Barzal is BACK!

[Smurf54]

Just a quick post to acknowledge how excited I am to see Barzal unleashed under a new coach. After leading the team in scoring with 85 points in 2017/18 (just ahead of Tavares), he continued to lead the team in scoring each of the next 4 seasons, including this year. But under Trotz, the system hasn't been there for Barzal to thrive, and the numbers speak for themselves. He had a tough year, and a number of people have advised me that it may be time to drop him in my keeper league. But now I can't wait to see what he can do in a new system. Yeah baby!

In all seriousness, I think Trotz is a good coach and an experienced hockey guy. I wish him nothing but the best, and am pretty sure he will employed again soon. Just hopefully not as the head coach for any of the players on my fantasy team.

[Belexus75]

Was the system harmful to Barzals production? Yeah maybe a bit but to me there was more issues than that… he just didn’t produce…

on top of that we have no idea what type of coach comes over… Lou is smart man, he knows that talent on that team is limited so I would not be surprised if another defensively minded coach is on the horizon. I do think Barzal will be better than he was this year but I never seen him as consistent point per game guy.

[Smurf54]

Was the system harmful to Barzals production? Yeah maybe a bit but to me there was more issues than that… he just didn’t produce…

on top of that we have no idea what type of coach comes over… Lou is smart man, he knows that talent on that team is limited so I would not be surprised if another defensively minded coach is on the horizon. I do think Barzal will be better than he was this year but I never seen him as consistent point per game guy.

I guess we'll have to revisit this thread next year!

[stevegamer]

I think the issue was only partly Trotz. The talent issues, and specifically the older overpaid bottom 6 grinders are a function of the GM, and that's a problem that isn't going away.

[Smurf54]

I think the issue was only partly Trotz. The talent issues, and specifically the older overpaid bottom 6 grinders are a function of the GM, and that's a problem that isn't going away.

Quality of the supporting cast is definitely a concern. But all he really needs is one or two key offensive players to run with, and while he may not have another Tavares, I think the continued development of Dobson and Wahlstrom will help. Hell, if a new coach will just get him back to 20mins TOI per game, that's theoretically worth another 7 points on its own over 82 games. Before factoring in any changes to the offensive structure/system.

[rataylor22]

Quality of the supporting cast is definitely a concern. But all he really needs is one or two key offensive players to run with, and while he may not have another Tavares, I think the continued development of Dobson and Wahlstrom will help. Hell, if a new coach will just get him back to 20mins TOI per game, that's theoretically worth another 7 points on its own over 82 games. Before factoring in any changes to the offensive structure/system.

Barzal’s career high in point he averaged less TOI than this year. Barzal had the same # of points this year as the only year he averaged 20 min/g. This post really makes no sense and can’t be backed up by anything, and I love Barzal and hope he explodes.

[This Guy]

Lol wait until you know who the coach is. If it's Babcock, it's not much of an improvement.

[Smurf54]

Barzal’s career high in point he averaged less TOI than this year. Barzal had the same # of points this year as the only year he averaged 20 min/g. This post really makes no sense and can’t be backed up by anything, and I love Barzal and hope he explodes.

Barzal's career high in points was pre-Trotz (which is the whole point of this thread). Otherwise, over the past 4 years, Barzal has scored between 2.5 to 2.7 pts per 60 minutes. And the year in which he averaged 20mins TOI, he scored at a 72pt pace (over 82 games). This year, he scored at a 66 point pace. My comment was that playing another 2 mins would have potentially netted him another 7 points, bringing him up to a 73 point pace, which is pretty much dead on the year in which his TOI actually was 20mins.

So, long story short, is there a perfect correlation between TOI and points? Of course not. This is just friendly theoretical discussion about fantasy hockey. But does TOI impact scoring? Absolutely. Saying my post "really makes no sense and can't be backed up by anything" is just dumb.

If anything, your point just further supports my argument that Barzal will likely score more if given more time under a new coach.

[Smurf54]

Lol wait until you know who the coach is. If it's Babcock, it's not much of an improvement.

Haha very true. You never know what a new coach can bring, and Trotz is a good coach, even though this year didn't work out from a team perspective. But it's hard to imagine (knock on wood) that a new system can hurt Barzal's scoring more than what we have seen this year. I choose to think (hope?) this is the floor, and it can only go up from here, in terms of Barzal's personal scoring.

[butch]

ask Barzal if he'd prefer posting 60-70 point seasons while making it to the semis or 85 point seasons while missing playoffs

[Smurf54]

ask Barzal if he'd prefer posting 60-70 point seasons while making it to the semis or 85 point seasons while missing playoffs

Totally - most players are much happier having team success. Unfortunately, neither happened this year. I'm not sure if firing Trotz will be the right move for the success of the franchise, but either way, I think the team needs some roster adjustments. Trotz deserves a lot of credit for the team results over the previous 3 seasons. But as a frustrated Barzal owner, this thread is entirely selfish and focused on fantasy hockey results, which are often far-removed from the measurements of success in real world NHL hockey.

[2014olympicgold]

The roster is built for a Trotz like system. I am not excited to see Barzal score 70pts but end up -20 because the roster build wont mesh with the new coach.

It's such a bad mashup of unskilled forwards, and vets signed for a long time that it won't be a coaches 1st choice. So you're likely getting a coach that is either an AHL coach getting his first shot or 2nd shot in the NHL. Or a guy who isn't other teams 1st choice and I can't see that going well for the production of 1 player with Raty as the only other offensive guy I'd be excited about.

Barzal might shoot more under a new coach, so he's avg 2.4sog/game the last 3 yrs. Maybe that goes to 2.8-3.3sog/game (230-270/82gp) and his s% around the 10% mark so he can be a 23-27goal scorer. Maybe he's around that 40-45A mark. So you're looking at 63-72pt/82game stat line. Prolly -15 to -20. No hits, no blocks, no FW (44% the last 3 yrs). Which would put him point wise around the 25th best center in the league....He's already starting 73%+ of the shifts in the offensive zone so he can't really get more opportunities to put up points outside of his own execution.

12 team league, 2C, he's a 3rd Center on teams...and you're going to sacrifice a lot on the FW if that's a category. And if you're in a hitting league I don't think he's even a good player to roster in a 12team, 2C format.

If he gets winger eligibility then it's a completely different story.

[2014olympicgold]

FYI, 270SOG is top 15 in the league this past yr. So it's even a high mark likely for Barzal's numbers. 230SOG was 38th in the league. Those are a lot of SOG.

[Smurf54]

The roster is built for a Trotz like system. I am not excited to see Barzal score 70pts but end up -20 because the roster build wont mesh with the new coach.

It's such a bad mashup of unskilled forwards, and vets signed for a long time that it won't be a coaches 1st choice. So you're likely getting a coach that is either an AHL coach getting his first shot or 2nd shot in the NHL. Or a guy who isn't other teams 1st choice and I can't see that going well for the production of 1 player with Raty as the only other offensive guy I'd be excited about.

Barzal might shoot more under a new coach, so he's avg 2.4sog/game the last 3 yrs. Maybe that goes to 2.8-3.3sog/game (230-270/82gp) and his s% around the 10% mark so he can be a 23-27goal scorer. Maybe he's around that 40-45A mark. So you're looking at 63-72pt/82game stat line. Prolly -15 to -20. No hits, no blocks, no FW (44% the last 3 yrs). Which would put him point wise around the 25th best center in the league....He's already starting 73%+ of the shifts in the offensive zone so he can't really get more opportunities to put up points outside of his own execution.

12 team league, 2C, he's a 3rd Center on teams...and you're going to sacrifice a lot on the FW if that's a category. And if you're in a hitting league I don't think he's even a good player to roster in a 12team, 2C format.

If he gets winger eligibility then it's a completely different story.

There is definitely uncertainly around a new coach, and the organizational challenges you describe are real (although I am interested to see what Wahlstrom can do). But Barzal was already a -15 this year. And his stat line over the past 4 years has already been an 82gm pace of 63-72 points. So I mean, if that's the floor, it's not really getting any worse. And on the flip side, there is always potential for the situation to improve. And the individual talent is undoubtedly there.

Fortunately in my league we don't track FW's. He's currently my fourth C (behind Matthews, Pettersson, and Hughes). And was ranked 327th in our Yahoo league this year (which made him my worst player, and a drag on my team). But he was ranked 60th last year, and 88th the previous year. So he has and can be reasonably successful in my league structure. Time will tell, but I am hopeful/optimistic that he has brighter days ahead.

[blayze]

I doubt you'll see any meaningful increase in output even with a more offensive coach... Barzal is a solid 60-70 point guy who overachieved in his rookie year.