NHL Mock Draft 2022-2023 - Discussion

[ross10019]

Those are my own projections so I do factor in breakouts as much as I can. That being said, we all have different opinions on who breaks out or won't so that plays a major role here. I wouldn't be shocked to finish last in this league after all. Plus, injuries, which are unpredictable, are such a big factor here that this is clearly all for fun.

Ah I see, I thought you were using Fantrax projections.

Yeah injury risk is the big equalizer, but presumably guys factored in durability when drafting. I wasn’t surprised to see you ranked high, really liked your draft picks. Will be fun to follow the results!

[PenguinHunter]

A typical PenguinHunter Draft - not enough hits and blocked shots to be competitive. And I even talked myself into taking Miller in the second round.

One year I am going to draft more peripherals. Slow Learner! haha

[niconasr]

A typical PenguinHunter Draft - not enough hits and blocked shots to be competitive. And I even talked myself into taking Miller in the second round.

One year I am going to draft more peripherals. Slow Learner! haha

Maybe, but you're clearly (at least according to me!) the leader in offensive categories which is a strong start. With also a great output in shots, you only need your goalies to have a strong year and those hits and blocks totals won't matter as much.

[PenguinHunter]

Maybe, but you're clearly (at least according to me!) the leader in offensive categories which is a strong start. With also a great output in shots, you only need your goalies to have a strong year and those hits and blocks totals won't matter as much.

Yup good point. And finding hits and blocks on waivers is usually easier than making up points and SOG. At least thats what I always tell myself when I am drafting. Of course in this league I can't pick up players to catch up... but in other leagues I can.

[newfcollins]

That would be an interesting trial for next year. Similar to the one goalie thing, could you eschew blocked shots and hits in favorable of everything else and still win?

[niconasr]

Considering we have 14 categories, I think it's definitely in the realm of possibility to punt a couple of categories and win. BS, Hits and PIMs would be the easiest to punt I believe. You could go the one goalie route with a top goalie early and then draft offense all the way through, maybe?

[Invictus]

That would be an interesting trial for next year. Similar to the one goalie thing, could you eschew blocked shots and hits in favorable of everything else and still win?

I don't think that would work out well in a draft this deep.

Yup good point. And finding hits and blocks on waivers is usually easier than making up points and SOG. At least thats what I always tell myself when I am drafting. Of course in this league I can't pick up players to catch up... but in other leagues I can.

Practice to know when to start (or how much) looking for hits/blocks.
Bulk of the point differential is found in the starting rounds so that's where I'm looking to take my big point getters. I can find hitters later with a smaller point differential in later rounds. So guys like Tkachuk are devalued for me. Deeper the draft - even more so.
Typically I aim to get 2nd in every category as any points in a category (except the first) above 2nd place points is wasted stats and can be better utilized in another category. In a competitive league it's really hard to get first in every category (or even 2nd!).

[metaldude26]

5- Metaldude rides the skaters volume stats and quality goalie stats to a 4th place projection. I like his skaters a lot though the projections feel like he's missing a top scorer.

This feels about right. I definitely refused to pick anyone who wasn't contributing in the easily projectables like SOG/Hits/Blocks at the expense of offense. I'm hopeful that by taking a lot of high floor guys, and few major injury concerns that the lack of pure scoring upside is made up for and I can climb a bit. But more than anything I've found that leaning on these categories is an easy path to being in the mix by season's end in my leagues with similar scoring. These are also shallower leagues (8-10 teams) so you can always find empty scoring on the waiver wire (you can find hits or blocks or PIM too, but rarely a good combo of all of them). No waiver wire in this league hurts that strategy.

I struggled in balancing using this draft as pure prep for my house leagues, and purely drafting for this setup. The Shesterkin pick off the top was definitely more of a "for this league" pick, whereas waiting on quality backups like Knight and Varlamov were plays for a shallower setup. I'd have been better off reaching for another starter earlier to pair with Shesterkin to better compete in the goalie volume cats. In a shallower league like my house leagues, I probably don't take Shesterkin that high, and can snipe goalies a lot easier since they aren't as scarce. Not sure this league will be good practice on that front. It should be an indicator of "sleepers" at the position, however. Binnington, is my main target for that this season. If he falls to the 9th or 10th round in a 10-team league that will be awesome value.

Being able to wait on goalies in a shallower setup also helps to acquire scorers who can also do a bit of everything. There was also very little flexibility to wait on underrated multi-cat performers like say Timo Meier. No way he goes in the top 50 in my house leagues.

Ultimately, a fun/challenging process and worthwhile. Too many good managers to sneak players through. I had to "Draft Day" my Gudas pick. But there's no way I'm playing in this sort of league and not having him. He fits my philosophy to a T, and he's a top-50 skater in this setup even without much in the way of scoring.

[Invictus]

Niconasr - I'm curious what the rankings would show if you plug Guentzel's stats in for me instead of Marchands...

Also curious what your projections would show had YOU done this 1 goalie strat. Easiest way to accomplished this is by us just switching goalies picked and you gaining the players I picked in the rounds you picked goalies, then dropping or benching (don't count stats) your lowest skater.
I'm guessing a few - several point drop.

If you're curious/ not busy that is.

[niconasr]

This feels about right. I definitely refused to pick anyone who wasn't contributing in the easily projectables like SOG/Hits/Blocks at the expense of offense. I'm hopeful that by taking a lot of high floor guys, and few major injury concerns that the lack of pure scoring upside is made up for and I can climb a bit. But more than anything I've found that leaning on these categories is an easy path to being in the mix by season's end in my leagues with similar scoring. These are also shallower leagues (8-10 teams) so you can always find empty scoring on the waiver wire (you can find hits or blocks or PIM too, but rarely a good combo of all of them). No waiver wire in this league hurts that strategy.

I struggled in balancing using this draft as pure prep for my house leagues, and purely drafting for this setup. The Shesterkin pick off the top was definitely more of a "for this league" pick, whereas waiting on quality backups like Knight and Varlamov were plays for a shallower setup. I'd have been better off reaching for another starter earlier to pair with Shesterkin to better compete in the goalie volume cats. In a shallower league like my house leagues, I probably don't take Shesterkin that high, and can snipe goalies a lot easier since they aren't as scarce. Not sure this league will be good practice on that front. It should be an indicator of "sleepers" at the position, however. Binnington, is my main target for that this season. If he falls to the 9th or 10th round in a 10-team league that will be awesome value.

Being able to wait on goalies in a shallower setup also helps to acquire scorers who can also do a bit of everything. There was also very little flexibility to wait on underrated multi-cat performers like say Timo Meier. No way he goes in the top 50 in my house leagues.

Ultimately, a fun/challenging process and worthwhile. Too many good managers to sneak players through. I had to "Draft Day" my Gudas pick. But there's no way I'm playing in this sort of league and not having him. He fits my philosophy to a T, and he's a top-50 skater in this setup even without much in the way of scoring.

Thanks for your insights. It was great fun drafting with you on board. Agreed on all counts.

- - - Updated - - -

Niconasr - I'm curious what the rankings would show if you plug Guentzel's stats in for me instead of Marchands...

Also curious what your projections would show had YOU done this 1 goalie strat. Easiest way to accomplished this is by us just switching goalies picked and you gaining the players I picked in the rounds you picked goalies, then dropping or benching (don't count stats) your lowest skater.
I'm guessing a few - several point drop.

If you're curious/ not busy that is.

I'll try and look it up later after work.

[niconasr]

Niconasr - I'm curious what the rankings would show if you plug Guentzel's stats in for me instead of Marchands...

Also curious what your projections would show had YOU done this 1 goalie strat. Easiest way to accomplished this is by us just switching goalies picked and you gaining the players I picked in the rounds you picked goalies, then dropping or benching (don't count stats) your lowest skater.
I'm guessing a few - several point drop.

If you're curious/ not busy that is.

Guentzel over Marchand would've gotten you roughly 5 to 6 more points depending on the butterfly effect of that change.

As for me going one goalie with Binnington and replacing my goalies picked by your skaters picked in the same round, I would gain around 6 to 8. Would pretty much roll the skaters categories. Major drop in Saves but a spike in GAA and SV%. But again, this type of change in retrospect is hard to analyze as everything would've probably changed. Fun to think about though.

[Invictus]

You gaining 6-8 is a lot more then I thought! I figured your player stats would be so good the extra wouldn't benefit you as much as the points loss from W and Saves.

Those 5-6 points would secure me a solid 2nd place on your rankings.

[Dr.Brad]

Great Job everyone!! Thanks for participating!

Prizes will be shipped out when the Flyers win the Stanley Cup!

Don’t hold your breath.

And, for the record, I was at the only two Philly Stanley Cup parades.

[niconasr]

The fact I only have a 2 for Wins already helps.

[Invictus]

The fact I only have a 2 for Wins already helps.

Ah yes. Still neat (and surprising to me) how many pts you did gain though.