Keeper help/validation

[pumpkinxyz]

Hey all! We are handing in our keepers in less than 2 weeks so wanted to check-in here and see what people's thoughts are for my keepers. Bolded my keepers.

Cap league (aav) and team in signature. In win now. We keep 7F, 4D and 1G. Expansion team this year picking 12 players before our draft.

Really struggling with last D keeper. Assuming I'll keep Q. Hughes but will depend on his contract. Not willing to pay $9M for a D. Have offered a bunch for trades but nothing happening trade wise in the league.

Any thoughts would be greatly appreciated.

Thanks!

[tweetdrivr]

I’m not keeping Campbell. Demko will be better value I think. Ty Smith is also not a keeper with Hamilton in town. I think I’d be keep Eichel and Hughes over Robertson and Guentzel.

[HonkyTonkMan]

If it was a multi cat, you would have more options. In straight points, other than Carlson, no one will be close to Quinn

[Feenom]

Hmmm, I’d probably think of keeping J Hughes and leave Ty Smith to the wolves. Hopefully Campbell will get you enough starts to make it worthwhile keeping him. I think he should if he is healthy. Good luck.

[pumpkinxyz]

Thanks for the replies. Here are my thoughts

1) Goalies are voodoo, so I much rather take a chance on Campbell at $1,65M than Demko at $5M.
2) I can't just drop Ty Smith for J. Hughes (one is D other is F)
3) In a cap league no way I'm keeping Eichel while I'm already protecting McDavid at $12,5M and Kucherov at $9,5M. Especially with health issues. Pretty sure I can redraft him as other GMs are more obsessed with drafting low salary guys.

If I were to drop Ty Smith I'm not sure who would be worth keeping. Hronek (depending on contract)? Byram at $3,4M aav? Ty Smith is my only D with a really cheap cap at $1,263M (next closest is Bean but he's in a worst situation than Smith with Werenski and Boqvist). If Smith nets me 30 pts at his cap that is pretty good and leaves more dollars for productive forwards.

Robertson at less than $1M is an absolute keep in a cap league I think.

Letting Hughes go is something I'm really debating but at $3,775M is he really worth it? Not sure who I could drop to keep him!?

[tweetdrivr]

Seem to be missing some info on how you figure AAV then. Both Jack Hughes and Byram are being paid less than $1 mil this season.

[pumpkinxyz]

Seem to be missing some info on how you figure AAV then. Both Jack Hughes and Byram are being paid less than $1 mil this season.

Those numbers are cap hit, not aav. Look them up on cap friendly and you'll see their aav is higher.

[mdratch]

What about Toews? 4.1 mil and he paced for 47 points over 82 games last season. His contract is very nice for that type of production.

I think I like your forward keeps, Robertson's points per million is gross. As per D, since you're saving on Campbell and Robertson and have all those great forward deals (guentzel, Pastrnak, Huberdeau, j.rob) I'd probably take on Carlson's 8 million myself. 60+ points is unlikely to be replaceable on D. I'm keeping Quinn for sure too, he'll be worth every penny in points only. (Those two alone could net you 120 - 150 points on D combined) And I'd just take on an extra ELC to balance each of them out. But if you prefer keeping good contracts I'd be considering Devon Toews.

Also, Detroit will be better next season and likely score more. Hronek lead their team in scoring, and his blast from the point will be hard to replace. Depending what his contract is like, he could be in consideration. Unless Moritz really is the terminator.

Anyways, hope the extra perspective is helpful for your decision!

[tweetdrivr]

Good puts. I like Toews too.

You use AAV including perf bonuses. The cap league I’m in we use AAV without perf bonuses - keeps it simpler and makes ELCs the value they should be. I’d still want Hughes at $3.7 over Geuntzl at $6.

[mdratch]

Good puts. I like Toews too.

You use AAV including perf bonuses. The cap league I’m in we use AAV without perf bonuses - keeps it simpler and makes ELCs the value they should be. I’d still want Hughes at $3.7 over Geuntzl at $6.

Jake still has three years at 6 mil which is pretty nice! What do you think J. Hughes signs for after this season? Do you think he pushes for 60+ points on his last year of ELC? Cause 6 mil for ppg seems pretty good value! I'm curious your thoughts on that.

[tweetdrivr]

It really depends on how he does this year. Not sure if they go 8 years or bridge deal. That’ll impact the AAV a lot.

[mdratch]

It really depends on how he does this year. Not sure if they go 8 years or bridge deal. That’ll impact the AAV a lot.

yeah, true that! I assume they lock him down for as long as possible heh

[pumpkinxyz]

Almost forgot about this post. New possible take I'm wondering what people think :

Would you consider keeping both Q. Hughes (let's guess a $7,5M contract) and Carlson?

We have a bench with 2 defensemen slots that do not count against our cap unless I bring them up on the active roster. If I do keep both I'd probably have to bench one and only use him if the other gets injured.

Thoughts?

[lusshouse]

I'd keep Hart ahead of Campbell. He's not losing starts to Jones, and he'll be given every opportunity to shine on a team that will compete for a playoff spot. I'm not sold on Campbell + there's Mrazek in town.

On D, I don't see what's wrong with Carlson AND Hughes as your keepers. They are both ready to lock in top-10 D scoring in the NHL. And you've got Theodore. Smith will be stuck behind much more competition, you'd be lucky to get 30 points.

Which leads us to forwards, where you've got cheaper options. Eichel is a NO GO for me, health and trade situation scare me in your position. I would not go for Jack Hughes too. Robertson is a fine keeper. Too bad you couldn't make a Batherson fit. He'll be good for 50 points on a cheap AAV. It has its worth, knowing the top ELC guys are not really 925k in your league.

So, unless you're way too tight on cap to take the chance that you'll succeed in drafting low AAV guys, I'd keep Carlson. Hronek (depending on $$) might be your best option. He'll be either plan A or B (Leddy) on a weak PP/team. Toews/Byram will take a backseat to Makar, but on a solid PP2/team. I'd avoid Bean. And not a fan of Smith in your context.