Shane Wright

[flyers94]

What kind of production is everyone expecting from the start once he’s drafted? Will playing for Arizona or MTL make it tough for him to truly develop? I haven’t been able to watch him much besides highlights and unfortunately missed the Canada game last night.

[senryu]

The team that drafts him will greatly influence the answer to this question, so it is hard to make any prediction until that happens. That plus the slow starts of Lafreniere and Hughes should probably lead to lesser totals and predictions. If his defensive game is decent enough and he's with a winger who can score, then he might be in a good spot for 50. If he goes to Buffalo or Arizona, then expectations should be reduced.

[Axeman33]

I'm not expecting much out of the gate from him. It seems most prospects take a couple years to get their feet wet in the league before finding their game.

[FFleming5]

I think if we've seen anything from the lotto, that there is no guarantee that he plays for Montreal (12.1%) or Arizona (16.6%) -- while these teams do have the best odds there's only a 1/4 chance he ends up on one of these teams... one only need at the Rangers winning the Lafreniere sweepstakes to understand that a lottery isn't necessarily fair - its just odds.

That being said, I think 50+ points would be a win for Shane Wright in his inaugural season wherever he ends up... and if he goes to Arizona, I'd think long and hard with having him start his career on the Coyotes and not in the AHL

[Bubba55]

I'm not expecting much out of the gate from him. It seems most prospects take a couple years to get their feet wet in the league before finding their game.

I'm certainly on board with this. There has been an awful lot of hype and the term "generational talent" has been thrown around but I'm not sold on that. Wright is an excellent prospect along with quite a few others. Expecting dominance in the NHL immediately is not going to happen IMO. Where he lands is also a key factor to consider but no one knows where that will be. He's a must own in most leagues but he is a prospect, not a proven NHL superstar. One day, maybe, but not in his D +1 or +2.

[pmorrow]

What kind of production is everyone expecting from the start once he’s drafted? Will playing for Arizona or MTL make it tough for him to truly develop? I haven’t been able to watch him much besides highlights and unfortunately missed the Canada game last night.

I think he's a well seasoned junior player and chances are he gets big minutes right away in the NHL. But I'd say you hope for 40 points and anything else is a bonus.

[Daydream Nation]

I'm certainly on board with this. There has been an awful lot of hype and the term "generational talent" has been thrown around but I'm not sold on that. Wright is an excellent prospect along with quite a few others. Expecting dominance in the NHL immediately is not going to happen IMO. Where he lands is also a key factor to consider but no one knows where that will be. He's a must own in most leagues but he is a prospect, not a proven NHL superstar. One day, maybe, but not in his D +1 or +2.

I agree. From what I've heard, he has been good but not great this season in the OHL and he didn't really stand out in the couple games this week like Bedard did. Sounds like his #1 pick status is not guaranteed.

[rangerdanger]

Laf was certainly overhyped, being called a "generational" talent or "close to", or "can't miss" which I was always weary of. And now I think we can say, he was not an actual "generational" talent. Having a great "Jr" career is one thing, but being a "generational" talent is another. I honestly do not think we have seen a "generational prospect" since McDavid and Matthews. Maybe Hedman. That's not to say prospects can't become generational players, just that they are not all generational prospects. I thought Rasmus Dahlin was just a tier or two below "generational" but as we see, even he wasn't "can't miss".

And I would put Wright about a tier or two above Laf. Perhaps a bit CLOSER to "generational prospect" territory than Laf was, but still not there. All though I do feel like Wright is an all around safer bet than Laf was. Laf had multiple areas that were being overlooked in all the hype, like his lack of speed, his skating, the fact that he matured early and was consistently bigger and stronger than most of his Junior competition. And skating and play speed are so crucial in today's game where players are increasingly faster and better skaters. Something that similarly effected Dylan Strome when he entered the NHL. But these things were broadly overlooked or at least underrepresented when people were discussing him leading up to the draft. I don't think Wright has quite as many problematic areas, but he's still not "generational".

Connor Bedard to me, might be even closer to the "generational prospect" level than Wright even, I would put both of them in the same tier, which I would say, like Dahlin, are a tier or two below "generational". But I still wouldn't put him in the "generational" tier. All though I do think Bedard might be the closest SINCE Matthews and McDavid.

To me, a "generational prospect" is "can't miss". Guys with absolutely zero doubt that they will be key NHL players. We can see from the likes of Laf and Dahlin, who have both struggled to different degrees, that they were not such prospects. And while I am very confident that Wright will have a good to great NHL career, and I am more optimistic about him than I ever was for Laf, there is still room for him to fail. All though I do still think Wright is a better prospect than Laf was and more optimistic about Wright. And in those terms, I have Bedard slightly ahead of Wright. But when an actual "generational", can't miss" prospect comes along, there is no doubt about it. There are usually almost no weak points or areas where such generational prospects are deficient.

[JAC123]

I think he's a well seasoned junior player and chances are he gets big minutes right away in the NHL. But I'd say you hope for 40 points and anything else is a bonus.

Agree with this but I bump down to 35 points.
Saw him play in Kingston this year? And wasn’t spectacular. Yes one game. Has talent for sure! But will take time!

[zambronies]

Somewhere between McDavid and Yakupov. I have faith he will be a very good player, but he’s not a generational talent.

[Axeman33]

Here's the issue with Lafreniere (and I am sorry if I am slighting off topic here but I will bring it back); most had a idea that once he got drafted by the Rangers, a team already heavy on the LW side of the house with Kreider and Panarin, that Lafreniere would not jump off the page in year one or two. If you thought differently and was expecting big things from him out of the gate, you weren't really paying attention. Lafreniere will be fine in due time but the opportunity just isn't wasnt there for him out of the gate. They couldnt send him back to Junior because he was simply too good for that league. AHL wasn't an option due to the CBA. The Rangers had to bring him up. Personally I would have liked to see him go to Europe and play in one of the elite leagues over there for the experience but that's hindsight now.

As far as Wright goes (see, told you I'd bring it back), much like Lafreniere, it will depend on where he goes and that team's situation. It should be easier for him to make the transition because he's a Center (Lafreniere was a straight up LW) and it's easier to move a Center to the wing and find a home for him to come along. That's what I can see happening out of the gate for him. It really will depend on where he goes and that will determine to me more about his initial success out of the gate versus how he ends up being in 5 years.

And no, he's not generational. Right now, he's an excellent Junior player and nothing more.

[Fighting_Emu]

Laf was certainly overhyped, being called a "generational" talent or "close to", or "can't miss" which I was always weary of. And now I think we can say, he was not an actual "generational" talent. Having a great "Jr" career is one thing, but being a "generational" talent is another. I honestly do not think we have seen a "generational prospect" since McDavid and Matthews. Maybe Hedman. That's not to say prospects can't become generational players, just that they are not all generational prospects. I thought Rasmus Dahlin was just a tier or two below "generational" but as we see, even he wasn't "can't miss".
.

Im not saying he is or he isnt but its still way to early to say we know definitively. By this logic Mackinnon is NOT generational because he strugged out of the gate. I dont think anyone ever expected Laf to be better than Mackinoon anyways- maybe on par? Hes got time to show hes better. Hes been hot af on the topline recently...

[YzermansLegacy]

Semantics of "generational" aside - respectfully disagree with those who don't see Wright as a future star. I personally see him in the same tier as former #1's like Tavares/Stamkos/MacKinnon.

Bedard (who very well could be 'generational') hasn't had a "killer" season up til now either. What Wright did last year in Kingston and at the U18s before that with Don Mills... gives me 100% confidence in his likely ascension to all-star status in the NHL down the road.

As Senryu noted - you'll need to know where he gets drafted to before having any chance at making a strong prediction for points next year.

[finnys_fanatsy]

kinda off topic, kinda not..

lets say SW does end up in BUFF..hes joing a young and rising group. i love all this Buffalo is junk talk, i for one am really lookin fwd to what the Sabres can do in a few years

[senryu]

kinda off topic, kinda not..

lets say SW does end up in BUFF..hes joing a young and rising group. i love all this Buffalo is junk talk, i for one am really lookin fwd to what the Sabres can do in a few years

But will a star who lands in Buf stay there? The echoes of Eichel are going to ring loudly and if, let's say, Dahlin forces his way out, then it'll be hard to predict any future cohesion for a group of young guns. The only thing Buffalo can really do would be to overpay their young stars to stay, which Buffalo's ownership seems loathe to do, post-Leino and Ehrhoff.