[RE-SIGNING] Darnell Nurse

[rataylor22]

The Makar deal is the best contract signed this off-season. The Hamilton deal is the best UFA deal signed this offseason. The Werenski deal is an overpay but less of one than this deal, and the Jones deal is so bad it doesn’t require further comment than what I provided (see link). Makar absolutely is a 1D and Werenski is on the 1/2 border. They play a lot, against good players, and they do not get caved in all game.

There’s lots of #1D in the NHL. Nurse simply isn’t one of them. Lots of defenceman play lots of minutes against tough competition and put up strong results across the board. Nurse, again, just is not one of those players.

https://forums.dobbersports.com/show...ighlight=Jones

[rataylor22]

Sid @NHL_Sid 20h

Darnell Nurse and his contract; a thread:

Sid @NHL_Sid 20h

First off, it should be a consensus that Nurse is an excellent offensive defenceman.

He went on a SH% heater this year; this needs to be known, but at the same time, his isolated impact for expected goals for was 4th in the league for d-men this year. At a /60 rate, it was 10th.

Sid @NHL_Sid 20h

To add on, McDavid and Draisaitl see a jump in their offensive stats whenever Nurse is on the ice.

Offence isn't a problem at all, and he took big strides this season.

But what is the issue then?

The problem is his defence + his play without McDavid and Draisaitl

Sid @NHL_Sid 20h

Let's begin with defence.

Via EvolvingHockey, out of 231 defencemen with at least 200 minutes played, Nurse was:

- 209th in preventing actual goals against
- 220th in preventing expected goals against
- 202nd in preventing shot attempts against

Sid @NHL_Sid 20h

From when Nurse was in a sheltered 3LD role, to when he was a 2LD behind Klefbom, to when he was 1LD, the Oilers allowed fewer chances when Nurse was on the bench.

The Oilers have *always* played worse defensively when Nurse touches the ice, to make it really simple.

Sid @NHL_Sid 20h

Sure, Barrie brought his defence down, but Barrie's defensive stats were also worse with Nurse on the ice. It went both ways.

Even if you think these stats are a team stat (which they aren't), Nurse was terrible in terms of zone entry denial as well, 2nd worst on the team.

zone entries.png

Sid @NHL_Sid 20h

Now, onto his play without McDavid. Let's compare every single defenceman on the Oilers regarding their play with and without McDavid on the ice.

wowy.png

Sid @NHL_Sid 20h

To make it *really* simple, everyone's stats without McDavid drops. That's obvious, no one will put up better numbers with Devin Shore and Kyle Turris than with the best player in the world.

But the big issue here is that Edmonton's bottom 6 is *worse* when Nurse is on the ice.

Sid @NHL_Sid 20h

It doesn't matter if you dislike analytics or not;

Can anyone give me a valid reason (other than his poor defence) for why the Oilers always play worse defensively with Nurse on the ice? For his *entire* career?

Can someone also explain why the bottom 6 is worse with him?

Sid @NHL_Sid 20h

You can argue about Nurse playing tough competition all you want, but:

A) Nurse put up bad defensive stats even when he used to be sheltered

B) What's more significant; playing roughly ~38% of your time against top lines, or ~75% with either McDavid or Draisaitl?

Sid @NHL_Sid 20h

In conclusion, Nurse is a complimentary offensive defenseman who struggles in his own end and has yet to prove he can play well without the best player in the NHL

If anyone can counter this point with evidence other than "watch the games" (because I have), I'd love to hear it

Sid @NHL_Sid 20h

(And no, before someone says it, this isn't me saying Nurse is terrible, he's a liability, I'm trying to run him out of town, etc, it's just an explanation on why he isn't close to being a $9M defenceman)

Plain and simple I love this contract and I hope the Oilers ALWAYS do stupid shit like this, both for McDavid's tenure and following it.

But we simply cannot let statements like "Nurse is good (or even average) defensively" stand unchecked when they are so patently false, let alone favorably comparing his defensive acumen to someone like Adam Pelech.

[Axeman33]

You're putting waaaay too much effort into this, especially if we look at the threads here of the other big contracts signed this summer. If I didn't know better, I'd say you've got a sweet spot for Oiler players LOL.

Or do you just have a crush on me and want my attention?

[rataylor22]

Nobody is making really dumb and demonstrably false statements in other threads

[The Comish]

Who the heck is Sid and why isn't he a GM of an NHL team? Statistics are awesome, especially when someone has an Axe to grind. It's so easy to criticize, but Holland had to make a decision and at least he had the balls to make it. Here's hoping that Nurse plays up to or close to the money he's about to get paid.

[Invictus]

Who the heck is Sid and why isn't he a GM of an NHL team? Statistics are awesome, especially when someone has an Axe to grind.

Pun intended?

[kovalchuk17]

this is an overpay of roughly between 1.5-3m per season. we talk about albatross contracts all the time and this one has the potential (likely even) to be one of the worst in the league possibly before it even kicks in when his sh% inevitably declines next season. the same goes for jones and possibly for werenski. i am fully expecting miro, dougie and makar to be worth every penny.

i dont play in any salary cap leagues so this is a good thing for nurse's multi-cat fantasy monster-ness and he'll be guaranteed big minutes the rest of the way since he makes that much money.

seattle have/couldve had many extra dmen. surprising holland didnt make a side deal for a few solid guys in the 3-5m cap hit range. 2 2nd round picks seems like the going rate for extra top 4 dmen that needed to be dumped for cap space anyways. instead, he traded jones/pick for duncan keith, dumped ethan bear for a filler forward and replaced them with cody ceci and kept barrie (i am ok with barrie at 4.5m per considering his flaws)