Keeper League Draft 1st pick

[ATN P4YR0]

Hi everyone,

I'm looking for advice concerning the upcoming draft in a keeper league (12 GMs / 9 keepers / points only / 12F / 6D / 2G / 2IR / 4Bench).
My roster: (F) Hintz, Bennett, Strome, Vrana, Miller, Svechnikov, (D) Nurse, Werenski, (G) Campbell, Kahkonen (just promoted from farm team for being over 25 - thus why I have 10 players instead of 9)

You can imagine that the who's who are already taken: 71 F / 28 D / 20 G are already off the table - once again this is more than 9 keepers * 12 GMs (108) because some rookies off of farm teams were promoted to full roster either because over 25 or more than 150 games. So here's what's left:

Andre Burakovsky	Jonathan Marchessault	Joe Pavelski	Kasperi Kapanen
Jakub Voracek	Carter Verhaeghe	Dylan Larkin	Timo Meier
Oliver Bjorkstrand	Mike Hoffman	Brock Nelson	Viktor Arvidsson
Evander Kane	Jared McCann	Zach Hyman	Josh Bailey
Travis Konecny	Tomas Hertl	Anthony Duclair	Alex Killorn
Bryan Rust	William Karlsson	Jeff Petry	Tom Wilson
Sam Reinhart	T.J. Oshie	Anthony Beauvillier	Victor Olofsson
Claude Giroux	Clayton Keller	Connor Brown	Drake Batherson
Vincent Trocheck	Phil Kessel	James van Riemsdyk	Ondrej Palat
Tyler Toffoli	Jack Roslovic	Andrew Mangiapane	Alex Iafallo
Tomas Tatar	Tyler Bertuzzi	Alexander Radulov	Anders Lee
Pavel Buchnevich	Brayden Schenn	Kailer Yamamoto	Cam Atkinson
Bo Horvat	Jakob Chychrun	Pavel Zacha	Jordan Eberle

Out of the 3 positions, defensmen are the position that GMs are missing the most (55% G / 42% F / 33% D - Roster filled). My picks are 1st 20th 25th 44th in the fist 4 rounds. I was wondering if it would be a mistake to take Jakob Chychrun as the first pick overall? He seems to be the highest ADP on most sites I've looked, but the roster Arizona is putting on the ice for 2021-2022 as me worried he won't perform to the projected 55+ pt season. Should I play it safe with a Rust / Burakovski / Reinhart instead?

1st post here - thank you all for the advice in advance!

[Russian Rocket 10]

Eww! There's not a lot to choose from, eh?
I actually think Chychrun would be a fine pick at 1st overall, if you want a d-man. I always have a soft spot for 50-point(ish) defencemen.
If you wanted to opt for a forward, I would consider Giroux, Reinhart or even Bjorkstrand.

For what it's worth, maybe it's time to start packaging some of the 2 tier players on your roster for a real stud or two.

Good luck!

- - - Updated - - -

Oh...and welcome to the forums!
Best of luck!

[DangerCat]

Man I think with absence of Weber, Petry now gets a full season running PP1. He keeps getting better with age. He's probably going to start declining in 2 years but even in a points only league i wouldn't count him out for 55-60 points this year. I think Yamamoto has a big year but i wouldn't take him 1st he should be around for a few rounds. Really points wise all these players figure in the 55-60 mark with the exception of most of the D-men. I bet McCann surprises. I mean for me It's Petry as all these forwards figure to be in the same point range. My thoughts.

[Russian Rocket 10]

Man I think with absence of Weber, Petry now gets a full season running PP1. He keeps getting better with age. He's probably going to start declining in 2 years but even in a points only league i wouldn't count him out for 55-60 points this year. I think Yamamoto has a big year but i wouldn't take him 1st he should be around for a few rounds. Really points wise all these players figure in the 55-60 mark with the exception of most of the D-men. I bet McCann surprises. I mean for me It's Petry as all these forwards figure to be in the same point range. My thoughts.

I was also looking at Petry. I might also take him at 1st overall.

[senryu]

In points only, I'd go Chychrun but Petry is a good choice.

[ATN P4YR0]

Yeah Petry will be the guy in MTL on PP1 and no one there to challenge him for those minutes either. Chychrun has Gostisbehere that could challenge him a bit (or maybe ARI plays with 2D on PP1?) and the fact they'll have a terrible season... but if he develops well i could have him as a long term keeper.

As far as the weakness of my roster goes, I just joined this group and bought in for the team with the worst roster, a slow and steady rise to the top is coming for me I hope!

Thank you for the advice all !

[Feenom]

Petry/Chychrun on D or Reinhart/Bjorkstrand up front.

[Bass56]

Give me Giroux here. I’d treat him as a 1-year guy since I don’t feel anyone available is that much better than your current 9 so I’d go with the guy with the highest upside this year.

[Blues_fan1000]

Reinhart for me. He's been improving at buffalo and now gets top line / top pp min with barkov all year? yes please!