Olofsson Off PP1

[SeaDawg]

Calder Memorial Trophy Winners who were not a top 10 pick in the last 17yrs:

Panarin (UFA) – 2015-16 (24yrs old)
Tyler Myers (12^th) – 2009-10 (20yrs old)
Steve Mason (69^th) – 2008-09 (21yrs old)
Andrew Raycroft (135^th) – 2003-04 (23yrs old)
Barret Jackman (17^th) – 2002-03 (21yrs old)


They were all over 20yrs old, and most were considered top picks still. Olofsson is 24yrs old, and was 181st overall pick.

There you go. Other than Barzal, who was #16 overall, and Panarin (who was a special case being a UFA coming over from the KHL), no other forwards on that list. Not to take anything away from Olofsson, but history shows he is almost certainly limited to relatively meager results this season.

[Fighting_Emu]

A couple things- I dont disagree BUT:

- His release has been noted Im not going to say top ten or anything but basically in the same tier as the best shooters in the league. Some guys build a whole career off of that. His shooting % will regreess but I believe he'll have one thats hiostorically higher than the average (Think Semin).

- I dont think Olofsson is JUST arelease. He has toiled in European leagues, the A, and at each level he may not have been "the guy" when he started but he was by the time he ended.

- I like the Ghost comparison- but look how much leeway we STILL give Ghost? Lol- if youre worried about his trade value I dont think its going down.

- Another comparison might be Lindholm- he IS dependant to some degree on linemates BUT he also compliments them when hes put there. In that clip I dont think Eichel is sweating having a triggerman to defer too- that cross seam was gorgeous- lol! Also- lets have a little patiennce- hes still a rookie- asking him to be a playdriver right out of the gate is a tall order. As he matures I expect his reliance on teammates and the PP will wane.

Thesis:

The main point is that in every league he wroks at it- figures it out, gets better, and then moves up. Hes not a "finished product" in the NHL right now. His success is predicated on one trick currently but its a trick only 20 or so players in the world can pull off- lol! The key point for me is he has that hunger that great players have AND hes playing with a couple (borderline) generational talents in Ike and Doll. I think hes going to keep improving.

In a one year Im bullish on 60. In a keeper I dont know if he has the IQ to break the ppg barrier- Ive been famously wrong on my predictions buying hard on guys like Skinner/Kane. A key difference is that his goals arent coming off the back of insane volume. As good a predictor as sogs can be- I wonder if with some players its a sign of not knowing when the pass is the better play. Certainly Seguion/Matthews/Eiuchel/Tavares can all make plays at an ethereal level as well but I DO wonder if some players have such high sog totals due to a slight lack of hockey IQ. So far he has NOT been a sog pig. Not sure if thats a good or a bad thing- lol!

Sidenote (A bit of a de-rail feel free to skip):

Im in talks to move him for Hamilton. Thats based off a few things though- were rducing keepers so theres a good chance I wont be able to keep Goaloff. My D has shat the bed outside of Burns. I was pretty happy with my autodraft because CBS favors Dmen but Nurse has been adequate, Ghost has been awful and Faulk is borderline droppable. I DID drop DeAngelo and hes not looking too bad. Lastly Ive had a man crush on Hamilton forever and I feel like he can be a top guy. If he doesnt hes still a better number two and an easier re-draft target that Goalof.

The full offer was Nurse/Olof for Hamilton/Gourde. Im ok with Goalof for Hamilton but Im trying to avoid Gourde as I own him in another league and my research leads me to believe he will struggle this year. Until he is truly promoted (and hes shown a startling lack of chemistry in limited viewings so far) or traded (and that can be its own can of worms)- I dont think were looking at a 65 point Gourde (Free fun fact- Ken Campbell went way outside the box and predicted him on record as his Calder pick in the year he came up to the bigs! i remember because I got him absolutely free in a ridiculously deep league- hahaha!. I countered with Nurse being replaced by Faulk (so Mailton for Goalof/Gourde for Faulk) or even more troubling I asked to "upgrade" Gourde to Gusev and keep Nurse in- but although Im not necessarily troubled by the lack of production from Goose yet- I am VERY troubled by the reduction in icetime.

[dejeanneret]

A couple things- I dont disagree BUT:

- His release has been noted Im not going to say top ten or anything but basically in the same tier as the best shooters in the league. Some guys build a whole career off of that. His shooting % will regreess but I believe he'll have one thats hiostorically higher than the average (Think Semin).

- I dont think Olofsson is JUST arelease. He has toiled in European leagues, the A, and at each level he may not have been "the guy" when he started but he was by the time he ended.

- I like the Ghost comparison- but look how much leeway we STILL give Ghost? Lol- if youre worried about his trade value I dont think its going down.

- Another comparison might be Lindholm- he IS dependant to some degree on linemates BUT he also compliments them when hes put there. In that clip I dont think Eichel is sweating having a triggerman to defer too- that cross seam was gorgeous- lol! Also- lets have a little patiennce- hes still a rookie- asking him to be a playdriver right out of the gate is a tall order. As he matures I expect his reliance on teammates and the PP will wane.

Thesis:

The main point is that in every league he wroks at it- figures it out, gets better, and then moves up. Hes not a "finished product" in the NHL right now. His success is predicated on one trick currently but its a trick only 20 or so players in the world can pull off- lol! The key point for me is he has that hunger that great players have AND hes playing with a couple (borderline) generational talents in Ike and Doll. I think hes going to keep improving.

In a one year Im bullish on 60. In a keeper I dont know if he has the IQ to break the ppg barrier- Ive been famously wrong on my predictions buying hard on guys like Skinner/Kane. A key difference is that his goals arent coming off the back of insane volume. As good a predictor as sogs can be- I wonder if with some players its a sign of not knowing when the pass is the better play. Certainly Seguion/Matthews/Eiuchel/Tavares can all make plays at an ethereal level as well but I DO wonder if some players have such high sog totals due to a slight lack of hockey IQ. So far he has NOT been a sog pig. Not sure if thats a good or a bad thing- lol!

Sidenote (A bit of a de-rail feel free to skip):

Im in talks to move him for Hamilton. Thats based off a few things though- were rducing keepers so theres a good chance I wont be able to keep Goaloff. My D has shat the bed outside of Burns. I was pretty happy with my autodraft because CBS favors Dmen but Nurse has been adequate, Ghost has been awful and Faulk is borderline droppable. I DID drop DeAngelo and hes not looking too bad. Lastly Ive had a man crush on Hamilton forever and I feel like he can be a top guy. If he doesnt hes still a better number two and an easier re-draft target that Goalof.

The full offer was Nurse/Olof for Hamilton/Gourde. Im ok with Goalof for Hamilton but Im trying to avoid Gourde as I own him in another league and my research leads me to believe he will struggle this year. Until he is truly promoted (and hes shown a startling lack of chemistry in limited viewings so far) or traded (and that can be its own can of worms)- I dont think were looking at a 65 point Gourde (Free fun fact- Ken Campbell went way outside the box and predicted him on record as his Calder pick in the year he came up to the bigs! i remember because I got him absolutely free in a ridiculously deep league- hahaha!. I countered with Nurse being replaced by Faulk (so Mailton for Goalof/Gourde for Faulk) or even more troubling I asked to "upgrade" Gourde to Gusev and keep Nurse in- but although Im not necessarily troubled by the lack of production from Goose yet- I am VERY troubled by the reduction in icetime.

Such a good post, and I think is spot on with Olofsson. Rep to you.

The main (but not only) thing with Olofsson is his shot and release. It's his best attribute, and to an extent one that's innate and can't be learned. You either have it or don't. It's been talked about a lot in the hockey media. I've actually heard people compare it to Ovechkin's. I don't know about that, am not opining on it one way or the other, and certainly am not suggesting that he'll achieve anything resembling the level of success that Ovechkin has. But suffice it to say that some people (and not just local beat writers) who talk/write about this stuff for a living apparently believe the comparison of that aspect of his game is not totally off-base or asinine to say so publicly. And more importantly, the Sabres know what he brings in that department. It's why as a rookie he's with Eichel and a feature on the power play in the spot that he is.

Make no mistake, he's not a superstar/transcendent talent. Like almost all other players, there will be ups and downs and growing pains along the way. The NHL ain't easy and teams learn and adjust. But as stated above, the other major attribute that Olofsson brings is intangible -- he's proven himself along the way to be a conscientious player who's willing to work and strive to improve his game. He may never be the most complete player or widely considered an upper tier guy league-wide. But for fantasy purposes, that often doesn't matter. There are plenty of really outstanding players with enormous real-world value and middling or little fantasy value. And there are lots of more limited/lesser real-world players with significant fantasy value based on what they do bring.

As I see it, the bottom line is that Olofsson is a heck of a trigger man, and that's precisely why he's in Buffalo and what he's being paid to do. And equally importantly, the Sabres have a core group of guys who are or have superstar potential, and who ought to be able to get Olofsson the puck pretty consistently in high quality areas to do what he does best.

[hockeyrobot]

As I see it, the bottom line is that Olofsson is a heck of a trigger man, and that's precisely why he's in Buffalo and what he's being paid to do. And equally importantly, the Sabres have a core group of guys who are or have superstar potential, and who ought to be able to get Olofsson the puck pretty consistently in high quality areas to do what he does best.

10000% agree and exactly why I never overpay for these guys who are mainly great because of their line placement. It can disappear at anytime. I will gladly draft them as a sleeper or pick them up for free....but overpay? Never.

Also...missed opportunity here to call this thread "OlOFFsson PP1"