Gamble for 2023

[This Guy]

Hi everyone,

I've got two 1st round picks in this year's draft (currently 3rd and 4th OA) and am mulling flipping one plus a young player for a projected top 3 OA pick in 2023. I also have my 2nd rounder (projected 14-15 OA) but I don't think he'd go for it.
Ideally my team will suck next year too and I'd end up with two top three picks in 2023. I'm not the only one trying to get picks obviously, and the OGM is reluctant to part with his pick (in fact, I haven't asked yet, wanted to come up with an offer). His team is pretty bad and needs help in all areas. He's last in our league by a fair margin and I'd expect that for next year too. I've got one more year of rebuild before I start to be competitive and as it stands I'd not keep one of the below due to my keeper situation.

I've currently got the following as potential guys I'm reluctant to move but it could be worth the risk:
Necas (down year but has potential, it's hard to separate long-term between him and Jarvis)
Jarvis (see above)
Cirelli (potential Selke candidate eventually)
Kakko (name recognition but a bust so far)
Tuch
Pionk (I'd rather not part with D but he's really weak in this area)

I know that to lose a player plus a top pick in this year's draft sets me back in overall points, but as I can't keep one I'd rather gamble on 2023 star power.

I was thinking to offer the lower of my 1st rounders (protected if it's 1st OA) plus a player. I know I'd be overpaying but is the star potential worth it? And if so, who would you choose to package? He's a reluctant trader as he's been burned before (not by me), and his roster reflects it.

Any advice would be appreciated.

[senryu]

Remember that there's also a benefit in the time distance between the picks. Generally, pick 5 in 2022 is worth more than pick 5 in 2023 because you get to use the asset sooner. That may not be of value to the trading partner whose team stinks, but it is something.

My first instinct is that the guys you're considering offering are too much to add to go from 2022 to 2023 picks, even if at this point, it seems like the top 3 in 2023 have higher ceilings. The exception would be Cirelli, I'd make that deal.

[als_revenge]

Remember that there's also a benefit in the time distance between the picks. Generally, pick 5 in 2022 is worth more than pick 5 in 2023 because you get to use the asset sooner. That may not be of value to the trading partner whose team stinks, but it is something.

My first instinct is that the guys you're considering offering are too much to add to go from 2022 to 2023 picks, even if at this point, it seems like the top 3 in 2023 have higher ceilings. The exception would be Cirelli, I'd make that deal.

I think you have to also consider that he's currently dropping players like Bjorkstrand and Dylan Cozens. And he has Tuch listed as a drop. So it's more like Jarvis and his pick this year for a pick next year and Coznes/Tuch/Bjorkstrand. That doesn't seem bad to me at all. Although it seems like an awful deal for the other team, and I have no idea why they'd do it, especially with lottery protection this year. Presumably, the other team should get lottery protection next year - and more of it - since it's a better draft.

[senryu]

I think you have to also consider that he's currently dropping players like Bjorkstrand and Dylan Cozens. And he has Tuch listed as a drop. So it's more like Jarvis and his pick this year for a pick next year and Coznes/Tuch/Bjorkstrand. That doesn't seem bad to me at all. Although it seems like an awful deal for the other team, and I have no idea why they'd do it, especially with lottery protection this year. Presumably, the other team should get lottery protection next year - and more of it - since it's a better draft.

Ah, sometimes I don't appreciate that people are going to have to be dropped. That does make things more equitable. I hope it is enough!

[stevegamer]

I'd definitely do that, but I'd offer him a choice of a few guys you are willing to drop. You might even find that he likes a couple of them, so your 2nd might be in play.

Make sure Kakko is one of those names,

[This Guy]

Thanks for the advice guys! Yeah if I'm losing one anyway I'd rather try to package a deal so we'll see how it goes. Again, thanks for the feedback!