US election thread?

[2014olympicgold]

has it always been a situation where a state thats usually red can end up with a close result if the main metropolitan area votes heavily blue ? feels like the rural areas of the state and the more populated areas of the state are not on the same page .

Being in Canada also, I have no real firm idea, but I would assume it's just different values like here in Canada.

Someone in Delhi would have different values than someone in London ON maybe. Just the way cities counties and outside rural counties are set up in the states are a lot tighter together. So in Ontario you go from Toronto to Delhi it would be a few hours of driving, where as the same 2 type of areas in the states would be an hour drive.

[butch]

man ,state of california counts for 55 electoral votes . I knew it was high , but not that high . New York state has 29 in comparison .

[2014olympicgold]

man ,state of california counts for 55 electoral votes . I knew it was high , but not that high . New York state has 29 in comparison .

And Biden got more votes in Cali than the total votes in NY. Population is ridiculous in Cali.

[doulos]

has it always been a situation where a state thats usually red can end up with a close result if the main metropolitan area votes heavily blue ? feels like the rural areas of the state and the more populated areas of the state are not on the same page .

I live in northern ontario and it feels like the same guys getting in over and over (NDP's Bisson and C. Angus)even if the rest of the province shifts to liberal or conservative

The rural/urban divide is very real and a huge issue that I am unsure what the solution is. It certainly exists in Canada as well.

[Pengwin7]

It is unlikely that any of you have a NY Times subscription... but that's best place for analyzing the numbers this morning.

As it stands, it looks like Biden will win if he takes Arizona (likely), Nevada (close!), Wisconsin (tight), and Michigan (tight).
That should give him a razor-thin win.
Pennsylvania wouldn't be needed and even with a ton of votes not counted in PIT & PHI... I'm not sure Biden will take PA.
Trump is currently up 620k... so Biden would need to take 1m/1.4m of the absentee ballots to win... that's a big ask, possible, but 72% rake is hard.
EDIT: Nate Cohn (head dog at NY Times election analytics) suggests that IF Biden carries the remaining absentee ballots by same margin as counted so far... he will overtake Trump.

Right now Michigan is Trump's by a few tens of thousands, but Macomb County (w/Detroit) is only in at a 64% count... call that 2/3rd.
Biden is up about 420k to 200k there... so there's likely another 210k to 100k to come... which is a +110k for Biden... if the precincts to report reflect the 67/32 Biden/Trump split.
I believe most of those votes are directly out of heavily populated Detroit which has a lot of counting. Trump is only up by 23k, currently, in Michigan with 87% reporting.
Detroit(MI)/Windsor(ON) is my hometown stomping grounds... and I've heard Detroit/MI, unsurprisingly, had record-turnout. Good to hear.
EDIT: 9:17am, with Michigan count just hitting 90%... Biden has taken lead in Michigan (Wayne County w/Detroit is still only 70% reporting... suggesting Biden will take MI).

Georgia will stay red, but it's going to be super close once the Atlanta-city counties finish coming in.
DeKalb county (which has a very heavy minority/gay population) is only 80% reporting with those votes split 266k/51k or 83/16 split!
But the remainder, if reflective, will be 60k/12k... that's only a split of 48k, which is not quite enough to rally Trump's 100k lead back to Biden.

It's crazy... but several analysts say that Biden taking the small singles in NE and ME could be the deciders!

Way, way, way closer than I expected.
Trump's base "shows up" - gotta give it to them there - I've always been impressed by Republicans resolve to "do".

[2014olympicgold]

Southern Michigan counties (Lenawee, Monroe, Wayne) are the only really big swing counties in Michigan left. With about 56%-75% being counted so far, you could see another 100k-200k of votes come in over the next few hours.

I think it's something like 60% of the final votes in Michigan need to be for Trump for Trump to win Michigan.

[doulos]

When I went to bed last night the Times had Georgia still leaning with a slight edge for Biden and they have not updated the count.

It's looking extremely good for Biden at this point.

Pretty hollow victory to be honest, but always interesting to watch. Going to be a gong show still.

[fantasyhockeygeek]

The rural/urban divide is very real and a huge issue that I am unsure what the solution is. It certainly exists in Canada as well.

My working theory on this one is that it comes down to perceptions of "us" vs "them". Most people have a hard time taking on social justice issues until they have direct (or at least peripheral) experience with the wrong side of them... this brings things to personal instead of hypothetical. Just like one is much more likely to be active in support of Multiple Sclerosis research if they have a friend or family member with MS (and likewise with cancer, heart disease, diabetes... pick your ailment), I think it's the same... if you've got a friend or family member that has direct experience with systemic discrimination (race, sexual orientation, etc etc) you'll be far more empathetic to those issues rather than treating them as an issue of "others".

Just by the nature of urban density, it's more likely people will have contact with these experiences compared to rural areas that have less density. I don't have any data to prove it beyond my own thoughts here, but I suspect that's the core behind the urban tendency to be more progressive/liberal and the rural tendency to be more conservative/traditional... simply a question of exposure that moves issues more into someone's "us" bucket rather than their "them" bucket.

Going to be fascinating to see how this plays out now with votes close and Trump already committing to take it to the Supreme Court.

[SeaDawg]

My working theory on this one is that it comes down to perceptions of "us" vs "them". Most people have a hard time taking on social justice issues until they have direct (or at least peripheral) experience with the wrong side of them... this brings things to personal instead of hypothetical. Just like one is much more likely to be active in support of Multiple Sclerosis research if they have a friend or family member with MS (and likewise with cancer, heart disease, diabetes... pick your ailment), I think it's the same... if you've got a friend or family member that has direct experience with systemic discrimination (race, sexual orientation, etc etc) you'll be far more empathetic to those issues rather than treating them as an issue of "others".

Just by the nature of urban density, it's more likely people will have contact with these experiences compared to rural areas that have less density. I don't have any data to prove it beyond my own thoughts here, but I suspect that's the core behind the urban tendency to be more progressive/liberal and the rural tendency to be more conservative/traditional... simply a question of exposure that moves issues more into someone's "us" bucket rather than their "them" bucket.

Going to be fascinating to see how this plays out now with votes close and Trump already committing to take it to the Supreme Court.

That makes sense to me. Sort of the same reason why people are more affected by a tragedy happening close to home, like a local bus crash that kills 15 people versus a landslide in South America that kills a few hundred people.

[doulos]

My working theory on this one is that it comes down to perceptions of "us" vs "them". Most people have a hard time taking on social justice issues until they have direct (or at least peripheral) experience with the wrong side of them... this brings things to personal instead of hypothetical. Just like one is much more likely to be active in support of Multiple Sclerosis research if they have a friend or family member with MS (and likewise with cancer, heart disease, diabetes... pick your ailment), I think it's the same... if you've got a friend or family member that has direct experience with systemic discrimination (race, sexual orientation, etc etc) you'll be far more empathetic to those issues rather than treating them as an issue of "others".

Just by the nature of urban density, it's more likely people will have contact with these experiences compared to rural areas that have less density. I don't have any data to prove it beyond my own thoughts here, but I suspect that's the core behind the urban tendency to be more progressive/liberal and the rural tendency to be more conservative/traditional... simply a question of exposure that moves issues more into someone's "us" bucket rather than their "them" bucket.

Going to be fascinating to see how this plays out now with votes close and Trump already committing to take it to the Supreme Court.

Totally makes sense to me. Just not sure how to bridge that gap. It's tough.

[fantasyhockeygeek]

Totally makes sense to me. Just not sure how to bridge that gap. It's tough.

Fully agreed -- asking people to be empathetic to something with which they have no experience is a huge ask. Some people are wired that way, but many aren't. I think this is one of those things where compromise is the only path... liberals/progressives should be annoyed that the pace of change is too small, and conservatives/traditionalists should be annoyed that the direction is wrong. That's how you know it's right... when everyone is unhappy.

[lucafen4]

This is going to stoke the voter fraud fires.

[doulos]

This is going to stoke the voter fraud fires.

Perhaps, but even Mike Pence's rhetoric was much more measured regarding the votes (he made it clear that there would still be vote counting) than Trump's was. In Canada we have Scrutineers for this exact reason. Not sure what the equivalent is in the US, but as long as there is oversight there shouldn't be any concerns about phantom ballots showing up etc. Trump can say whatever he wants, but in this case I don't see how he has much of a leg to stand on.

[2014olympicgold]

Perhaps, but even Mike Pence's rhetoric was much more measured regarding the votes (he made it clear that there would still be vote counting) than Trump's was. In Canada we have Scrutineers for this exact reason. Not sure what the equivalent is in the US, but as long as there is oversight there shouldn't be any concerns about phantom ballots showing up etc. Trump can say whatever he wants, but in this case I don't see how he has much of a leg to stand on.

Yup, nothing changed this yr in the voting procedure too. Just the volume. The fact he keeps pressing calling the game with 5min left is a bold strategy lol.

[Auston'sWilly]

I'm glad the markets are doing well. I'm glad there's no social unrest. I didn't like either speech by the two leaders.

I'm not yelling fraud (yet) but, yes, I do find it peculiar that important swing states (where President Trump was leading last night, in some cases by a large margin - e.g. Michigan) suddenly stopping counting late last night.
For no reason.
All democrat govs.

And then this morning Biden has reversed all those leads.

It is especially peculiar to me that the Dems pushed mail-in voting SO hard all along. And Biden is on tape saying we "have the greatest voter fraud organization in history" - most just dismissed it as another Biden gaffe. It's hard not to wonder now if he accidentally confessed via his own senility.

Anyway, betting odds have shifted heavily back to Sleepy.
Thank God - Senate stayed Republican. Thank God.