Originally Posted by
The Guvnah
I'm changing my mind! I wish you had posted this earlier... because when you break it down, Ovi has a great chance to beat Gretzky.
Ovi currently has 695 goals in 1135 games for a career pace of 0.61 GPG. This season, he's scoring at a rate of 0.73 GPG so let's assume he continues that and finishes with 59 goals in 81 games. That gives him 717 goals over his career.
I took Blayze's list and cherry-picked the more elite goal scoring forwards and looked at some numbers: goal-scoring pace over age 35 to 40 seasons (even if they played longer), goal-scoring pace from rookie year to age 34 season, and the percentage of decline between those two paces. I'm totally nerding out here, but see below:
Format: Player - G/GP in seasons 35 to 40, GPG in seasons 35 to 40/GPG rookie to age 34, percentage of decline
Howe - 192/428, 0.44/0.47, 6.4%
Jagr - 60/200, 0.3/0.52, 42.3%
Selanne - 185/380, 0.49/0.52, 5.8%
Recchi - 115/399, 0.29/0.39, 25.6%
Messier - 173/480, 0.36/0.44, 18.1%
Bucyk - 219/465, 0.47/0.32, +46.9%
Roberts - 88/282, 0.31/0.39, 20.5%
Andreychuk - 117/439, 0.27/0.45, 40%
Br. Hull - 155/403, 0.38/0.68, 44.1%
Yzerman - 65/258, 0.25/0.5, 50%
Shanahan - 123/338, 0.36/0.45, 20%
Nieuwendyk - 95/305, 0.31/0.49, 36.7%
Lemieux - 77/170, 0.45/0.82, 45.1%
Robitaille - 78/307, 0.25/0.52, 51.9%
Mullen - 102/292, 0.35/0.57, 38.6%
A few things to note... Bobby Hull was omitted because he played his age 35 to 40 seasons in the WHA. We all knew Gordie Howe was a freak of nature and his minuscule decline further illustrates that but also -- Teemu Freaking Selanne! One of my favourite players of all time, that dude barely missed a beat after age 34. Johnny Bucyk is an anomaly. Guy's career high before age 35 was 31 goals scored in his age 34 season. He scored 51 goals in his age 35 season and continued to light it up until his last season.
So, how does this relate to Ovechkin? Let's take a look at the worse case scenario. Well, not worse case. Worse case would be Ovi suffering a career-ending injury in his next game and he ends up with 695 goals. Let's assume he stays relatively healthy. He's averaged 81 games over his last five seasons so let's cut him some slack and say he plays 77 games per season over the next six seasons to bring him to age 40. That's 462 total games played. Luc Robitaille (another one of my all time favourites) declined by 51.9% playing on a couple stacked Detroit teams and losing a season at age 38 due to the lockout for the biggest decline among all that I looked at.
If Ovi's pace declines by 51.9% starting next season, he'll score 134 goals in 462 games for a career total of 851, missing the mark by 43 goals and settling in at number 2 all time. Still a massive accomplishment but Ovechkin ain't no Luc Robitaille. As much as I love Lucky Luc, he declined sharply in his last few seasons and was never the same kind of force that Ovi has been.
If Ovi's pace declines by the average of those fifteen players (26.55%), he beats Gretzky. He scores 208 goals for 925 total, beating the Great One by 31 goals.
The thing is, Ovi is anything but average. Even before I did this, I've always sort of compared him to Teemu Selanne in many ways. So let's say the Great Eight mimics the Finnish Flash and only declines by 5.8%. That would give him 263 goals for 980 total, beating Gretzky by 86 goals.
I know that even after all this word-vomit, it's a bit of a simplistic way to look at it, but as long as Ovi stays relatively healthy over the next six years, and there's no reason to assume that he won't, he's pretty much a lock for number two all time -- and that's if he starts scoring an average of 22 goals per season starting next year. Selanne averaged 38 goals per 77 games from age 35 to 40 and then potted 47 more goals to get him to age 43.
After looking at all this, I really think he'll do it.