The Lafrenière Lottery

[chuckcouples]

Edmonton would be the best place for him to land simply because it would be the most chaotic. The NHL would blow up!!!

Minnesota or Nashville need/deserve him the most.

Florida would waste him as they haven't developed a prospect in a long time.

Winnipeg or New York would be acceptable

Pittsburgh or Toronto would lead to more conspiracy theories and probably for good reasons.

[2014olympicgold]

Go Leafs :'-( mahhhhhhhhhhh

[Eskimo Brother]

Leafs will lose out right at the end here too. Pittsburgh or Edmonton probably win because they have the lottery experiencethat the other teams can't match.

[Dennis]

Leafs will lose out right at the end here too. Pittsburgh or Edmonton probably win because they have the lottery experiencethat the other teams can't match.

Dubas should trade for Taylor Hall's rights.

[hockeyrobot]

Totally thought the Lottery was on at 8pm EST. Wow would I have been surprised. It's on at 6pm EST.

I guess they moved it because of the Raptors vs Bucks?

[Skippy]

Bobrovsky can’t stop a puck and for that, they will be rewarded tonight. Florida becomes Quebec City and Lafreniere signs his monster second contract as the first one given out by the team in 2023.

[PenguinHunter]

I wonder why NHL teams would have agreed to the even split for the 8 losing teams.

Why wouldn't that have done it comparable to the odds of the the usual seeds from 17 to 24.

It would have made way more sense.

And if they are wanting to treat all the teams equal that lost out of the playoffs... should not all the positions be determined via lottery as opposed to the regular season standings.

[GinFizz]

what are the odds for each team? nevermind..

[als_revenge]

I wonder why NHL teams would have agreed to the even split for the 8 losing teams.

Why wouldn't that have done it comparable to the odds of the the usual seeds from 17 to 24.

It would have made way more sense.

And if they are wanting to treat all the teams equal that lost out of the playoffs... should not all the positions be determined via lottery as opposed to the regular season standings.

I wondered if teams really cared that much either way. It's only relevant if the second lottery was required, and you happened to be a loser in the play in round. It just doesn't seem like a thing to me to put up a big fuss about?

[hockeyrobot]

what are the odds for each team?

12.5% per team.

[PenguinHunter]

I wondered if teams really cared that much either way. It's only relevant if the second lottery was required, and you happened to be a loser in the play in round. It just doesn't seem like a thing to me to put up a big fuss about?

If you were Montreal and would have received a 6% chance in a normal lottery compared to the Pittrburgh Penguins would would have received a 1% chance in the normal lottery... then it is 6 times more likely that the lottery ball that got pulled in the original lotter was Monreal's then it was Pittsburgh.

Anaheim Ducks 6.0%
Vancouver Canucks 5.0%
Philadelphia Flyers 3.5%
Minnesota Wild 3.0%
Chicago Blackhawks 2.5%
Florida Panthers 2.0%
Arizona Coyotes 1.5%
Montreal Canadiens 1.0%

Above are the odds of the 8 teams with the best records prior to the lottery in 2019. The 8 teams combined for 24.5% of the total odds.

Of that 24.5 %, ---> 6% of it was Anaheim Ducks (6/24.5) = 24%.
---> 1% of it was Montreal Canadiens (1/24.5) = 4%

So for the 2020 NHL lottery, we know the ball that was pulled was one of the 8 teams. Of those 8 teams, there was a 24% chance that it was the worst of the eight teams that was selected in Phase 1 of the lottery. And only a 4% chance that it was the team with the best regular season from 2020 that was pulled.

[hockeyrobot]

Remember when there was a 2 or 3 day period where it was rumoured Detroit would just have a 25% chance instead of whatever they had? Good times. Fond memories.

[Dr.Brad]

Remember when games?? Remember when Jack Hughes and Kaapo Kakko were “generational?” Or Rasmus Dahlin - not even best DEFENSEMAN (Quinn Hughes), let alone Andrei Svechnikov and Brady Tkachuk, taken after him. There’s no guarantee on Lafreniere. First overall picks are generally solid players, but 60/40 on superstar status.

[Axeman33]

Remember when games?? Remember when Jack Hughes and Kaapo Kakko were “generational?” Or Rasmus Dahlin - not even best DEFENSEMAN (Quinn Hughes), let alone Andrei Svechnikov and Brady Tkachuk, taken after him. There’s no guarantee on Lafreniere. First overall picks are generally solid players, but 60/40 on superstar status.

I don't remember JHughes or Kakko being called generational but I agree with the rest of your post.

[hockeyrobot]

Remember when games?? Remember when Jack Hughes and Kaapo Kakko were “generational?” Or Rasmus Dahlin - not even best DEFENSEMAN (Quinn Hughes), let alone Andrei Svechnikov and Brady Tkachuk, taken after him. There’s no guarantee on Lafreniere. First overall picks are generally solid players, but 60/40 on superstar status.

It's true. Still helps to get the pieces when your team is garbage.