ROOS LETS LOOSE POLL: Playoff Scoring Barometers

[RizzeeDizzee]

I realize that the playoffs seem like a distant memory given all the activity stemming from free agency. But we should take the time now to think back to what happened in the second season and to determine whether it should be more of a barometer for how certain players will fare in 2022-23 than their 2021-22 regular season totals. So I've assembled a list of 20 skaters whose 2021-22 regular season scoring rate differed enough from their 2022 playoff scoring rate to wonder which version of that player we should expect to see in 2022-23.

VOTING GUIDELINES
For each of the 20 voting choices, I've denoted his 2022 playoff scoring rate, plus his 2021-22 regular season scoring rate. You should vote for a player if you believe his 2022 playoff scoring rate will be closer to his 2022-23 regular season scoring rate than his 2021-22 regular season scoring rate. So let's say a player's scoring rate was 85 in the 2022 playoffs but 65 in the 2021-22 regular season. That means you should vote for him if you believe he will score at a 76+ point rate in the 2022-23 regular season, as that would mean he'd score at a rate closer to his 2022 playoff rate than his 2021-22 regular season scoring rate. The same idea would apply if the player did worse in the 2022 playoffs, such as if his 2022 playoff rate was 56 and his 2021-22 regular season rate was 80, then you would vote for him if you think his 2022-23 regular season scoring rate will be 67 or less, as that would be closer to his 2022 playoff rate than his 2021-22 regular season rate. And note that I'm referring to scoring rate, which means a player's 82 game pace, not necessarily his actual point total.

As usual, it would be great if you could make a post listing who you voted for and why, to help the rest of us get added insight.

[RizzeeDizzee]

My votes went to:
Hedman - I think 2021-22 was a career best, and he comes back to earth a bit
Kreider - this is a guy who never scored at even a 60 point pace in his career prior to 2021-22
Lehkonen - I think the Avs liked what they saw from him in the top six
ROR - he's not over the hill yet
Pavelski - I think DeBoer might deemphasize him
Schenn - same as ROR
Tkachuk - this should be a lay-up as long as he has chemistry with Barkov
Vatrano - gets his long overdue spot in the top six
Zuccarello - maybe Kaprizov's arrival is delayed due to the Russia situation, or even if it isn't Zucc has to slow at some point

[Pengwin7]

Easy pick for me, Vatrano.
He just goes from two previous very road-blocked locations (FLA & NYR) to one with very little talent blocking him (ANA).
He should get line 2 and PP2 time all year and perhaps sniffs at PP1.

[loppantorkel]

Gaudreau - more likely to get less than 105p
Hedman and Kucherov both drop a bit, but probably in between.
Pavelski, Ovi and Zuccarello getting older, and the teams might not give them the same support as last season.
Shenn drops to more regular production of <65p
Vatrano should be able to be above 45p

[Dr.Brad]

Great poll. I mostly picked players whose playoff scoring rate had disappointed. Exceptions: 1). Lehkonen, given a full year in Colorado, and Vatrano, likely to achieve a top-6 spot.

[loppantorkel]

Passes according to my calculations....:
Joel Eriksson Ek
Johnny Gaudreau
Taylor Hall
Chris Kreider
Victor Hedman
Lehkonen
Marner
Ovi
B Schenn
Zibanejad
Zuccarello

Little over 50% Passed, and according to the poll, it's somewhat predictable, while guys like Pavelski defies expectations.