Christian Dvorak

[jdreed3184]

He's having a brutal year (along with much of the Habs roster).

Will Dvorak become a reliable 50-60 point center in MTL? His salary is half decent and all I need him to be is a 55 point guy. Too much to ask?

[agentzero]

Too much to ask yes. Not on this team. He needs a lot of help. The upside is there but I’d say that would be his best two years. Something like 60. He’s a Chris Drury type playing on non-Chris Drury teams. Way less talent to surround him.

I’d look elsewhere for anything 55+

[stevegamer]

He left a tire fire for a dumpster fire. Luckily the dumpster fire can be resolved much more easily. It will take time, though, so you may want to look for someone on a better team that seems to be breaking out somewhat quietly.

[Bubba55]

Dvorak's two best years saw him on an 82 game pace for 45 pts. He's 27 years old now, and should be in his prime. He is getting tons of quality ice time this year and is on an 82 game pace of 36 pts. 55??? I don't think so. At this point, besting his best, he maybe hits 50. Or not. It is true that his playing environment has indeed gone from a tire fire for a dumpster fire but the numbers are the numbers and I think you need to go with that and not hope for more. At some point he could well be a reliable 50 - 60 point player but that is unlikely to happen this year and maybe it's not in the cards at all. In fact, unless Dvorak can skate first line with the Habs moving forward, his upside is a whole lot closer to 45 - 50 than 55 -60 and I don't think he skates those minutes, he's 2nd line on a not great team.

[rangerdanger]

He has been MUCH better the past few weeks. Dare I say he's finally acclimating himself in Montreal. People were and still are overreacting a bit on his awful, all be it early play. But his trajectory has been positive the past few weeks at least. He's going to continue to be one of the top FW guys in all of fantasy hockey. He doesn't produce a ton of hits, but puts up Blocks as good as many Dmen, which is fairly unique for a forward. He gets some PIM, but nothing to productive.

As far as his point producing, well, I think 50-60 points was probably the general expectation. Hard to say what his actual ceiling could be. But I think right now, on the whole season, he's only on pace for about 40 points. But in his last 10 games, he's on pace for 57 points, which would put him close to what I think is a reasonable expectation. His +/-, a stat I don't put too much stock in, but one that is often a fantasy cat, was <20 earlier in the season. He's now improved it to -13, which isn't good, but improving. And relative to the team he's on, actually not so bad. Clearly, it's taking him time to acclimate to his new club and even though he's produced better the past couple of weeks, I don't think he's wholly comfortable or at his best yet. So I would still expect some more improvement and hopefully consistency along the way.

Dumpster fire? Well, maybe in regard to the Habs as a whole. But I wouldn't necessarily say that about Dvorak. In leagues with FW, BLK and HIT he is still a VERY good fantasy producer. And I think when his point production steadies and he reverts to his mean, he will still be lurking around the top 100 in these peripheral leagues. In points only leagues, it's a bit more an issue. But then I think he was ALWAYS substantially more valuable in leagues with those peripherals than in points only leagues.

With that said though, if he continues this pace of the past 10 games, or even improves slightly, he'd still be producing around a 60 point pace which is not only encouraging, but kind of debunks the reactionary narratives of his first month and a half or so of subpar production.

And considering the state of the Habs, considering Petry, who has been one of the best D producers the past few years, is absolutely floundering, and Suzuki seems to have spurts of being in a rut, it's not farfetched to speculate that Dvorak will improve when the team improves. Toffoli, who unfortunately just got injured, similarly started the year off bad and has picked it up the past few weeks. Caufield as well, who got sent down early on, made his way back and looks a bit better.

So not, not too much to ask. I think realistically, he is exactly what most should have thought he was. Not as good as some thought he was and not as bad as others now think he is.

But he should be right there in that 50-60 point range if all things normalize. And again, in leagues with peripherals, he will still be a fairly valuable asset. In my multi-cat dynasty league in my signature, where I own Dvorak, he currently sits ranked 151st overall. Which really is not terrible and better than a lot of other players that people are not negative on. Last season in this league he finished 87th overall, so my guess is he finishes somewhere in between 151 and 87, which is probably a reasonable expectation year to year, with the possibility of being even better when/if the Habs eventually improve as a team.

Habs fans are fiercely loyal and extraordinarily emotional in terms of overreacting to ups and downs of their teams and players. SO there is a lot of unnecessary negativity around Dvorak right now. I think a lot of Habs fans and non-Habs fans for that matter, kind of associate this downturn for the Habs this season directly with the arrival of Dvorak. And while he certainly wasn't really helping his cause the first month and a half or so, he's probably getting way more blame and over-responsibility than he's actually due as the entire team has taken a major stumble from where they were last season.