Mike Matheson Career Year a-coming...

[ross10019]

So I drafted Matheson very late in our re-draft this year, and not surprising as he is totally flying under the radar.

Despite his resurgence last year after the trade to the Penguins, people's views are still a bit tainted by his underwhelming performance with the Panthers for several years after being so highly touted (went 23rd overall in 2012). People are also ignoring not only his regular season performance, but what he did in the Rangers series.

And of course, as most of you do, I used my "home team" advantage in drafting him - in my case the reports coming out of pre-season, all of the back and forth after he was traded to the Habs this summer, the fact that Kent Hughes WAS HIS AGENT and so knows more than most what Matheson is all about, the StLouis factor, etc.

Simply put, I think Matheson is about to put up a monster year. The stars are aligning:

- He is in his hometown of Montreal. Now very frequently that would be a death knell, given the immense pressure that comes with that (see Leblanc, Louis, and Drouin, Jonathan...), but in this case it is perfect timing as the expectations from the Habs fan base are SUPER LOW, and there is an openness to this rebuild that will take lots of pressure off of every player, especially a local boy like Matheson. There is also the question of his demeanor - this is a pretty even keel guy by all accounts, doesn't get too high or too low although early in his career clearly his confidence was shattered - he is not a flashy guy, and widely regarded as a solid teammate, including based on what we're hearing in pre-season from his teammates.

- He is the undisputed no 1 dman on this squad, and possibly no 1 PP mainstay - only Wideman in the way of that, and my feeling is that either way he'll see primo PP minutes.

- This means 25+ minutes per night, when his max was 21 or so early on in his Panthers years, and only 18-19 the last few years. On the PP he has received virtually no PP time, including last year with the Pens, and now he'll be seeing at least 1:30/game if not more.

- Matheson is clearly an offense-first kind of dman, scores goals and puts up SOG, but his Blocks numbers have left something to be desired recently. But as far as blocks go, if you go past the past 3 seasons where he put up only 1 block/game or so, in his early years when he was getting 21-22 mins instead of 18-19, he put up about 1.5+ those 3 years. Bodes well. As far as hits go, he put up 97 in 74 last year which I think is a sign of him maturing, after posting (for banger's leagues) very mediocre numbers throughout his career.

The playoff series versus the Rangers gave us a sneak peek. He played over 25 minutes a night, and in 7 games put up 6 points and 17 SOG. He also laid out 17 hits, for those in banger leagues, which translates to a gaudy 200 or so over a full season. Leveraging his 1:30 of PP time, he put up 2 PPPs. And it's not just a stats analysis - I attended 3 of the 4 Rangers v Pens games last year and saw it first-hand - his skating was a sight to behold, took the reins offensively and made things happen while taking care of things adequately in his own end, and all this with Letang healthy and in the lineup throughout (so it wasn't opportunity due to injury).

So now he goes to the Habs, and is guaranteed similar ice time as in that playoff series. On the downside, some will be skeptical that he can now go from being a 18-19 minute guy to a 25 minute guy without it wearing him down, etc., especially on a very weak team which is going to be facing the gauntlet of offensive powerhouse squads like Tampa, FLA, Toronto, even Ottawa. Sure, that's a possibility, but he's now 28, no longer a kid, and seems ready to face the challenge. He's also surrounded by excellent support in StLouis and Hughes.

And as far as his team goes, for sure Habs will be a bottom-8, if not bottom-4, team this year. But all the damage will come from a raw and inexperienced D corps getting eaten alive and not having Price back there to save their bacon especially with Edmundson out indefinitely. Offensively, they'll put up some totals with their pretty solid top 9 coupled with Matheson back on the point, and will surprise some folks, particularly on the PP - I'm not saying they'll be top half of the league, but they don't have to be for Matheson to put up career point totals as a result.

And we did get a glimpse of what's to come. During the pre-season he was BY FAR the best Hab to hit the ice - not just best Dman. His terrific skating came to the fore, just elite level skating, and it translated directly to scoring chances left and right.

So what's the forecast? To be sure, his plus minus will be abominable, just no getting around that. But everything else?

My prediction:

- 78 games, will average 24:30/night with 1:45 PP
- 12G & 34 A for 46 Pts
- -28 (yuch!)
- 188 SOG
- 16 PPPs
- 105 Hits
- 115 Blks

Welcome your thoughts!

[Belexus75]

Way too much to read but I did look at predictions… I think you are about 10 points heavy and should cut goals in half imo.

[PatyOFurniture]

nice write up, I've got my eye on him if Addison doesn't work out

[ross10019]

Way too much to read but I did look at predictions… I think you are about 10 points heavy and should cut goals in half imo.

Well if you think that maybe you should read my reasoning and reconsider! LOL

Matheson has always been the type of dman who can put up goals, given his skating among other attributes - even his early years in FLA he was putting up 8-12 goal paces.

And if you look at the numbers, just increased TOI/PP TOI alone will justify in my opinion a 30% or so increase. When you extrapolate from his traditional 30 pts that means almost 40.

To be sure my forecast is very optimistic, Dobber has him closer to your numbers, but even he has him pegged for 10 goals in 74.

We shall see!

[loppantorkel]

My prediction: 66 games. Averaging 23:40 min/night. He'll put up good numbers, but he'll exit a game in February with a mysterious lower body injury, leaving his fantasy owners hanging, while Montreal gears up for that final Bedard spurt.

[Pengwin7]

Definitely a career-year coming for Matheson, but I think it can be simply broken down in two parts:


Part 1: PPP. Matheson typically has only logged 1-4ppp per year. He had 6ppa with Florida one year (Ekblad was probably injured), so he hasn't gotten chance there. He IS Montreal's best PP option and any PP1 D-man on an NHL team can put up 20ppp over 82gp.
Part 2: TOI. Matheson has put up 25-30esp per 82gp pace in his last three seasons at 18min/gp. He should eat a lot of minutes, and play 22-24 min/gp. If his TOI increase, so should his points. An extra 2min of ESTOI is a 10% increase on ESP... so 30-35esp is possible.

20ppp + 30-35esp could put Matheson in the 50-55pt range as long as he can hold PP1 and play 22-24 min/gp.
Its pure opportunity, so long as he doesn't trip over his own skatelaces!

[ross10019]

My prediction: 66 games. Averaging 23:40 min/night. He'll put up good numbers, but he'll exit a game in February with a mysterious lower body injury, leaving his fantasy owners hanging, while Montreal gears up for that final Bedard spurt.

LOL i hear you bud, there’s definitely some exasperation with former Matheson owners there, and he hasn’t been the most durable. And yes would be a silver lining for Habs in our chase for a high pick in 2023.

- - - Updated - - -

Definitely a career-year coming for Matheson, but I think it can be simply broken down in two parts:


Part 1: PPP. Matheson typically has only logged 1-4ppp per year. He had 6ppa with Florida one year (Ekblad was probably injured), so he hasn't gotten chance there. He IS Montreal's best PP option and any PP1 D-man on an NHL team can put up 20ppp over 82gp.
Part 2: TOI. Matheson has put up 25-30esp per 82gp pace in his last three seasons at 18min/gp. He should eat a lot of minutes, and play 22-24 min/gp. If his TOI increase, so should his points. An extra 2min of ESTOI is a 10% increase on ESP... so 30-35esp is possible.

20ppp + 30-35esp could put Matheson in the 50-55pt range as long as he can hold PP1 and play 22-24 min/gp.
Its pure opportunity, so long as he doesn't trip over his own skatelaces!

Yup I knew you’d weigh in Peng. Thank you!

[LuigiC173]

he was my last pick in twelve team draft so I hope you're right!

[Axeman33]

He's got the opportunity for a career year but as mentioned, it's all based on him basically being the closest thing to a top pairing Dman. Career year for him doesn't necessarily mean a monster year. I had to go back to the 2015/16 season to find the last Habs Dman to reach the 50pt marker and that was PK Subban. I'm not sure this team has enough peripheral offense around Matheson to boost him anywhere near the 50pt mark.

Last season in Pittsburgh was his best offensive season in the NHL with 31pts. Yes, he should better that, but I'm not expecting a lot more than that in Montreal.

[Belexus75]

He's got the opportunity for a career year but as mentioned, it's all based on him basically being the closest thing to a top pairing Dman. Career year for him doesn't necessarily mean a monster year. I had to go back to the 2015/16 season to find the last Habs Dman to reach the 50pt marker and that was PK Subban. I'm not sure this team has enough peripheral offense around Matheson to boost him anywhere near the 50pt mark.

Last season in Pittsburgh was his best offensive season in the NHL with 31pts. Yes, he should better that, but I'm not expecting a lot more than that in Montreal.

yeah… I think this team be lucky to have 3 guys hit 50 and it won’t be D

[ross10019]

He's got the opportunity for a career year but as mentioned, it's all based on him basically being the closest thing to a top pairing Dman. Career year for him doesn't necessarily mean a monster year. I had to go back to the 2015/16 season to find the last Habs Dman to reach the 50pt marker and that was PK Subban. I'm not sure this team has enough peripheral offense around Matheson to boost him anywhere near the 50pt mark.

Last season in Pittsburgh was his best offensive season in the NHL with 31pts. Yes, he should better that, but I'm not expecting a lot more than that in Montreal.

Yeah this is where I differ a bit with you and others. The Habs will suck big time this year, that's a guarantee - but I don't think they'll be a piss-poor team offensively. I actually think they have some firepower and if StLouis can get the powerplay humming I think they can put up reasonably decent goal totals. Not top 10 in the league or anything but say 20-24. To me that's enough to make a bet on a few 50-60 pt guys and, in the right circumstances, a 40-45 pt dman.

And I think this has been Montreal's plan in a sense - "tank" by having weak goaltending coupled with a bottom of the league D corps, but keep things exciting for the fans (and keep young studs like Caufield/Suzuki motivated) by making the offense a run and gun thing. And on that basis there will be lots of emphasis on being hounds on the puck, generating penalties, and starting to put together the makings of a threatening PP. So you'll see lots of 5-3 and 6-4 type games. And if that happens, Matheson will benefit.

Or maybe I'm completely wrong - Dobber has them scoring 228 for 28th in the league, after having scored 221 last year. Just with the full season of StLouis hockey, plus the reinforcements (Dach, Monahan, Dadonov), I think they should be closer to 250 and good for 20th or so.

And on that note, it isn't exactly rare to see a bad offensive team with a 50-pt Dman - look at Ghost last year, 51 pts despite the Coyotes scoring the least goals in the NHL with 207.

We'll see I guess.

[Pengwin7]

And on that note, it isn't exactly rare to see a bad offensive team with a 50-pt Dman - look at Ghost last year, 51 pts despite the Coyotes scoring the least goals in the NHL with 207.
We'll see I guess.

Ghost is perfect comparison.
32esp + 19ppp, bad team. 51pts.

Yeah - and Matheson doesn't even have a Chychrun to eat his minutes.

It's more about TOI for the PP1 D-man.
And I agree, MON's top 6F is better than Arizona's.

MON >> ARI, IMO... but the tough Eastern Conference is going to be brutal on the young Montreal defense.
Also, any team chasing deficits, which will be MON, will put their offensive D-man out there a lot late... with top forwards... hoping to tie the game up.
MSL is still going to coach the team he has to try to win. It's engrained in the coach & players to want to win & score.

It's a really great offensive situation for Matheson.
(That said, I hope any fantasy GM doesn't have to stomach what could be a -30 to -40 year for Matheson!!!)

[ross10019]

It's a really great offensive situation for Matheson.
(That said, I hope any fantasy GM doesn't have to stomach what could be a -30 to -40 year for Matheson!!!)

Right, well I have Seth Jones, Erik Karlsson, and Jacob Chychrun among my top 4 D, I've already sort of punted on plus minus for this year!!

[Axeman33]

Are we really going to compare Gostisbehere and Matheson as far as offensively gifted Dmen are concerned? Gostisbehere is a terrible Dman but he can produce offensively.

I get it, you're optimistic, but you need to get realistic and curb your enthusiasm. Last year was his best offensive season that I can find online, anywhere as far as total point production goes. He had a couple good years in college if looking at ppg, but as a pro, he has yet to prove he can score.

[stevegamer]

Are we really going to compare Gostisbehere and Matheson as far as offensively gifted Dmen are concerned?

I get it, you're optimistic, but you need to get realistic and curb your enthusiasm. Last year was his best offensive season that I can find online, anywhere as far as total point production goes. He had a couple good years in college if looking at ppg, but as a pro, he has yet to prove he can score.

I agree. I'm in on Matheson, but he's not Ghost. His situation is very similar, though - the Canadiens may have worse goaltending, though.