Devon Toews, career year or real elite offensive defenseman?

[StanStanley]

Toews is already 28 and had elite production for the first time of his career with 57 points in 66 gp.

What can we expect from him for the next few years?

Can he maintain this production with Colorado? There is other great offensive options with Makar, Byram and Girard.

Can we expect 60-70 points or more for a few more years from him?

[kovalchuk17]

I had Dtoews in many leagues this year since I felt he was a good candidate to get 50 points in picks 90-100 somewhere due to the high scoring nature of the Avalanche. He exceeded expectations to say the least.

57 pts in 66 games paces out to almost 71 points in an 82 game season. I do not think this is repeatable by a player who gets PP2 time even if hes paired with Makar on the top pair at evens. Not a knock on Dtoews, just unsustainable to expect a player a 70 point dman who doesnt get to play on the top powerplay 2-5 minutes a game. To Dtoews' credit, he joins the rush alot and there is a set breakout from Makar that they do that leads to alot of offense.

Moving forward from a points per game lens this was definitely a career year. 50 points with some upside to 55-60 is reasonable. The main way he could exceed this is if Makar gets seriously injured and Dtoews assumes his PP1 role for a whole season. This deployment is not a guarantee as Girard or Byram could also take the PP1 reins. It will be interesting to see how he is ranked for drafts next season. He would be worth the risk around pick #60-75 if hes you consider him a threat for 60 points. Any higher....youre better off picking players with more solid top pair/PP1 roles

[Smurf54]

Overall, Toews is a great dman, and he plays on a team that should be strong for the foreseeable future. Some of his underlying metrics are slightly high, and his 75% secondary assists are concerning, but nothing here screams major adjustment. Normalizing his secondary assists probably knocks him down to about 50 points (around a 60pt pace). But he's a huge part of their team, plays 25mins per night, and I generally expect he will remain on the left side of Makar on their top pair for the foreseeable future. So while it's probably ambitious to expect 70pts next year, 60 pts appears attainable. And 50pts seems like a pretty safe bet.

Longer term (after next year), his biggest threat is likely Byram, and to a lesser extent, Girard. Toews is currently playing PP2, and at some point, the Avalanche will need to start feeding Byram some PP time, assuming he stays healthy. This would likely have to come at the expense of Toews' PP time, which accounted for 14 of his pts last year.

So is Toews a good own in fantasy hockey? Yeah, as long as expectations are reasonable. But I'm not sure he's in the top tier of offensive fantasy dmen. And in leagues that count +/-, be wary of his inflated ranking this year, as his insane +52 made him one of the most valuable dmen in my league. But that stat will be even tougher to repeat.

[pmorrow]

Toews is already 28 and had elite production for the first time of his career with 57 points in 66 gp.

What can we expect from him for the next few years?

Can he maintain this production with Colorado? There is other great offensive options with Makar, Byram and Girard.

Can we expect 60-70 points or more for a few more years from him?

I would not bank on that, but if you wanted me to guarantee 45 points (pace) with upside for 60 the next two years I'll sign off on that. I think NHL scoring comes down next year, I'd say Avs look different next year and I would say yes that's probably his career year or at least right near his top.

[niconasr]

I'll agree with the others in saying this is probably his career year. Toews always had upside even when in Long Island but I don't think anyone projected this kind of pace. That's what playing with Makar on the best team in the league gets you.

I think 50 points is where the expectation should be most years, even when he inevitably loses secondary PP time to Byram or Girard. Toews plays a ton of minutes on a very strong team, it's hard to see him regress too much. But yeah, I don't think we see this 70-point pace again.

[gmoney3]

I would say around the 55-point range would be a reasonable expectation for Toews over the next 2-3 years. I think year will be his peak year for point per game but with Colorado's current squad he will remain a valuable fantasy D.

[Feenom]

Career year and my expectations for at least the next 2-3 years is between 40-50 points. Not too shabby either way.

[stevegamer]

I also think this is his career year, but I wouldn't be shocked at a 60 point pace for a few more years while Colorado is loaded. I guess I'd say: good offensive defenseman, but career year.

[RizzeeDizzee]

Being stapled to Makar will likely put his floor at a 40-45 point pace, but I can't see him with a scoring rate above 55 again due to, most notably, a 75% secondary assist percentage. That number can only go down, and by quite a bit.

[EnglishJet]

I echo a lot of posters here saying I think it's a career year. He's a 50pt dman, and as long as he's stapled to Makar you will see him flirt with 60pts. But if he changes partners or loses PP2 time (which already isn't ideal) than his value goes with it. If you're looking to sell nows the time. But also, it's nice to have a 28 year old 50 to 60pt dman.