Factors to answer your "should I pick up X" question

[RizzeeDizzee]

Yes, it's that time of year. Players who weren't drafted are scoring or are finding themselves deployed favorably, such that the inevitable question arises as to whether you should pick up that player? And although it's impossible to give "one size fits all" advice, here are what I believe should be factors in deciding whether to pick someone up.

First, the factors that have less to do with the player himself:

1) Do you have limited pick-ups? If so, you have to be more careful about using them. But by the same token most of the valuable pick-ups do happen early. Still, if you have fewer than a handful to use all season you probably don't want to reflexively grab someone on the basis of what occurred in one game or even two.

2) Will it cause you cap issues? This is of course a factor only in salary cap leagues. The good news is often these early pick-up players are young and don't make much. The issue, however, is if they fail and you need to drop them later and pick someone up, then maybe what's left will be more expensive. So consider not just the cap ramifications of this move but what also could happen if you need to drop this player later.

3) How will this affect your waiver position? Some leagues have free agents claimed ala the waiver process in the NHL, where one team has first dibs, and then it goes from there. If you have first waiver wire position it's important that you don't squander that for someone who won't pan out.

4) Can this player be sent down without clearing NHL waivers? If so, then he's a far riskier bet to grab than someone who has to clear waivers to be demoted.

5) Who will you have to drop? This is often overlooked, but is incredibly important. Don't pick up a player unless you can see a path for him to succeed more than the guy you're dropping. Look at all the folks who dropped non-Larkin Detroit forwards early last season and lived to regret it when they caught fire in the second half.

Okay, now that those general factors have been noted, let's look at specifics:

1) Is this player only doing well because he's taking the spot of someone injured? If so, then you have to assess whether this player has a chance not only maintaining favorable deployment once the injured player returns, but of sticking with the club at all.

2) Is this player getting any PP Time? If so, that is a big positive, although by the same token if he's getting that time but not using it well that could hurt him. But PP time is precious and if this player is receiving it, chances are he has a better chance of being worthy of a pick-up.

3) If he's a forward, can he play more than one position? Positional flexibilty can be a blessing or a curse, since if someone is a pure wing then chances are less that he'd be able to be dropped down to center another line. That being said, a player with positional flexibility has an arguably better chance of sticking with the club.

4) What is his salary? Separate from the cap issue is how much a player earns, since big contracts get longer looks in the top six or, if a rearguard, top four. A player to whom the team has committed big bucks is likely a safer pick-up than one who earns less.

5) What are the salaries of other players? If this player makes less than some who are less favorably deployed for the moment, then his spot is certainly more at risk.

6) How is he playing, beyond just the scoresheet? Poolies will reflexively look and see that a player had two points and automatically figure he's worthy of a pick-up. But you have to dig deeper to see how many SOG he had, what his offensive zone starting percentage has been, and what his line/defensive combinations were. Frozen Tools is your friend here.

7) If he's not a rookie, has he started fast in the past only to fade? Some players start hot and then fade. Michael Ferland comes to mind. Check past years to see if he has a track record of early season success which doesn't last long.

Are these all the factors that could be assessed? Certainly not; but hopefully they give you a mental checklist to help determine whether a pick-up is a wise one. Of course I invite others to respond and add even more factors. Good luck, and may your pick-ups all work out great for you.

[hockeyrobot]

Great recap Rizzee!

I need something like this for NFL.

[Dr.Brad]

That was a really good article to post. Thanks.

My only added thought? I have habitually had one roster spot for the purpose of “exchanges” based on team schedules. Absolutely no loyalty to last week’s players, or sometimes last night’s. If I can use 2 adds to get 5 days’ stats, obviously not sacrificing a star I want to keep for the season?? This year, one of my redraft standard yahoo leagues it has been Kapanen to start, 2 games in 4 days, but I’ll find someone else soon since he’s a redundant bench player by late next week. Maybe even Sheary or Mittelstadt (always based on schedule), but I’ll ditch them by 10/13 for category need.

[RizzeeDizzee]

That was a really good article to post. Thanks.

My only added thought? I have habitually had one roster spot for the purpose of “exchanges” based on team schedules. Absolutely no loyalty to last week’s players, or sometimes last night’s. If I can use 2 adds to get 5 days’ stats, obviously not sacrificing a star I want to keep for the season?? This year, one of my redraft standard yahoo leagues it has been Kapanen to start, 2 games in 4 days, but I’ll find someone else soon since he’s a redundant bench player by late next week. Maybe even Sheary or Mittelstadt (always based on schedule), but I’ll ditch them by 10/13 for category need.

Good point - whether or not you have roster flexibility like this, or to stream, will impact this type of decision.

[Wonko]

That was a really good article to post. Thanks.

My only added thought? I have habitually had one roster spot for the purpose of “exchanges” based on team schedules. Absolutely no loyalty to last week’s players, or sometimes last night’s. If I can use 2 adds to get 5 days’ stats, obviously not sacrificing a star I want to keep for the season?? This year, one of my redraft standard yahoo leagues it has been Kapanen to start, 2 games in 4 days, but I’ll find someone else soon since he’s a redundant bench player by late next week. Maybe even Sheary or Mittelstadt (always based on schedule), but I’ll ditch them by 10/13 for category need.

Great point.

I do this in both my leagues. I try to always keep one floating spot that I don't get married to. I just maximize man games. Very occasionally this pick turns out to be worth keeping on my roster all year, in which case, I pick a new low man on the totem pole, but that is pretty rare and not a bad problem to have

[stevegamer]

That was a really good article to post. Thanks.

My only added thought? I have habitually had one roster spot for the purpose of “exchanges” based on team schedules. Absolutely no loyalty to last week’s players, or sometimes last night’s. If I can use 2 adds to get 5 days’ stats, obviously not sacrificing a star I want to keep for the season?? This year, one of my redraft standard yahoo leagues it has been Kapanen to start, 2 games in 4 days, but I’ll find someone else soon since he’s a redundant bench player by late next week. Maybe even Sheary or Mittelstadt (always based on schedule), but I’ll ditch them by 10/13 for category need.

The one caveat I have to add to this is while you need to make sure to have a spot to do this, remember that the player you pick up to do it with can absolutely outplay your expectations enough to move out of that spot and on to your roster. If you stream a guy who is productive, you need to figure out if he's performing well enough to keep overall, because he may not be the guy to drop.

I took over a team needing building (I'd say rebuilding, but they didn't seem to ever have been successful as far back as I could see) and I realized we had a GM or two who liked to stream. So I watched the streamers, and saw who could outplay my bench, which is deep, and them grabbed them for actual use.

[Dr.Brad]

Absolutely, there’s that risk. It’s “possible” I got burned on this last year... just after New Years, I picked up some back-up GK for a spot start against Philly, and was thrilled to get a shutout by this guy, Jordan something. Dropped him the next day. Jake Allen was the starter, right?

No, I didn’t win that league...

[RizzeeDizzee]

Anyone else have advice to add?