Erik Karlsson - Perception and Reality

[ross10019]

I posted this in another thread, but wanted to post in a dedicated thread as I'd love to hear people's impressions.

This is about the perception that Karlsson is injury-prone and/or that he is beginning to decline due to past injury issues.

As a Karlsson owner, I'm definitely watching closely this year to see if there is any impact of last season's groin problems - but I think generally the injury concern is overstated.

The most serious injury was the Achilles tendon being cut in that awful incident a few years ago, which was obviously a freak injury, and in the following 4 years he played 82, 82, 82 and 77 games putting up 82 and 74 points two of those years. In 2017/18 he missed 11 games owing to surgery to repair torn tendons in his left foot, but played healthy the rest of the season putting up 62 pts in 71.

Last year was the first year where he encountered non-freak injuries causing him serious missed time, with the groin issues costing him most of the end of the regular season - he still put up 45 in 53, despite a really slow start (7 pts in his first 18 games), so he finished with 38 pts in 35 games and had that excellent playoff run with 16 pts in 19 and 51 shots and 33 blocks to boot.

More importantly, the guy is tough as nails when it comes to playing through injury - in the 2017 playoffs, it was revealed that he had been playing through the end of the regular season and into the playoffs with not one but two fractures in his left heel, and he still put up 18 pts in 19 games in that great run, playing a ridonkulous average of 28:08 minutes a night. And last year, it was obvious that he rushed back from that groin injury to contribute to that playoff run, which led to the need for offseason groin surgery. The guy is a warrior.

My bet is Karlsson puts up at least 0.8 pts/game for the remainder of his 8-year contract, and more like 0.9 over the next 5 years, and misses max 5 games/year due to the usual wear and tear.

In my opinion, he is a great BUY LOW now, due to the perceived concern regarding injury risk/decline.

[ericdaoust]

I think he'll be more brittle than you think as he gets older. He's tough but big injuries add up and it will take its toll, especially as he continues to be among the league leaders in ice time.

I actually agree with the "buy low" statement. The problem is most people handle information incorrectly and early signs of decline in durability will be interpreted by many as "sell now for whatever you can get". If someone wants to sell Karlsson, I'll be there ready to buy despite the added injury concerns.

[MZac]

I think he'll be more brittle than you think as he gets older. He's tough but big injuries add up and it will take its toll, especially as he continues to be among the league leaders in ice time.

I actually agree with the "buy low" statement. The problem is most people handle information incorrectly and early signs of decline in durability will be interpreted by many as "sell now for whatever you can get". If someone wants to sell Karlsson, I'll be there ready to buy despite the added injury concerns.

Agree with this. Additionally I think he'll be an excellent candidate for the Kawhi Leonard treatment as he ages. San Jose should only really care about the playoffs, they should continue to coast in for years. I wouldn't be surprised if he missed a lot of time during the stretch runs (also known as fantasy hockey playoffs). After owning him last season I feel like he could turn Letang-ish, who when he's in the roster will continue to be elite but you have to be ok with him missing some time.

Now if he plays 82 games this season and scores at a 0.9ppg pace I may change my tune again. There still aren't very many D men I'd rather own in the league, if any.

Right now for this season I'd have carlson and burns ahead of him.. And not by much. So he's still basically as elite as they come as far as I'm concerned.

[Leafs&G86]

I have him in a 20 team keeper that includes plus/minus and he’s killing me. Tried moving him for Morgan Reilly and was immediately rejected.

[2014olympicgold]

Still a 55-75pt/82game d-man. But he's really not beneficial to a real life hockey team.

He'll prolly be around 70games played. I'd just stomach the +/- issues he'll bring, either by trying to own a Giordano to balance out the -20 you'll get with Karlsson, or just fully dive into the bad +/- you'll get by owning other forwards with bad +/- but good point totals.

[Pengwin7]

Personally, I don't think he's injury prone or declining.
I think his mind is a bit off.
He was an elite play-making, decision-making defenseman.
His hands, tools, hockey sense... they're all there... and that stuff doesn't decline hard for a D-man.

But... shit with babies and miscarriages is enough to **** people up pretty good.
You'd have to have been through it... it's powerful, especially what it does to the woman.
And if you care enough about the woman... then it sits with the man every day.
You bring it to work.
You think about your kid dying every hour of every day and you're just waiting for the phone call and your world to unravel.

As fantasy hockey goes, I'm not touching him.
He's a good man and he'll be distracted as a father for the rest of his life.
I wish him well, but his career of putting up big points is over... because hockey is a distant 2nd or 3rd in his current world.

[Fighting_Emu]

I dont think a miscarriage wrecks you for life. Agree to disagree I guess. i think Hoffmans f@ckface girlfriend exacerbated the issue and hes dealt with it now. Theyve moved- theyre happy- a miscarriage is not comfortable and it will stick with you but I dont think it destroys a person. Theyll get preggers again- pour all kinds of love and affection into their little bundle of joy- their life will be deepened and enriched in ways they never imagined. Life will go on, the world will keep turning. i dont want to be dismissive here but I think the wording here is a bit ominous. If youve experienced this- you SHOULD be able to find a way to get over it. The people involved did NOTHING wrong so they should be able to find a way to work let go of the guilt and shame that comes with it. Its a natural part of life and in 99% of cases its completely out of your control. Theyre good people but theyre strong people- this issue wont affect his NHL forward going forward imho.

That team is dealing with regression all over the lineup and when they get a groove going EK will explode. He does this every year- lol! Its not always at the start- last year it WAS though.

His points per game by quarter last year:

12 in 21
23 in 20
10 in 10
0 in 2

As an owner Im calm as a bomb right now he started a tad slow and then put up better than a ppg the rest of the way. Once the team finds his footing he'll go off (and again 8 in 11 is still ridiculous for a Dman- lol! What are our expectations for EK? Are we clamoring for a 100 point season??). Dmen rarely put up consistent stretches. They slump and explode through the season as they produce off the back of the fickle mistress that is the PP. EK IS fine and will be better than fine going forward. Lets not forget for all the relief we felt about his production last year- it WAS an adjustment playing with two elite offensive Dmen. He might struggle as the PP pie is only so big. i just dont think PTSD is going to be an impact going forward (again IMHO).

[Fighting_Emu]

Shes such a dirt bucket but dang shes hawt- lol!!

https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&url=...AAAAAdAAAAABAD

[ross10019]

I dont think a miscarriage wrecks you for life. Agree to disagree I guess. i think Hoffmans f@ckface girlfriend exacerbated the issue and hes dealt with it now. Theyve moved- theyre happy- a miscarriage is not comfortable and it will stick with you but I dont think it destroys a person. Theyll get preggers again- pour all kinds of love and affection into their little bundle of joy- their life will be deepened and enriched in ways they never imagined. Life will go on, the world will keep turning. i dont want to be dismissive here but I think the wording here is a bit ominous. If youve experienced this- you SHOULD be able to find a way to get over it. The people involved did NOTHING wrong so they should be able to find a way to work let go of the guilt and shame that comes with it. Its a natural part of life and in 99% of cases its completely out of your control. Theyre good people but theyre strong people- this issue wont affect his NHL forward going forward imho.

That team is dealing with regression all over the lineup and when they get a groove going EK will explode. He does this every year- lol! Its not always at the start- last year it WAS though.

His points per game by quarter last year:

12 in 21
23 in 20
10 in 10
0 in 2

As an owner Im calm as a bomb right now he started a tad slow and then put up better than a ppg the rest of the way. Once the team finds his footing he'll go off (and again 8 in 11 is still ridiculous for a Dman- lol! What are our expectations for EK? Are we clamoring for a 100 point season??). Dmen rarely put up consistent stretches. They slump and explode through the season as they produce off the back of the fickle mistress that is the PP. EK IS fine and will be better than fine going forward. Lets not forget for all the relief we felt about his production last year- it WAS an adjustment playing with two elite offensive Dmen. He might struggle as the PP pie is only so big. i just dont think PTSD is going to be an impact going forward (again IMHO).

I agree with this take. To supplement:

- I think, in the end, the family man that he is is going to HELP, not hinder, his production. He'll have a beautiful family, and once the recent fears are long in the rearview mirror, hell be playing for them if anything. I see parallels with Nick Lidstrom big-time there - the guy could have won Norrises until his 40s but chose to retire for family reasons AND because he only wanted to play as long as he was elite - that's what Karlsson is like, but he ain't going to ride off until he's had similar success as a guy like Lidstrom, which brings me to...

- He is a winner, and takes pride in winning, not just amassing stats. That's why he signed in San Jose, and he has too much pride to let anything, including his family, interfere with his contributing to the team at an elite level. Particularly since the Sharks are win now and Cup contenders for the next few years at least. And that's the Sharks expectation as well.

- Re plus minus. I too think that's temporary. Even in Ottawa, other than that one tank season, he did relatively well in that category. The guy is one of the very best possession dmen in the whole league, his numbers are off the charts, that will translate to solid plus/minus eventually.

- Re Leafs86 post saying he couldn't trade him straight up for Rielly. Well I'm not surprised. Rielly is legit top 3-5 fantasy D in the league and 4+ years younger, so in a dynasty I too would not make that trade straight up. It doesn't mean Karlsson's value is falling!

[lucafen4]

Peng didn't say it wrecks peoples lives... he said it ****s you up pretty good.
It's almost impossible to comment on the level of impact this would have on lives.
Even if you've gone through it personally - the impact it would have on another couple could be entirely different.
it's an extremely personal, emotional event.
It can wreck lives. It has.

Some bounce back shortly there after.
Some take months.
Some are never the same.

[ericdaoust]

To add to that, some people thrive at the rink when personal tragedy strikes. It's their place to get away and focus on something else. We don't know how it'll impact Karlsson. Everyone copes differently.

If you go to a funeral and there's 50 people in the room, you'll see 50 different reactions. Everyone is different.

[Fighting_Emu]

It's impossible to know and not even a discussion I really want to have on a fantasy hockey forum. I'm not buying that he'll never be the same because of it. Not even a little bit. Moving on...

[Fighting_Emu]

You bring it to work.
You think about your kid dying every hour of every day and you're just waiting for the phone call and your world to unravel.

As fantasy hockey goes, I'm not touching him.
He's a good man and he'll be distracted as a father for the rest of his life.
I wish him well, but his career of putting up big points is over...

Ive been reached out to for my comment on this.

I just want to clarify: I could not disagree more with the quoted statement. I do not want to be flippant. I really dont want to tell people how to griev. I actually dont care to weigh in much at ll on a fantasy hockey thread.

if youre newer to pools and youre thinking of dropping/trading EK based on this- then I AM providing a counter-narrative. I do not think there will be any adverse effects at all. Im not going to weigh inabout the exact subject anymore except to say I do not think this is an issue in line with PTSD or a similar life long impact. In my opinion- this will NOT affect karlssons hockey career which is what I WOULD like to weigh in on. Historically he has had years where he struggles early and I think SJs struggles overall are the resultant factors here that put him on a 70 point pace.

No disrespect intended- I dont want to minimlaize anyones personal experience. Im literally just saying I would not make any fantasy hockey decsions based on this information PERSONALLY. Thats all...

[Rodgort]

Still a 55-75pt/82game d-man. But he's really not beneficial to a real life hockey team.

He'll prolly be around 70games played. I'd just stomach the +/- issues he'll bring, either by trying to own a Giordano to balance out the -20 you'll get with Karlsson, or just fully dive into the bad +/- you'll get by owning other forwards with bad +/- but good point totals.

I just want to add here that I do not think the bad +/- is on him but is instead on having Jones and Dell as the Sharks goalie tandem. If he was playing in front of an average goalie his +/- would be much better