2023 1st Rounder

[cappy76]

Just got the following offer for my 1st overall next year:

Dach
Necas
Dobson

I've been holding on to my pick despite a number of GMs inquiring on it's availability as it more than likely is a top 3 pick next season with the current state of my team in the sig. Should I continue with the status quo and hold or is this worth moving?

[YzermansLegacy]

Not even close imo.

Bedard, Michkov, Fantilli... all 3 project to be mega stars.

There's a reason so many GMs are interested in that asset of yours. If you're rebuilding, there's only like 0.00001% chance you get a deal that's worth it to you.

Not saying Bedard is the next McDavid... but if he's close... would you make that deal for McD? Or Matthews? Or Mack? Or Kuch? That's the level we're talking here with the top 3 in 2023.

[Darkwing Puck]

I tend to value established assets over draft picks. Sure, Bedard could be the next Nathan MacKinnon, but he could also be the next Alexandre Daigle or he could break his leg tomorrow and never play hockey again.

That said, that's a terrible offer and you should reject it. Dach is just kind of meh right now. Necas was poised for a breakout this season and instead fell on his face. Dobson was a train wreck until about two months ago and given the way Barry Trotz handles his young players (for reference, see Oliver Wahlstrom buried on the 3rd line) who knows how he'll be used going forward.

[zambronies]

In a 12 team league this is a pass.

[This Guy]

It's a hard pass. You should only trade your 2023 1st if the offer blows the doors off especially if you're picking in the top 3. In one of my leagues I offered Carlson and Hall for Suzuki and 2023 1st to a contending team (not a lottery and would be in the 10-14 overall pick), got rejected. Just to put it in perspective. So the offer you got for a top 3 pick is crap IMO. It looks like you're in a rebuild so hold onto that pick unless it's a mind-blowing offer and you're getting quality not quantity. The top three guys are all expected to be PPG at minimum.

Another point, but Necas, Dach, and Dobson would not be farm eligible soon (depending on your GP and what counts), so you wouldn't be able to keep them. The OGM is just dumping their excess players to you that they won't keep this year, in order to secure a superstar in 2023. Just another reason why the deal you received was awful.

Long story short, hold that pick

[senryu]

If you are confident that your pick will be in the top 3, then you'll want to keep it unless you get bowled over. Every shark in your league is going to try to pull that pick from you in exchange for lesser assets.

[Axeman33]

That's a tough one because all three players offered to you are highly regarded players who haven't really scratched the surface of their skillset and for all we know, any of the two forwards could turn out better than anyone drafted next year. It's certainly a gamble. Every year, we see the first overall pick get overvalued, then slow to start their career and people sell too quick. How many were overvaluing Jack Hughes and it took him a few years to get his feet going. Same for Lafreniere two years ago, who was the consensus 1st overall pick, maybe challenged by Byfield. How have they started their NHL careers to this point?

Point being, people expect too much too soon from early picks. I am not saying to do the trade, or turn it down, I am just pointing out the obvious. Of course the next two year first consensus overall picks (wright and Bedard) project to be quality players but we are already seeing some question about Shane Wright for the upcoming draft and whether he's actually going 1st overall. I have no doubt he will but there's rumblings, for what those are worth.

Looking at your roster, I am pretty sure I'd be keeping Dach and Necas in a limited keeper but not Dobson so this trade turns into the two forwards for a top 3 pick. I dont think I'd be tempted enough to do that based on that fact but as I say, it's an interesting offer.

[Bubba55]

That's a tough one because all three players offered to you are highly regarded players who haven't really scratched the surface of their skillset and for all we know, any of the two forwards could turn out better than anyone drafted next year. It's certainly a gamble. Every year, we see the first overall pick get overvalued, then slow to start their career and people sell too quick. How many were overvaluing Jack Hughes and it took him a few years to get his feet going. Same for Lafreniere two years ago, who was the consensus 1st overall pick, maybe challenged by Byfield. How have they started their NHL careers to this point?

Point being, people expect too much too soon from early picks. I am not saying to do the trade, or turn it down, I am just pointing out the obvious. Of course the next two year first consensus overall picks (wright and Bedard) project to be quality players but we are already seeing some question about Shane Wright for the upcoming draft and whether he's actually going 1st overall. I have no doubt he will but there's rumblings, for what those are worth.

Looking at your roster, I am pretty sure I'd be keeping Dach and Necas in a limited keeper but not Dobson so this trade turns into the two forwards for a top 3 pick. I don't think I'd be tempted enough to do that based on that fact but as I say, it's an interesting offer.

Absolutely agree with this. IMO this is a fairly reasonable offer for that pick, its a tough decision to make. However, I don't think it would be a bad idea to look over the other GM's roster and ask for more, it's already been said, a lot of guys go all in on the top ranked prospects, so maybe the other guy will sweeten the deal. If not, I'd respectfully decline, there is a chance you can get a better return.

[cappy76]

I've been leaning towards not taking it but I will say Dach and Dobson would be able to be kept for free and only mean dropping 2 players from my current farm team. Necas has gone over the GP limit of me being able to move him down to my minors. So Necas as a keeper over someone that I currently have. Not sure if that changes anything but wanted to make sure to clear anything up. Thank you everyone for the replies I'm repping as I see them.

[senryu]

Here's the other thing. Each of the three guys proposed, at least as to my reading of the conventional wisdom, is someone with substantial ceiling limitation. Dach is a two-way center who doesn't seem to be a big scorer. Necas' present year is a non-trivial step backwards. Dobson's skill set seems to be more of the all-around defenseman Provorov type instead of the scoring, PP1 type. It's ok to trade what currently appears to be a elite player in the making for younger help. But if you were to do that, I'd want the elements to include at least one guy for whom you would say, without hesitation, that THAT guy is going to be a big-time, high-end producer. I don't think you can say that about any of Dach, Necas, or Dobson. They're all nice pieces, but I'd want something that could be more.

Also, and more importantly, This Guy has it nailed above

"Another point, but Necas, Dach, and Dobson would not be farm eligible soon (depending on your GP and what counts), so you wouldn't be able to keep them. The OGM is just dumping their excess players to you that they won't keep this year, in order to secure a superstar in 2023. Just another reason why the deal you received was awful."

This is a clear example of one owner cleaning out his scraps and hoping you'll trade him what he prizes most, the chance at ultra-elite talent. On principle, I wouldn't want to serve as this owner's willing accomplice.