McDavid's Trade Value

[TheMule_91]

Drafted the league in my signature below and ended up with this team picking 14th overall. After owning McDavid (and as an Oilers fan) last season I feel myself wanting to trade for him, but I don't want to weaken my team doing this. As the best player in the league, what would you expect from my roster in a trade offer?

I began with an offer of Barkov+JT Miller, which I don't expect him to accept but perhaps counter with Barkov+Huberdeau. I think Barkov+Huberdeau will be an exciting pair to own this season but is it worth giving up for McDavid?

FA is thin. Very thin which is why I prefer to stay away from 2 for 1 trades. And it doesn't help that if Kane is suspended as a result of these investigations I'll need to drop him for an active player.

[capsovi08]

I believe it was 3 years ago I traded for him in our 16 team redraft pts only league (2 keepers). I gave up Pastrnak, Point and Taylor Hall (the year after winning the MVP). I didn't believe that was an overpayment for him. He won me the league last year and I was second the year prior. With 3 pts for goals, 2 for assists and an extra pt for ppp he dominates.

[Pengwin7]

Because McDavid is SOOOO much better than every other NHLer (not named Draisaitl)... it's always a 2-for-2 trade.


Team1 gets: McDavid (120pts) + nothing(meaning the value of a waiver wire forward, +5pts for skillful finders)
Team2 gets: Barkov (90pts) + Player2(a value required to balance Team1).


So this trade is league dependent of size to the forwards on waiver wire.

In a shallow league, waiver wire forward might be 60pts.
In that case: McDavid (120) + WWF (60+5) = 185.
So the add-player to Barkov has to be a 95pt player for it to be "balanced".

In a deep league, waiver wire forward might be 40pts.
In that case: McDavid (120) + WWF (40+5) = 165.
So the add-player to Barkov has to be a 75pt player for it to be "balanced".


The easy part... if you are keen GM... is finding the WaiverWireForward+ guy.
Those guys are around all year, and you might find a guy emerging on a topline fill in that is playing at a WaiverWireForward play +10pts.

THIS - ability to find value on the wire - is the reason why getting McDavid in a deal USUALLY results in the better side.
Also... with McDavid - that's ONE quality player... if your WWF gets injured... you just go fetch another.
With the TWO player side... you've got two players that hurt your team if either gets injured... gotta go to WW and take a hit on production.


These are the reasons why McDavid side is always preferred in trades.
So... figure out what your WWF is at in your league.
And realize you might have to put two players at that value... maybe +5pts... maybe +10pts... maybe +15pts... to get the other GM to be interested.
(Most experienced GMs intrinsically know the value of McDavid... and just won't trade him... because a Barkov/Marner offer seems like "too much"... but often, it's the right amount if WWF = 60pt guy.)


I can tell you this... Barkov/JT Miller are only going to get it done in a very, very, VERY deep league. (Maybe 16+teams x 12F)

[TheMule_91]

Thanks for the analytical response. I've attached an image of some forwards on FA. I'm on mobile so hopefully the image appears below. Looks like some 40pt forwards exist.

Screenshot_20211008-093128_Yahoo Fantasy.jpg

[Pengwin7]

I would call Reilly Smith, Fabbri, Zucker - guys that could be 50pt forwards. Moderate depth (not shallow, not deep).
So a keen GM will eventually find a forward on waivers that can score at about 55pts... at least for a while... then dump that guy when he finds another guy that can score at 55pt pace... for a while.

So..
McDavid(120) + WWF(55) = 175.
If we call Barkov a 90pt player... then you've got to add an 85pt player to make this deal "level".

See... it's a lot to offer... but it's real towards how valuable McDavid is.
(And I have to use "points" as the calculator... because multi-cat value is just way too hard to talk about.)

[TheMule_91]

That helps put into perspective McDavids cost. I agree it's simpler to discuss using points. I'll mull over barkov and huberdeau over the weekend. At the end of the day if I stick with Barkov and Hubs I'm sure I'll be fine.

Thanks p7

[LawMan]

Not going to disagree with Pengwin's math because it is correct. From an analytical perspective McDavid is very close to Barkov + Huberdeau
That being said do not be surprised if Barkov + Huberdeau is rejected and seen as not enough to get McDavid. Generally for McDavid you have to completely overpay for a combination of reasons:
1. Star power. He is fun to own
2. fear of underselling. Logically 120p is fair for McDavid (1.5PPG) but 140+ is talked about and possible.

[fantasyhockeygeek]

The deal you have proposed and our buddy Peng has analyzed is what it costs to make the deal "fair". If I'm the McDavid owner, fair doesn't get me at all motivated to do a deal, because I'll keep the player I have rather than do something lateral. I'd suggest you're likely to have to provide an ~20 P incentive, or they'll just sit on their hands... or at least a rational negotiator would.

[TheMule_91]

Good points. If I owned McDavid I'd likely just hold him all season. Interesting point on fear of underselling.

I suppose that's the price for acquiring the best player in the league.

[Sidenown]

Speaking to the last two points made regarding the need for star power and overpay; in my experience it is hard to get a McDavid owner to consider if you aren't including a top 8ish fantasy player in the deal who also has serious name value (i.e. Kuch, Mack, Drai, Vasi, Matthews, maybe Pasta)