this year. Also you literally just said they might be above 70 at other seasons and thats presumptive why you're not worried. Again... why is kuzmenko not allowed this same consideration? Hes almost there already AND were in his first year- he could be one of those guys whose name is on the list next season- he'll maybe later this season!

IF his ipp isn't where you want it then maybe I buy that but im sorry saying that he's likely a bust cause he has under 70 is just bunk. I see you've doubled down now with the tip in info?? Maybe he never pans out- im in the camp that thinks he very much can- but if I were writing for the site I'd prefer to have much stronger predictive data then a nonsensical ipp argument and some tip in goals? Ask Joe Pavelkaski if tip in goals are justluck- lol!

Bottom line- your advising fantasy players against adding a ppg player at very little investment cost right now- which is fine- your job is NOT to validate my opinion- but thats a very strong stance to take and you're doing it on some very flimsy evidence. The more I ask about the flimsier the argument seems to get? You cited ipp as the issue have you went to frozen tools and looked at the ipp leaders?? Im not lying to you- its your dang metric lol! Some absolute dogs breakfast at the top of that list. Did someone feed you some bad borscht?

Its clear you don't believe in this llayer- again thats fine- thanks for sharing your opinion- but I think you might want to examine how you got there. I truly think you said aside from kaprizov and panarin these khl imports don't pan out and since you're not ready to say hes elite like those two hes probably a bust. Inferring you have more "hidden ipp and Phipps data that supports that is disingenuous imho....

[Fighting_Emu]

https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/...data_length=30

There it is. Keep in mind thats the data YOUVE been quoting- not me- i had very little knowledge or interest in IPP or a 70 point threshold hold. The top of that list is more like a whose who of role players and anomalies. Greer Ruzicka Gourd Holmberg ???

When this started I thought you had a point. Ftr I don't anymore. When of the most infuriating things fantasy enthusiasts do imho is pretend they've got some inside scoop. You don't. I'm sorry of that sounds harsh but this players ipl and the 70 point cutoff you alluded to is not only a non factor. It will active make your roster worse if you use it as empirical evidence by which you run your team. That list speaks for itself.

Next time if you don't like a player- its fair to just say- in my experience KHL players don't adjust well. See how easy that was? mplying you've got some advanced stat insight and then attacking my research (again of the data set YOU referenced) when it doesn't line up is just a crappy way to run your opinions. Admittwdly im not an expert but at every level I just checked the data you supplied and at every turn it was baseless and wrong...

[Fighting_Emu]

BTW I anxiously await your rebuttal where you cherry pick some of those names and say why that ipp means anything (and if course it doesn't went most of the leagues superstars arw under that threshhold) or after the fact you find a new argument to justify why hes bad (tip is is pretty weak- you sure you want to go with that?)

For anyone reader this does NOT mean Kuzmenko WILL be a star- I admit that I don't know. I look at his scoring in bunches, the eye test (hes always in the actuon) and his ppg status and I think he can be. I'm not claiming that he will be based on his SAAAAGOT (Sot attempts against above average goalies on tuesday) that he will be....

[TheBends]

BTW I anxiously await your rebuttal where you cherry pick some of those names and say why that ipp means anything (and if course it doesn't went most of the leagues superstars arw under that threshhold) or after the fact you find a new argument to justify why hes bad (tip is is pretty weak- you sure you want to go with that?)

For anyone reader this does NOT mean Kuzmenko WILL be a star- I admit that I don't know. I look at his scoring in bunches, the eye test (hes always in the actuon) and his ppg status and I think he can be. I'm not claiming that he will be based on his SAAAAGOT (Sot attempts against above average goalies on tuesday) that he will be....

Find a hobby. You're on here way too much and you clearly need to take a break. I've never seen someone post so much bloated messages

[Fighting_Emu]

Find a hobby. You're on here way too much and you clearly need to take a break. I've never seen someone post so much bloated messages

Thanks! Ill definitely do that- thanks for the constructive feedback! I mean whoi tries to learn about the things they enjoy anyways- what nerve I have!! I think theres a reason youve gotten ahead by keeping things to aminimum and probably something you should stick to. Have a nice quiet day without too much strenuos reading or thinking involved!!

[Fighting_Emu]

Find a hobby. You're on here way too much and you clearly need to take a break. I've never seen someone post so much bloated messages

Definitely not RDs duplicate account- lmbo!!

Hey I started respectfuilly- youre the one who cited evidence and then accused me of cherry picking for literally reading the data you suggested! How about be better at your hobby?

[Fighting_Emu]

The opther issue about my *bloated posts* (ouch that really hurt my last feeling!)- is that theyre usually a reesponse to try and help someone else. When I ask a question and I get four guys repeating a one word answer it tells me nothing. Its really a pet poeeve- all Ive learned is what the popular opinion is in the echo chamber right that second. You may be too young to remember but there were some absolutely fantastic posters here back in the day (some still come around) who actually shared how they arrived at their conclusion- and its a real treat.

Its funny how neither you nor RD have nothing to say about the list though. Ive got no vested interest iun IPP being a deciusive stat, in Kuzmenko being a star- none of it! I just got upset after a several day back and forth concluded in the suggestion that I misrepresented the data... the data I just literally read because it was provided by RD! I stayed respectful right up until the point I was accused of creatibely interpretting the numbers- bruh- I luiterally said I dont know much about IPP LMAO!! Its shocking how often earnest dialogue is derailed by sh*t like this and its just dumb. Now were talking about my bloated posts- where Im not even addressing my own team issues but trying to help others. Thats a boring conversation- if RD has a counter argument Id love to hear it! Cause Ill tell you what Im directly involved in this altercation AND evenm Im bored by it- hahahahah!!

I submit your team is better for it anmd you lerarn a thing or two about applying critical thinking along the way. If you want your one woird echo chamber answers- theyre still here- in fact..

You can block my posts bruh! In fact why dont you do that so the rest of us who actually enjoy the hobby and discussing it can engage in a dialogue about it! My *bloated posts* are generally the length they are so people can make the best decision possibvle about their team even if they dont agree with the exact player I give in any particulkar answer OR if Ive missed something about their league setup or format. The downside ? Yea I guess it takes an extra 12 seconds to read but tbh Im not sure Im ready to apologize for that lmao!!

Heres the TLDR version for the sake of your ham,ster attention span: You can just block me. Critical thinkiong is not for everybody but if youre not a fan your best bet is to quietly not include yourself in the diuscussion- not to get worked upo about word count. Like its a forum.... a forum!!!

And yes Im aware I made a bloated message to address my bloated messages- Im patting my back for that fact at present

[RizzeeDizzee]

To review, your only retort to my objective evidence about tip in goals is that Joe Pavelski gets a lot of them? Who's got selective/flimsy data now?

Also, I made it clear the 70% IPP applies to forwards, yet you don't even filter for that, resulting in your list having several defensemen in it? Sloppy.

And as for your IPP list, how many of them haven't had 70%+ IPPs in the majority of their seasons, or, as noted, early on or in recent seasons? Again - I said that IPP is indicative of a player's trajectory as much as his current results.

Right now, the top 30 scorers include 16 whose IPP is lower than 70%. Of the 16 whose IPPs are currently lower than 70%:
-Leon Draisaitl - over 70% basically his entire career and barely below it now
-Erik Karlsson - A defenseman, and I said this pertained to forwards only
-Mikko Rantanen - 67.2% to 73.1% in four of his past five seasons, and bound to have a lower IPP due to playing with a points magnet like MacKinnon
-Auston Matthews - Above 70% every previous season
-Roope Hintz - Above 70% in two of his prior three seasons
-Nathan MacKinnon - Above 70% in each of his prior five seasons
-RNH - He's scoring a lot because his team is scoring a lot
-EP - I maintain he's not a star, but I'll give you this one
-Steven Stamkos - above 70% in all but one of his previous seasons
-Zach Hyman - same as RNH
-Mika Zibanejad - up and down on IPP, but above 70% twice, although not for most seasons, so I'll give you this one too
-Rasmus Dahlin - A defenseman
-Jeff Skinner - several 70%+ seasons in his early career
-William Nylander - 70% or above in two of his past four seasons
-Josh Morrissey - A defenseman
-Brady Tkachuk - I'll give you him too

Congrats on disproving your point more than proving it.

[Fighting_Emu]

I'll try to be diplomatic, because I'm an ambassador of the site, but yikes that's a lot of text and a lot of vitriol.

Also, your only retort to my objective evidence about tip in goals is that Joe Pavelski gets a lot of them? Who's got selective/flimsy data now?

As for your IPP list, how many of them haven't had 70%+ IPPs in the majority of their seasons? Again - I said that IPP is indicative of a player's trajectory as much as his current results.

Right now, the top 30 scorers include 16 whose IPP is lower than 70%. In some cases, they're up there because of significant ice time and/or PP scoring. Of the 16 whose IPPs are currently lower than 70%:
-Leon Draisaitl - over 70% basically his entire career and barely below it now
-Erik Karlsson - A defenseman, and I said this pertained to forwards only
-Mikko Rantanen - 67.2% to 73.1% in four of his past five seasons, and bound to have a lower IPP due to playing with a points magnet like MacKinnon
-Auston Matthews - Above 70% every previous season
-Roope Hintz - Above 70% in two of his prior three seasons
-Nathan MacKinnon - Above 70% in each of his prior five seasons
-RNH - He's scoring a lot because his team is scoring a lot
-EP - I maintain he's not a star, but I'll give you this one
-Steven Stamkos - above 70% in all but one of his previous seasons
-Zach Hyman - same as RNH
-Mika Zibanejad - up and down on IPP, but above 70% twice, although not for most seasons, so I'll give you this one too
-Rasmus Dahlin - A defenseman
-Jeff Skinner - several 70%+ seasons in his early career
-William Nylander - 70% or above in two of his past four seasons
-Josh Morrissey - A defenseman
-Brady Tkachuk - I'll give you him too

Congrats on disproving your point more than proving it.

Its not vitriol its frustration because at every turn there are holes- its not adding up.

Again all I have to do is post the list- frozen tools every year for the last 5- there is no correlation between star player and an ipp!!!

Even now you just took a bunch of names and said well usually they have 70. Do I really need to post the whole list every year??? You said I picked selective data and thats literally all your doing. Pavelski and tip ins? Fine I don't know much about tip ins outside of it doesn't look like a great indicator on ots own. You said all these names but every year - without cherry picking i promise because I've looked i can find just as many stars above 70 as below! Usually more like this year!!

For real it doesn't add up and you're still standing by it? Do I need to copy and paste the data? Or was the whole argument based on people not looking at the research that you're citing?? It blows my mind you posted that list.

To anyone not named rizee dizz- please do yourselves a favor.

1- Go to frozen tools.
2- Go to stats and you'll have to select more. You'll get a lot of options here but you're looking for IPP
3- Change the year as required and scroll through. Just look at the data- lol!!

I'm not spinning anything or lresenting flimsy facts. I'm using your stat and there is not even a hint of correlation. I've said many times I don't know if kuzmenko will be a star or not- i don't need to win the argument. You're being disingenuous and km.sorry but I take offense at that.

Ipp simy is not a predictor of success on its own. By your own metric and at every turn instead of addressing the point you're spinning it on me to try and make it seem like I'm misrepresenting the data. What a shifty way to run an argument!

This is my last post. The data is there if anyone cares to look at it. I'm not spinning anything and if im frustrated its because I resent you directing your attack at my representation of the facts when you ran out of feasible arguments. Thats juvenile and if you want to cry wolf now maybe get your facts straight next time instead of insisting im presenting your stats wrong. All I said was "hey there's more stars under 70 ipp then there are over- just like every year"

[Fighting_Emu]

Ziba MacKinnon zegras debrincat hall Suzuki petterson- do you know what that is? Its literally one page of guys from last year under 70. Meier Marchand Stamkos buchnevich
Karlsson aho thomas- thats one more page- they're in entries of 30.

Do I need to go back another year? How about a year before that? There is no meaningful correlation and if there is its certainly not at 70...

[Fighting_Emu]

Last point of my *flimsy data* - you keep repeating it speaks to trajectory (bullshit) but again by YOUR OWN logic why on gods green earth would kuzme ko be exempt at one season?? One season where hes close to your made up magic number??

- you've tried to pin the flaw on my interpretation of your data
- you've tried to switch focus to tip in data which i even admitted was not my area of expertise or even especially relevant to the issue at hand
- you've tried shaming me as spitting vitriol and flimsy arguments now

Aside from the fact that you've proven you're an infuriating debater whose more concerned with winning the argument or switching focus than addressing the issue at hand... are you going to address the fact that superstars appear on both sides of 70 every year as far back as you can go? I mean outside of attacking me or switching the focus- do you have a rebuttal for that?

[Fighting_Emu]

This is just dumb- I realize now tou took the names and tried to anecdote them all. The point is there are tons of names every year. Anyone e with half a brain will see that.

Every year.

There are as many star players above 70 ipp as there are below it.

It changes every year.

In fa t the player in question is close to the stupid benchmark you set in his first and only season and you're using it as data that he... won't succeed?

If you think that it has any meaningful weight I can't help you. It doesn't.

I feel bad for the rest of the people you try to bully into this absolutely ridiculous perspective...

[RizzeeDizzee]

"This is my last post".....proceeds to post three more times. I couldn't even have made that up.

[Fighting_Emu]

"This is my last post".....proceeds to post three more times. I couldn't even have made that up.

No I don't suppose you could - not especially bright...

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Ipp bruh- i posted after cause ipp

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This is what happens when logic runs out kids- you end up like Mr. Ipp over here