My Annual 15 Fearless Forecasts, plus POLL

[RizzeeDizzee]

It's that time again where I put on my prognosticator hat and submit to you, the DobberHockey readers, my 15 Fearless Forecasts for the upcoming season. For those unfamiliar with the Forecasts, they're meant to be plausible yet also more bold than traditional predictions. Basically I try to swing for the fences with each one. But if you read the associated column (being posted on the main site on opening day - Tuesday October 12th), you'll see there is some logic behind all of them as well as an explanation as to why certain ones which might not seem so bold actually are.

And part of the fun is you get to choose the one(s) you think will end up happening, which you do by voting for it/them in this poll. I've also included a 16th "none of the above" pick in case you believe I'm completely off base with each one.

Lastly, I'm hoping that you'll post here not only which ones you voted for and why, but also add some forecasts of your own. Have fun voting, and best of luck in your leagues this season.

Here is the full text for each forecast, as in some cases I had to shorten the language a bit to fit in the poll:

1) Neither Mark Stone nor Max Pacioretty will score 70 points
2) Alexander Wennberg will score at a higher points per game rate than Jared McCann
3) Adam Fox will not finish in the top ten in defensemen scoring
4) Patrik Laine will average under 0.30 goals per game (i.e., tally 24 or fewer goals in 82 games)
5) The GAA for the New York Islanders, as a team, will be below 2.00 (i.e., the Islanders will allow an average of fewer than two goals per game)
6) Steven Stamkos will have more points on the Power Play than at Even Strength
7) Juuse Saros will win 40+ games
8) Jason Robertson won’t be one of the top five scoring forwards, per game, on the Stars
9) Trevor Zegras and Jamie Drysdale will combine to score 115+ points
10) Josh Norris will score 75+ points
11) Despite the 2021-22 season being 26 games longer, MacKenzie Weegar will score fewer total points than he did in 2020-21
12) Unless one of them starts 55+ games, neither Petr Mrazek nor Jack Campbell will win 20 games
13) Alex DeBrincat will outpoint Patrick Kane on a per game basis
14) Shayne Gostisbehere will score more points, on a per game basis, than any Flyer defenseman
15) At least one of Nikita Kucherov and Connor McDavid will have an individual Power Play Point total higher than the total number of Power Play Goals scored by any of the other 30 NHL teams - that is, none of the other 30 NHL teams will have more PPGs as a team than the PPPt total of either or both of Kucherov or McDavid

[stevegamer]

I voted for these:
1. Adam Fox will not finish in the top ten in defensemen scoring
Defense scoring is highly variable, and it's very plausible for him to drop off some. I seem to remember him having big games in those games where the Flyers couldn't stop a beach ball - not that he was the only one. Trouba missed a lot of time last year, so I'm thinking he loses a little bit of ice time there, as he won't have to be doing everything as much.


14. Ghost will score more points, on a per game basis, than any Flyer d-man
I feel that the Flyers are going to divvy up the PP time enough that nobody see a large enough chunk to dominate heavily enough to add to the TOI they will get at even strength. The PP specialists should playsheltered minutes. I suspect he gets to revert to shooting a lot in Arizona, which could turn into a good points year.

15. Kucherov or McDavid's PPTs will exceed the PPGs of any other entire team. Some team is going to be brutal, and the Oilers will be excellent. However, there are now 31 other teams, which gives them even more of a chance.

I could see #1, #2, #8, #11, and #13 happening, particularly if players get hurt to miss time for a while, or be very hampered. For #11, Weegar is a guy who hit what I thought was his top end scoring last year in short season, but he got very few PP points. For #8, there easily could be a guy who scores at a crazy rate in a few games, or Robertson is cold, then gets hurt.

#12 seems like you're banking on a third goalie playing a lot, which could happen, but I'd expect 20 wins in 40ish starts on a good team, and 45+ would be a more interesting number for that.


MacKenzie Weegar will score fewer total points than he did in 2020-21

[RizzeeDizzee]

I voted for these:
15. Kucherov or McDavid's PPTs will exceed the PPGs of any other entire team. Some team is going to be brutal, and the Oilers will be excellent. However, there are now 31 other teams, which gives them even more of a chance.

I think this one was being misinterpreted based on how it was written, so I edited the original post to clarify. I didn't mean that one of their PPPts total will be higher than at least one NHL team's PPG total. I'm guessing that happens with one or more players every season. What I meant is if you take the highest team PPG total of any of the other 30 teams, one or both of McDavid and Kucherov will have more individual PPPts than that PPG total. To put that in perspective, most years at least one team gets over 60 PPGs, but going back to 2000-01, only Crosby - with 61 - has ever had over 60 PPPts. If anything, this should likely be one of the forecasts with the fewest total votes.

Hopefully that clears things up - sorry for any confusion.

[Eskimo Brother]

I only voted for the Isles being sub-2.0.

[stevegamer]

I think this one was being misinterpreted based on how it was written, so I edited the original post to clarify. I didn't mean that one of their PPPts total will be higher than at least one NHL team's PPG total. I'm guessing that happens with one or more players every season. What I meant is if you take the highest team PPG total of any of the other 30 teams, one or both of McDavid and Kucherov will have more individual PPPts than that PPG total. To put that in perspective, most years at least one team gets over 60 PPGs, but going back to 2000-01, only Crosby - with 61 - has ever had over 60 PPPts. If anything, this should likely be one of the forecasts with the fewest total votes.

Hopefully that clears things up - sorry for any confusion.

Yeah, I wouldn't have voted for it edited that way.

[hockeyrobot]

Damn I meant to have the Stone/Max one as well. Otherwise I had the Weegar one, which I think is pretty likely. I also went for Wennberg over McCann. Otherwise these were pretty tough.

[senryu]

I voted for Stone/Max and Stamkos becoming more of a PPP player than a 5x5 player. A vote of confidence for a Kucherov-returned PP unit and a reasoning that Stamkos's decline will show.

[Kraken The Whip]

I voted Adam Fox will not be in the top 10 D men scoring.

[FrozenInferno]

Call me crazy but I actually think DeBrincat has a shot at outscoring Kane this year. Kane still has a lingering injury issue from last season and Cat just keeps finding new levels to his game. The transition is going to happen eventually (Cat taking the Hawks scoring lead and not looking back) and it’s still a bold take but there is a greater than zero chance this could be the year.

[chuckcouples]

I agreed with 4 of these:

Stone/Pacorietty
Adam Fox
Jason Robertson
Mackenzie Weegar

[PenguinHunter]

I voted for:

- Jason Robertson being outside the top 5 producers in Dallas
- Zegras and Drysdale combining for 115+
- Weegar not matching last years point totals.

[PenguinHunter]

My own fearless forecasts:

1) All Seven Canadian Teams make the playoffs.
2) Dallas Stars will not have a player score over 50 points - but they will have 8 players score between 40 and 50.
3) John Gibson wins the Vezina Trophy after carrying the team to a playoff spot.
4) Tarasenko gets traded twice during the season.

[RizzeeDizzee]

My own fearless forecasts:

1) All Seven Canadian Teams make the playoffs.
2) Dallas Stars will not have a player score over 50 points - but they will have 8 players score between 40 and 50.
3) John Gibson wins the Vezina Trophy after carrying the team to a playoff spot.
4) Tarasenko gets traded twice during the season.

These are really good ones. Definitely keeping with the bold but plausible theme.

[Fidrat_Dude]

I'm new around here and I don't mean this to be a negative comment but I don't think it's so bold a prediction about Stone/Patches because they have never put up 70 points in any season anyway. They just don't stay healthy.

So yeah, I'd say that one is a LOCK to happen!

[Sabes16]

I wonder why so many don't think Stone or Patches will hit 70? They are playing in a division with:
Anaheim
Calgary
Edmonton
Los Angeles
San Jose
Seattle
Vancouver

Pretty meager defenses if you ask me. 70 for each seems more a certainty than a question mark.