Nazar REP

[bbfl1987]

So I have first pick in my league’s prospect draft (only this draft class to pick from). I was dead set on Wright until I started reading the new Dobber prospect guide. They list Nazar’s 3yp at 75, and Wright at 65. In a points only league, should I consider Nazar?

[senryu]

Nazar seems to be one of those guys where half the prospect evaluators think he'll be very good and the other half think he won't make it at all.

If you're considering Nazar at #1 overall, then you're obligated to try to move down. He'll be available picks later unless an NHL team takes him very high.

In any event, I don't know how you'd go Nazar (even if Wright isn't your thing) ahead of Logan Cooley.

[bbfl1987]

Nazar seems to be one of those guys where half the prospect evaluators think he'll be very good and the other half think he won't make it at all.

If you're considering Nazar at #1 overall, then you're obligated to try to move down. He'll be available picks later unless an NHL team takes him very high.

In any event, I don't know how you'd go Nazar (even if Wright isn't your thing) ahead of Logan Cooley.

Cooley was going to be my next question. I like the Zegras comparison.

[Pengwin7]

For anybody that has a prospect draft, probably one of the most critical things you can do... is to learn yourself up on the USNTDP (US National Team Development Program).
There's many things to consider with this group.

1. Their schedule is... light. The U-18 team plays partially in the USHL and partially against low-tier colleges. There's a lot of points and inferior opponents there. (They do play high-end colleges - and usually lose those games and don't score much.)
https://www.usahockeyntdp.com/schedu...bseason=764306

2. The UNSNTDP was loaded in their top 6F/top 9F this year. There was a LOT of points there. Even Howard, McGroarty, Snuggerud, brother-Lucius, and Cole Spicer put up a lot of points.



3. How does one separate which one was most driving offensive play? Which one's game will translate best to the NHL?
https://www.thedraftanalyst.com/2022...tter-gauthier/

4. For comparables, there are guys in other Europe leagues, top leagues, 2nd leagues, the OHL (Wright). Those are ALL stiffer competition than the USHL and the hack colleges.

So... there's a LOT to unpack there.
IF Nazar ends up as an NHL-Center... I don't think there's a chance he'll outscore Wright. Wright, at absolute least, has an incredible shot that will secure him a PP1 slot on any team.
If Nazar ends up as an NHL-Winger... he's production WILL be tied to the skill of his center. Look at a guy like Jesse Puljujarvi... on and off lines with McDavid and/or Draisaitl. He's not gonna put up his own points. Or Zadina (DET, 6th OA pick).


Personally, I think all of the USNTDP forwards from this year could be 70+pt players... but I also won't be surprised to see all of them below 60pts for their first 3 years.

Nazar's not beating Wright if Nazar is a C.
And Nazar's only beating Wright if he's a W with a great center - so you'll have to speculate what team's have that to offer in the 6th-15th draft range... because that's probably where Nazar will go.



IMO - the guide is off with Nazar.
He looks great against undercard opponents.
We'll see how he does at a seriously depleted U-Michigan team next year.

(FWIW - Pronman and Wheeler, theathletic, are SO scattered on where to place these USNTDP players - is evidence enough that's it's a hard call beyond Cooley's apparent skill.)


For "points only" - I'd probably go with the top available winger, which is Slafkovsky. (likely NJ, likely 1st or 2nd line and PP1)

[bbfl1987]

For anybody that has a prospect draft, probably one of the most critical things you can do... is to learn yourself up on the USNTDP (US National Team Development Program).
There's many things to consider with this group.

1. Their schedule is... light. The U-18 team plays partially in the USHL and partially against low-tier colleges. There's a lot of points and inferior opponents there. (They do play high-end colleges - and usually lose those games and don't score much.)
https://www.usahockeyntdp.com/schedu...bseason=764306

2. The UNSNTDP was loaded in their top 6F/top 9F this year. There was a LOT of points there. Even Howard, McGroarty, Snuggerud, brother-Lucius, and Cole Spicer put up a lot of points.



3. How does one separate which one was most driving offensive play? Which one's game will translate best to the NHL?
https://www.thedraftanalyst.com/2022...tter-gauthier/

4. For comparables, there are guys in other Europe leagues, top leagues, 2nd leagues, the OHL (Wright). Those are ALL stiffer competition than the USHL and the hack colleges.

So... there's a LOT to unpack there.
IF Nazar ends up as an NHL-Center... I don't think there's a chance he'll outscore Wright. Wright, at absolute least, has an incredible shot that will secure him a PP1 slot on any team.
If Nazar ends up as an NHL-Winger... he's production WILL be tied to the skill of his center. Look at a guy like Jesse Puljujarvi... on and off lines with McDavid and/or Draisaitl. He's not gonna put up his own points. Or Zadina (DET, 6th OA pick).


Personally, I think all of the USNTDP forwards from this year could be 70+pt players... but I also won't be surprised to see all of them below 60pts for their first 3 years.

Nazar's not beating Wright if Nazar is a C.
And Nazar's only beating Wright if he's a W with a great center - so you'll have to speculate what team's have that to offer in the 6th-15th draft range... because that's probably where Nazar will go.



IMO - the guide is off with Nazar.
He looks great against undercard opponents.
We'll see how he does at a seriously depleted U-Michigan team next year.

(FWIW - Pronman and Wheeler, theathletic, are SO scattered on where to place these USNTDP players - is evidence enough that's it's a hard call beyond Cooley's apparent skill.)


For "points only" - I'd probably go with the top available winger, which is Slafkovsky. (likely NJ, likely 1st or 2nd line and PP1)

Great info, man. I’d rep this twice if I could.

[Bubba55]

You never know exactly how the draft is going to go, but I think it's fair to say that if Nazar goes in the top 10 it will be a team significantly going off the board. Nazar is ranked 17 by Hockey Writers, Craig Button has him at 24, Bob McKenzie has him at 14 while The Athletic has him a 16. I'd take one of Wright or Cooley with that 1st overall. In a 12 team league, based on these current rankings, Nazar could very well be available to you in the 2nd round.

[FinnishFlash]

I actually have Cooley ahead of Wright but that's a discussion for another day. I think Wright will be the better NHL player, but Cooley is going to be the better fantasy own, IMO.

Nazar, to me, is a high risk/high reward type. I think he is going to slide in the draft (nothing crazy, but I think late 1st round, maybe first couple of picks in the 2nd), where I think he's a good pick.

I don't have him in my top 10 for fantasy draft, maybe not even top 15 (my 10 to 20 is still a muddle).

[bbfl1987]

You never know exactly how the draft is going to go, but I think it's fair to say that if Nazar goes in the top 10 it will be a team significantly going off the board. Nazar is ranked 17 by Hockey Writers, Craig Button has him at 24, Bob McKenzie has him at 14 while The Athletic has him a 16. I'd take one of Wright or Cooley with that 1st overall. In a 12 team league, based on these current rankings, Nazar could very well be available to you in the 2nd round.

I tend to put too much stock in the ol’ 3yp

[Pengwin7]

Biggest issue with Cooley is that most mocks have him going to Arizona.
He'll get ice-time there, yes, but the team is bad.
And even Barrett Hayton (who is ready to be the two-way C1) may get to play with the most dynamic wingers (Keller & Guenther) for next few years.
Cooley is unlikely to be a C1 in his first 3 years.

Wright should (I think) go to Montreal. And he'll be probably sheltered as a C3 in his first year, and C2 in Y2,Y3, but I do expect him to get PP1 time with Caufield/Suzuki - which should be solid points.
Slaf should (I think) go to NJ. And transition to NHL wing is the easiest thing to make in NHL. And if he does go to NJ - he's likely riding with either Hughes or Hischier and on PP1 with those two and Bratt and/or Holtz, with Dougie at D. Lots of points there.
*If, by chance (and this COULD happen... and I don't see it discussed), New Jersey drafts Cooley and puts him at Winger... I'm absolutely salivating over that!

I just don't see another pick in points-only pools besides Wright/Slaf... or the wild-card of Cooley-to-NJ.

Nazar *could* beat those guys in a *dream* situation - which is to go to a team like VAN, at 15, play one year at U-M, then join the Canucks as top line winger and play PP1.
But... again... that's dream situation. Realistically, BUF & CBJ - both have two picks - will be interested in Nazar... and he'll be roadblocked there by slightly less-young forwards (Tage, Krebs, Mitts in BUF... Laine, ColeSill, K.Johnson, in CBJ).

Pronman has Nazar going at #16 to BUF in his mock.
Wheeler has Nazar going at #16 to BUF in his mock, as well.
Says Wheeler: "I’ve gone with Nazar, who is not as beloved in the private sphere as he is publicly,"

And I think DobberProspects is... safely... part of "publicly".
Consider that.

[bbfl1987]

Thanks all for getting me off the Nazar train!

[Pengwin7]

^Also - FWIW, if Wright goes #1... and you have a Habs fan in your league (?)... there'll be trade value ALL-season regardless of how his stats go!

[bbfl1987]

^Also - FWIW, if Wright goes #1... and you have a Habs fan in your league (?)... there'll be trade value ALL-season regardless of how his stats go!

I’m the Habs fan in my league…hahaha

[Axeman33]

I enjoy the Prospect Guide as much as the next guy, but it's just that; a guide. It's a great reference but you have to take the numbers with a grain of salt.

I would recommend going back three years ago and look at the numbers from that 2019 Prospect Guide and see how many of them have hit their projections. Top three picks in the actual draft were Jack Hughes, Kappo Kakko and then Kirby Dach. Do you think any of them have hit their projected numbers from that years guide? I'd say it's highly unlikely, and they were actual top three picks, which Nazar will not be.

I am not trying to crap on Dobbers guide by any means. I use it myself as a reference but when it comes to predicting numbers, it's hard to do. We really have no idea how these kids will develop and even the top pick in recent years (other than McDavid) has struggled to gain footing in the NHL for a few years at best. COULD Nazar be the best player from this draft? It's not unreasonable, but I wouldn't gamble the top pick in the draft on it.

As mentioned earlier, if he's someone you desire, I'm pretty sure you can drop a couple spots in the draft, pick up other picks or assets, and still draft Nazar a little further down. Just a suggestion.

[finnys_fanatsy]

ya, just looking at the list on page 4 of 223, Nazar isn't even in the top 15 on any list and the full list on page 6 is also wildly inconsistent, with 1 rating as #1 and another a NR

id really ask the question if that 3YP is not a misprint and perhaps supposed to be 57, which is more probable IMO?

[bbfl1987]

ya, just looking at the list on page 4 of 223, Nazar isn't even in the top 15 on any list and the full list on page 6 is also wildly inconsistent, with 1 rating as #1 and another a NR

id really ask the question if that 3YP is not a misprint and perhaps supposed to be 57, which is more probable IMO?

Hadn’t considered the possibility of a misprint. Good call.