Fitting Kuzmenko

[RizzeeDizzee]

I'm not saying you're wrong- i enjoy your articles and generally find the logic sound...

But...

I don't like the player comparisons for obvious reasons- we have no idea what was going on tith thise players. He has so passed so many determination factors already- hes conquered the language barrier, he's established chemistry with a superstar, he's survived incinsistency- the bottom line is this player is unique id like to judge him on his own merits. If we just say all KHL players are doomed to fail because most did we will nevwr find the outliers and thats what interests me.

So you're saying IPP is the issue? Admittedly this is not my strong suit but I see him having a slightly worse PP than EP a tad worse than a guy like Horvath whose on a tear- he has a substantially higher PpIPP than EP tbh. In each case were talking like two percentile.. At 65ish he seems right in the money spot with room to grow from there no? As a comparison Panarin floated right around there at 75 and then 71 in his first two seasons before flaring up to 80%.

If you don't believe in the player thats fine but unless I'm missing something his ipp is fine. EPs is 2 percentile different and were not talking about him playing himself out of the league. I'll reiterate borchevsky et all don't provide a lot of sway for me- Canucks management has put a lot of resources into making this work over and above the usual agent calls. I think they see something and more importantly they seem like they are willing to invest in his future and give at least some time for his talent, chemistry and production to grow along side that of other key offensive cogs on the team.

Respectfully- I can't really find a lot of merit in these two points. This isn't about being stubborn on a player either- im willing to sell if thats the right play but other pundits are calling him a future star and the two factors here don't seem to add a lot of weight to the argument- again respectfully...

Not just IPP, but being a pending UFA. I'm afraid he's upping the effort level to get a huge deal, and then will phone it in and be out of the NHL like these other age 26+ "rookies" who were shot out of a cannon. Panarin was two years younger and playing on a two year RFA deal.

[Fighting_Emu]

Not just IPP, but being a pending UFA. I'm afraid he's upping the effort level to get a huge deal, and then will phone it in and be out of the NHL like these other age 26+ "rookies" who were shot out of a cannon. Panarin was two years younger and playing on a two year RFA deal.

Ok so I'll give that a maybe- again thats more in the realm of hunch than evidence but a fair enough point. Can you explain the ipp issue? Hes five points off of panarin on his first couple years hes equal to Petterson right now with a better ppipp- so what are you saying there? Im actually just curious..

[Fighting_Emu]

Hunches are fine for the record but I think it might be safer to say what you just said than trying to say some underlying metrics back that if they don't. You can say historically the comparisons are not great and there should be a concern hes playing for a payday but until you can shed some light on what this ipp issue is- then this is 100% a hunch unless you actually know Andrei kuzmenko and somehow now his motivation. Again not saying you're even wrong but saying the numbers back that suspicion and then not explaining how is a little sketchy...

[RizzeeDizzee]

I've done columns for years that have focused on IPP, and from that I have discerned that players with IPPs of 70% or higher are those who are more likely to be very good to great. Why is this? Because IPP measures ones ability to factor into scoring, rather than being a passenger carried by others. An overall IPP of 63.2% like Kuzmenko has is decent, but not what I'd expect to see from someone who has sustained greatness in his future. Plus, his IPP on the PP is only 50%, and if he's not scoring on that many PP chance he could easily lose that spot given the other options the Canucks have. Look at wingers who've been closer to or above 70% overall IPP over the last few seasons, like JRob, Pastrnak, Kaprizov, Kucherov, Fiala, or earlier in their career before they became stars, like Matthew Tkachuk and Jake Guentzel. It's a great barometer, from where I sit. Kuzmenko's isn't terrible, but it's lower than I'd want to see from someone in his shoes.

[Belexus75]

And IPP in first 30 games will be the same as it is after 300 games right? ....im assuming Shane Wright is probably below 10% so he must be complete bust already...im also sure Fiala was way up there in his first few years....when he completely sucked...at this moment Kuzmenko's ppg are higher than Panarins were in full first season...we will see how it ends...

[Fighting_Emu]

I've done columns for years that have focused on IPP, and from that I have discerned that players with IPPs of 70% or higher are those who are more likely to be very good to great. Why is this? Because IPP measures ones ability to factor into scoring, rather than being a passenger carried by others. An overall IPP of 63.2% like Kuzmenko has is decent, but not what I'd expect to see from someone who has sustained greatness in his future. Plus, his IPP on the PP is only 50%, and if he's not scoring on that many PP chance he could easily lose that spot given the other options the Canucks have. Look at wingers who've been closer to or above 70% overall IPP over the last few seasons, like JRob, Pastrnak, Kaprizov, Kucherov, Fiala, or earlier in their career before they became stars, like Matthew Tkachuk and Jake Guentzel. It's a great barometer, from where I sit. Kuzmenko's isn't terrible, but it's lower than I'd want to see from someone in his shoes.

I mean the team has to be a factor for ipp and if we largely consider EP a future star why do we us the meteic they're are essentially tied in to say kuzmenko isn't?

I haven't done it but I bet if I go back and dig there will be lots of outliers right? How does kuzmenko stack up against those imports that busted out? He compares favorably to oanarin although admittedly panarin was over 70 at 75 and 71 respectively. He basically sounds like he's right in the wheel house. 70 is probably a great benchmark just like I like 200 sogs per game but if a guys at 180 I at least recognize a)they can improve there and b) were kind of splitting hairs at this point- you can hit star level production at 180 sogs over a season. I like to see 200+, nay I LOVE to see it- but im not gonna write a guy off if he's at 180 as a rookie...

[RizzeeDizzee]

Fiala's IPPs in his career, in chronological order: 100%, 69.6%, 62.3%, 73.6%, 80.6%, 78.4%, 78.7%, 79.5%.

A forward who just shows up should get 60% IPP, as usually there are three points to be divided among 5 players on the ice, three of whom are forwards.

[RizzeeDizzee]

I mean the team has to be a factor for ipp and if we largely consider EP a future star why do we us the meteic they're are essentially tied in to say kuzmenko isn't?

I haven't done it but I bet if I go back and dig there will be lots of outliers right? How does kuzmenko stack up against those imports that busted out? He compares favorably to oanarin although admittedly panarin was over 70 at 75 and 71 respectively. He basically sounds like he's right in the wheel house. 70 is probably a great benchmark just like I like 200 sogs per game but if a guys at 180 I at least recognize a)they can improve there and b) were kind of splitting hairs at this point- you can hit star level production at 180 sogs over a season. I like to see 200+, nay I LOVE to see it- but im not gonna write a guy off if he's at 180 as a rookie...

The team is not a factor for IPP - only the extent to which one takes the ice with someone else who has a super high IPP. That's why Jake Guentzel is so good - he has a 70%+ IPP despite playing with Crosby, whose IPPs have always been high. What IPP represents is, as I noted, one's ability to drive scoring. If you see it from a young player before they break out, it is a great sign for them. And if you see if from someone like Fiala, you can bank on him eventually finding a way to put together a superb season, which he finally did.

[Fighting_Emu]

Ok again- it seems like a good metric. I have to do my own digging but I just cannot help but feel like these examples are just a little bit cherry picked to prove a point though and again I ask...

Then why are so many players who are in the 60ish range considered future stars but in this one case its cited as an example against that???

Ep = Elias petterson- there's literally a 2 percent difference between them and kuz is better by a substantial amount on the pp. Why do we consider one a future superstar and one a guy playing himself out of the league?

I still think team and linemates have a small effect on ipp- what if you play with a puck hog? Or a guy with an abysmal passing percentage? But thats not the crux of my argument- ill accept im wrong here if you can address the ep issue. By this afternoon I feel like I'm gonna have 15 names of supposed superstars who are in this rate.

Bottom line it seems like a good.indicator of talent but not the final arbiter of it...

[RizzeeDizzee]

Ok again- it seems like a good metric. I have to do my own digging but I just cannot help but feel like these examples are just a little bit cherry picked to prove a point though and again I ask...

Then why are so many players who are in the 60ish range considered future stars but in this one case its cited as an example against that???

Ep = Elias petterson- there's literally a 2 percent difference between them and kuz is better by a substantial amount on the pp. Why do we consider one a future superstar and one a guy playing himself out of the league?

I still think team and linemates have a small effect on ipp- what if you play with a puck hog? Or a guy with an abysmal passing percentage? But thats not the crux of my argument- ill accept im wrong here if you can address the ep issue. By this afternoon I feel like I'm gonna have 15 names of supposed superstars who are in this rate.

Bottom line it seems like a good.indicator of talent but not the final arbiter of it...

Another "Fiala-like" player is Jesper Bratt, whose IPPs have been 70%+ every season except his rookie campaign. And voila, he's broken out.

Since you mention EP, I would not be investing significantly in him, due to his IPP. And trust me - I didn't cherry pick. It's a reliable barometer.

And look at Gaudreau's IPP this year - it's 86.1%. He's just as good as last season, just not surrounded with top tier talent. Clayton Keller is in a similar boat.

Poke around on Frozen Tools - it's a great resource in this area.

[Fighting_Emu]

Another "Fiala-like" player is Jesper Bratt, whose IPPs have been 70%+ every season except his rookie campaign. And voila, he's broken out.

Since you mention EP, I would not be investing significantly in him, due to his IPP. And trust me - I didn't cherry pick. It's a reliable barometer.

And look at Gaudreau's IPP this year - it's 86.1%. He's just as good as last season, just not surrounded with top tier talent. Clayton Keller is in a similar boat.

Poke around on Frozen Tools - it's a great resource in this area.

I said it seems like a good metric but again I find it hard to believe I won't find any consistent stars outside of that range if I look...

[Fighting_Emu]

I said it seems like a good metric but again I find it hard to believe I won't find any consistent stars outside of that range if I look...

So:

Stutzle aho necas draisaitl laine terry Kopitar ziba macavoy jarvis Marchand Suzuki cozens ep zegras point Horvath hintz kadri- the list goes on and on - all under 70 all right around kuzmenko.

You got defensive and said "I don't cherry oick" but all I suggested was if I did some digging would I find guys who are successful outside of this range and of course I did- tons!!

I ask again- if we believe in most of these guys why don't we believe in kuzmenko??

I'm just gonna say it- its a bad reason to write him off. Ipp seems like a great indicator of talent - especially when a guys production is a little erratic and you're trying to find out if there's more to the story. But arbitrarily pointing at guys under 70 and deciding they're not going to succeed is an exercise in futility. Many do. They just do. If you don't like kuzmenko for other reasons so be it. If you wanna say something like "I wish he had that ipp I look for when a players scoring is erratic" i can even see that. But to say he's under 70- like this list of 30 other superstars so he won't succeed even though they did is... well its not smart

[Fighting_Emu]

Stamkos fox matthews huberdeau and barkov are all under kuzy in ipp...

[RizzeeDizzee]

So:

Stutzle aho necas draisaitl laine terry Kopitar ziba macavoy jarvis Marchand Suzuki cozens ep zegras point Horvath hintz kadri- the list goes on and on - all under 70 all right around kuzmenko.

You got defensive and said "I don't cherry oick" but all I suggested was if I did some digging would I find guys who are successful outside of this range and of course I did- tons!!

I ask again- if we believe in most of these guys why don't we believe in kuzmenko??

I'm just gonna say it- its a bad reason to write him off. Ipp seems like a great indicator of talent - especially when a guys production is a little erratic and you're trying to find out if there's more to the story. But arbitrarily pointing at guys under 70 and deciding they're not going to succeed is an exercise in futility. Many do. They just do. If you don't like kuzmenko for other reasons so be it. If you wanna say something like "I wish he had that ipp I look for when a players scoring is erratic" i can even see that. But to say he's under 70- like this list of 30 other superstars so he won't succeed even though they did is... well its not smart

Look at them historically - I guarantee you the majority of them have been at or above 70% one or more prior seasons if they aren't now. And let me guess that when you were gathering this data you found far and away more examples of 70% among top scorers than not? I wave the white flag. I'm in the middle of a bout with COVID and don't have the time or energy to deal with this anymore.

[jcairns]

Kuzmenko is talented, but as a Canucks fan that watches the games you can tell EP is carrying and elevating him.
Half his goals are tap-ins into wide open nets.

I think without EP, Kuz on his own is probably a 55-60 pt player